Swanz's Sandlot

The 40-Man Roster

2010-10-16T15:00:00.000-04:00

MLB teams play most of the regular season using a 25-man active roster, typically comprised of 11 pitchers and 14 position players, or 12/13 for teams preferring a seven-man bullpen. Teams then play with expanded rosters beginning September 1, enabling teams to give their top prospects “cups of coffee” with a little low-pressure big league experience, or to occasionally reward an organizational soldier for an excellent season and lengthy minor league career.

Forecasting a team for an upcoming season typically means, at best, an in-depth look at the projected 25-man roster – the team as it stands “on paper” before a single game has been played. Sometimes it means even less, simply giving a cursory look at a few notable players and taking an educated guess at how the final standings might appear. This strategy for projecting team performance is misguided, however, for the simple reason that it takes many more than 25 players to get through a six-month regular season with any hope for postseason play. In 2010, AL teams used an average of 36 position players (range: 32 – Chicago to 43 – Boston) and 21 pitchers (range: 17 – Tampa Bay to 25 – Boston, Kansas City). NL teams shuffled their rosters even more frequently, using an average of 43 position players (range: 40 – San Diego to 56 – Florida) and an average of 23 pitchers (range: 19 – San Diego, San Francisco to 31 – Florida). In even the best case, where most players on a given team avoid injury or dramatic underperformance, you can expect to see upwards of 50 players donning the team’s uniform.

Why, then, is more attention not given to overall organizational health and depth, and not just the perfect-world 25-man rosters that we all love to dream on before the first pitch of spring training? Frankly, it would be more time-consuming to do this (especially for major media outlets), and would deal with numerous players who will never sniff the big leagues at a time when much of the general public already has little interest in non-star MLB players. As far as televised and print media is concerned, there isn’t interest (and thus money) to gain in taking a deeper look at the sport, and this is just one example of that principle at work.

That said, it is my contention that there is a lot to be gleaned from observing why and how MLB teams make decisions about managing their vital and finite 40-man roster spots. I think that many of us (speaking as an avid baseball fan) often underestimate how vital depth and talent retention is for an MLB team. I also think that in some cases, especially with decisions as relatively minor as whether or not to add a prospect to the 40-man roster, it is easy to overlook the opportunity cost and/or potential upside of a given decision.

And speaking as someone who thinks that the top priority of every MLB organization must be to pour resources into scouting, signing, and developing potential star-level talent should they be concerned with long-term on-field success, I see the nature of roster management as a great and often overlooked argument in favor of principles such as system balance. It is very popular in minor league baseball and prospecting circles to emphasize tools and upside, often discrediting players who may project to top out as something less than a potential all-star player. You’ll find few people, myself included, who would advocate against investing heavily into trying to develop a given team’s next core of young and cost-controlled star players. There is a place for lower-profile players as well, however, and it’s on any team’s roster, especially those of small-market clubs that aren’t going to be able to otherwise spend their way to a capable roster. And sometimes those kinds of players exceed the modest expectations set for them.

A team doesn’t need a star at every position to succeed, much less attempt to meet an impractical and unachievable goal such as worrying about finding 50+ very talented players for a 162-game season. But when, say, Boston lost both their starter (Jacoby Ellsbury) and backup (Mike Cameron) in center field early this past season, it made a tremendous difference in their ability to stay competitive until late September when a capable replacement could be called upon from the lower rungs of the team’s planned depth chart. On top of a slew of other injuries, their Plan C - a minor league journeyman named Darnell McDonald - posted a .766 OPS in 363 plate appearances, contributing about a win more than could be expected from the pool of freely-available talent. Prior to 2010, no one would have foreseen McDonald racking up a remotely notable number of PA, much less contributing in a positive way to an 89-win season.

Key injuries and unexpected underperformance can severely damage a team; it’s the wise use of all means of talent acquisition, depth in both the upper and lower levels of the farm system, and prudent talent retention when possible that can salvage an otherwise lost season. These decisions have tangible benefits not only in the win-loss column, but in attendance and revenue as well. Some lousy teams will draw nice crowds for meaningless games in September, and great teams might have trouble filling Tropicana Field. But doing your best to put a quality product on the field within budgetary constraints certainly can’t hurt.

One of the first roster management concepts I’ll be dealing with is the Rule 5 draft, which serves as a segway into option years, the arbitration process, and free agency. But to talk about that, we need to briefly discuss the amateur draft as well, which occurs each June. Teams draft close to 1500 players (30 teams, 50 rounds) each year, of which fewer than 5% ever appear in a single MLB game. Each MLB team operates 6-7 minor league teams of increasing difficulty for their draftees to play on, with draftees from previous years, players signed from overseas, and so forth. However, unlike years ago in MLB, teams can’t simply retain the rights to these players forever, effectively hoarding talent and restricting them to minor league salaries in the thousands, not millions. If MLB teams don’t offer their prospects a reasonable path to the majors after a reasonable amount of developmental time, they will lose the rights to those players.

Specifically, minor league players become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. This draft occurs each December, and allows MLB teams to pay $25,000 to draft prospects from the minor league systems of other teams. However, not all players are eligible: only those who have spent four years in the minors (if signed at age 19 or older), or five years in the minors (if signed at age 18 or younger). Teams can still protect prospects they really want to keep if they have exceeded either threshold – however, they must be added to the 40-man roster to do so. Once added to the 40-man roster, those players must be sent through waivers (i.e. all other 29 MLB teams get to be removed from the roster. Therefore, there is considerable risk in making these decisions lightly. Protect too few prospects, and you might lose some talented players. Protect too many, and you may hamstring your flexibility in the short-term at the MLB level, and still be forced to lose some of the players you chose to protect in the long run.

I’ll expand on this in a separate post about the Rule 5 Draft, but as it relates to the 40-man roster, decisions to protect Rule 5 eligible players are challenging for front offices and involve weighing a lot of different factors – the potential short and long-term impacts of prospects being considered, the roster space they need/want to keep vacated for potential trade targets or free agent signings, and the likelihood that teams will not only select a given unprotected player in the Rule 5 Draft, but commit to keeping the player on their MLB roster for a full season. If you’re curious, a rough rule of thumb for use this offseason is that players signed out of high school in 2006 or college in 2007 will become Rule 5 eligible for this December’s draft. Many of the no-name players you will see added to 40-man rosters over the next several weeks will be done so in order to avoid risking the loss of those players to the upcoming draft.

Back to the Grindstone

2010-10-16T12:43:00.000-04:00

For the past several weeks, I’ve toyed with beginning an ongoing series of MLB 40-man roster evaluations, effectively serving as a SWOT analysis (just like with any other business) emphasizing the given team’s payroll, young cost-controlled talent, and specific areas of strength over a one-year (2011) and three-year (2011-2013) window. This, along with numerous ideas with it that I may pursue, would be quite a commitment given the scope of what I’d like to turn a project like that into. But the more important point for now is that after burning a lot of time on message boards recently, I’ve realized I’m interested in writing about the game again and in trying to build on my own knowledge of roster development and analysis in the context of MLB. In the process, I hope to offer thoughts that might be entertaining and/or informative for at least a couple of people out there somewhere. This may turn into a much greater project, or it may not. We’ll see how it goes.

For now, I’m going to begin a series of articles regarding important concepts to digest for tackling roster development and analysis. These topics are both ones that I would like to become better versed in discussing, as well as a number of subjects that will be necessary to preface any kind of team analysis. These concepts include things such as the amateur draft, the 40-man roster, the arbitration and free agency process, the Rule 5 draft, the international talent market, and so forth. They may also branch out to cover personal baseball management philosophies –the risk/reward continuum and why a balanced (diversified) farm system is important, constructing a realistic preseason depth chart (knowing it takes many, many more than 25 players to crawl through a 162-game season), anticipating and avoiding 40-man roster crunches, and so forth.

Finally, I have to imagine I will need and/or want to cover some statistical analysis as well – not necessarily the calculation of or nuts and bolts behind given statistics, but certainly the information needed to interpret them, as well as the limitations and context needed to avoid fooling ourselves into thinking that we can rely on numbers at their face value to “make” the correct decisions for us.

In all of these cases, I anticipate linking to all of these articles from the main page as a reference/resource list for use with whatever direction this site takes. I will also gradually grow a reference list of outside sources and must-reads to supplement (or preface) these discussions.

Simply put, I’m not sure exactly what I’m going to be doing with this, and I’m not claiming to be an all-knowing authority of a sport that many, many people smarter than me have extensively researched and built an impressive library of knowledge about. But I’d like to write several times a week again, and I think I have some things to offer that could help augment the way in which many baseball fans watch and understand the game. Stay tuned, and bookmark me if you’re intrigued!

2009 Minor League Free Agents

2009-08-24T17:50:00.004-04:00

Check out this post by RoyalsRetro at John Sickels' Minor League Ball prospect blog. Minor league free agency is a means of talent acquisition that flies far under the radar, but it can pay significant dividends for teams who take fliers on the right players and who, to an extent, enjoy good luck. Impact talent is virtually off the table here, but for a non-guaranteed roster spot and the league minimum, a number of teams have reaped the benefits of cheap flawed players who are true assets in supporting roles. After all, a roster requires 25 players and several capable reserves, not just stars.

Keeper League Update / Prospect Profiles

2009-08-21T12:19:00.003-04:00

Here is a brief overview of my primary keeper league team's farm system that I wrote last week on our forums. I know this doesn't really count as coverage, but it has some information on a bunch of well-known and lesser known prospects. All numbers are as of about a week and a half ago. Also, for purposes of this article (the league), rookie eligibility is defined as less than 50 IP or 150 AB for a player to be considered as having one year of MLB service. It's a 24-team league, so with graduations this is actually an above-average collection of young core talent. Below is a top 10, a 'just missed' listing, and a list of my current year graduations:

1) 1B Justin Smoak - AAA TEX - Tempted to put Latos ahead, but Smoak has shown power, patience, and plus defense in his first full pro season. Struggled at first in AAA but has been better lately. Looks ready for a job in mid-2010, could survive sooner though.

(2) RHP Mat Latos - MLB SD - Pretty certain to keep his ML status. 21 YO, who despite pitching just 112.1 IP at low A or lower coming into the year, is already enjoying substantial MLB success. He's still a flyball pitcher and not yet quite as good as his ERA indicates, but the BB/K rates are nice and his stuff is simply absurd. Fourth-fastest average fastball among all SP in baseball with a wicked, wicked slider. Looks like the rotation-fronting potential we've heard about is real, hopefully he can lose the 'fragile' tag soon enough.

(3) LHP Martin Perez - AA TEX - Perez got shelled in his AA debut, which is absolutely fine since he's 18 and the youngest player above (IIRC) low-A. Perez features plus heat and a plus curve, but some have even reported his once-middling change as looking like a third plus offering. Sky's the limit. ETA late 2011, conceivably could be ready earlier but probably needs a full year in AA in 2010.

(4) 1B Freddie Freeman - AA ATL - The former youngest player in the CAR league is now struggling a bit in AA, but showing a good approach at the plate. Freeman has legit power which hasn't yet been fully realized at age 19, and though not generally regarded as more than an average defender at 1B, he was recently named the Southern League's best defensive 1B. ETA Sept. 2010 or early 2011.

(5) RHP/SS Casey Kelly - A+ BOS - Ok, Casey, that's not awful for a 19 YO shortstop in Low-A, but you are a pitcher. K rates were just OK, but that's nitpicking when considering Kelly's ARL, upside, and excellent H/BB/HR ratios. ETA 2012.

(6) RHP Jordan Walden - AA LAA - Previous owners of guys like Jeff Mathis know all about the Angels' hitter-friendly parks. Here's a fun case study for you. Walden played a third of last season at high-A last year after 18 stellar low-A starts. ERA and FIP for 2008 (A+)/2009 (AA): 4.04/5.25, 3.81/3.77. Basically, here's what's changed for Walden: his K rate has increased a decent amount, he's walking an additional batter per inning, and his hit rate has increased substantially. He's had a nagging non-shoulder/elbow injury this season, and he has certainly had some struggles. But these items together are absolutely not enough for me to drop Walden out of the 30-60 range as a front-mid starter to virtually off the radar (150+) on a prospect list, when this is all occurring in a hitter's park at 21 years old. I think Walden should be dropped a bit from where he was last year, but that given the almost complete lack of talk on him, that he is approaching the territory of criminally underrated. ETA 2011

(7) OF Angel Morales - A MIN - An unbelievably slow start makes Morales' age-19 full season debut season (.264/.320/.457) all the more impressive, as something has clicked this summer. After a disastrous June, Morales has posted a .916 and 1.194 OPS in back to back months. Morales still has a problematic plate approach, but while walking at a rate of 6% (12% last year), he's cut his K rate from an ugly 39.3% to a much less bad 27.7%. Given his age and league, this isn't yet a major problem and is encouraging growth. I want to see further improvement, but this guy is loaded with tools and could be a pretty good player even with a low walk rate. ETA 2013.

(8) RHP Simon Castro - A SD - Promote me! Castro isn't young or old for low-A at 21, and has been moved slowly, one year per level. His past track record is erratic, but he's gained lots of command/control this year, dropping his BB/9 to 2.42 while bolstering his K/9 from strong to an excellent 10.40. Castro's K rate has actually increased every month, peaking at 13.06 in July. I want to see him against better competition, but the stuff and improvement is there for him to rapidly ascend prospect lists next season. He has to be in San Diego's top 5 right now. ETA mid-2012.

(9) C Angel Salome - AAA MIL - Looks like .400 BABIPs from 5'7" 200 lb. catchers aren't sustainable after all. In all seriousness, Salome's BB/K rates are a little worse, but not significantly, than last year. His ISO is down a fair amount, but he's had many fewer runners attempt to steal on him and increased his poor 25% CS to a fair 31%. Overall, he hasn't helped his stock any and it has to have dipped a little bit. But as a 23 YO C getting his first taste of AAA, I'm not particularly concerned. His skill is somewhere between 2008 and 2009, which would make for a handy starting catcher. ETA mid/late-2010.

(10) RHP Adys Portillo - R SD - I don't really know who goes on the list at this point, so I went with pure upside. Portillo is making his stateside debut as a 17 YO in the AZL. The results aren't earth-shattering, but he was regarded as #2 behind Ynoa last summer in the int'l. class and has heaps of potential. It's going to take a while, but early returns are at least encouraging with a BB/9 under 4 and a K rate approaching 8. No, R-ball stats don't mean much, but it is nice to see a kid his age coming to the US and holding his own from the start. ETA 2014-2015.

Next 5 (in no particular order):
C Luis Exposito (AA - BOS), 2B Scott Sizemore (AAA - DET), RHP Tyler Chatwood (A - LAA), SS Derrick Gibson (A- BOS), RHP Jairo Heredia (A NYY)

Graduations (or likely graduations): LHP Phil Coke, LHP Ross Detwiler, LHP Jose Mijares, RHP Tyler Clippard, RHP Tommy Hanson, RHP Kevin Hart, RHP Kris Medlen, OF Nolan Reimold, OF Seth Smith

System overview:
The system has thinned considerably, partially due to a series of trades that netted Jon Lester, Evan Longoria, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, and some lesser regulars such as Luke Scott. It has also graduated perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball along with what should form most of my bullpen, a couple of starting outfielders, and Kris Medlen, who I believe still has long-term rotation potential (check out his impressive 2nd half numbers, by the way - 11 K/9 in his last ~30 IP).

Overall, I'm happy to have somehow pulled off a firesale/full-scale rebuild that should see only one poor year before a return to contention next year, with impact prospects (though fewer of them) still in the pipeline. The central tenet of our league is cost control, as it's filled with good owners and a salary cap. Having all of the above guys through five years of MLB service cheaply should at least give me the chance to contend for a while, which is all you can really ask for.

Shiny New Toy Syndrome

2009-07-15T21:11:00.003-04:00

Today, I made several posts at John Sickels' Minor League Ball blog on the SBNation network. These were in reference to one thread discussing SD AA RHP Mat Latos' imminent big league promotion as well as subsequently a referendum on his mechanics, as well as a comparison of 2006 high school draftee and BOS AA 1B Lars Anderson against #3 overall pick in the 2009 draft, Seattle prospect and UNC alum OF Dustin Ackley.

The posts were a bit of a stream of consciousness tirade against "shiny new toy syndrome" (SNTS), which states that newer prospects sometimes are underrated and older prospects overrated on the almost sole basis of being new/old, as newer prospects have not yet had any significant flaws exposed against higher competition.

I think this is a topic that deserves some more attention, as IMO there is no perfect way to balance evaluating these two groups of players, but the pendulum has swung way too far in favor of fresh new faces. Here are some excerpts on the topic below:

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Every scouting report said the same thing about Lars, and now that he’s a 21 YO in EL, people go sour b/c its a challenge. I’d lean Ackley here b/c of the defensive spectrum, but I’m sure when he has a rough April-May 2011 we’ll be talking about him vs. the next big bat ’11 draftee.
I don’t disagree and like Ackley better. What I’m saying is really a larger complaint about where prospect evaluation is at right now in that I think independent of which players we’re talking about, X is almost always favored over Y if X is the next big thing and Y has to make adjustments, even if ahead of the age/promotion curve.

I think that’s a very big issue and causes a lot of players to get overlooked since almost every player’s expectations are set entirely too high (i.e. turning ‘upside’ into an almost expected outcome).

For example, now that his defense is considered by many to be above-average by MLB standards, how come Reid Brignac is so far under the radar right now? Probably because his CAL league season bought him some high expectations, and he took time to adjust to the high minors when young for his leagues.

Back to the first paragraph though, or Ackley/Lars specifically, here’s what was said about Lars in BA shortly after the 2006 draft (early preseason 2007):

Strengths: Anderson doesn’t just have tape-measure power, but he generates it with ease. One scout compared him to Carlos Delgado for his ability to flip the barrel at the ball and have it explode off his bat. There’s plenty of room for more strength on his 6-foot-5, 190-pound frame, and for a big power hitter he has a short swing and a very good approach. He sees the ball well and uses the opposite field already. He’s a solid athlete.

Weaknesses: He has to put in some time on his defense, though Anderson has the hands and footwork to become at least an average first baseman. Once he fills out, he’ll be a below-average runner but shouldn’t be a baseclogger.

The Future: Anderson could make his pro debut in low Class A Greenville as a 19-year-old. The Sox can’t wait to see what he does in game action, and he could be hitting in the middle of their order as early as the end of 2009.

Sounds like a can’t-miss guy, right? In retrospect, isn’t this more of a best-case upside scenario that reads like what should be expected of him? He’s only 21, he’s got time to put together a productive MLB career despite a disappointing season, but I guess I have trouble seeing how one guy’s stock can drop SO dramatically in only a little over two years. He, and many others, went from pretty overrated to potentially underrated. In both cases, true value was probably between those two points.

So yes, I’m not trying to take Ackley down a peg at all, because it’s a broader criticism than that, and he’s a good player.

I think it works better for more comparable players than Lars and Ackley, but the general idea that we overreact to hype re: new players and value them over guys who have had the disadvantage of having their flaws exposed against tougher competition. But those same guys were someone’s shiny new toys a couple years prior to that.

I think it works better for more comparable players than Lars and Ackley, but the general idea that we overreact to hype re: new players and value them over guys who have had the disadvantage of having their flaws exposed against tougher competition. But those same guys were someone’s shiny new toys a couple years prior to that.

Homer Bailey might be an oops in progress…all good names though. Danks and Floyd both burned me before I started trying to be less reactive to MiLB numbers and more patient. For a while I kind of just absorbed what people said on new guys and went with it, but there’s so much time for something to go wrong and stock to drop for new guys – you can’t predict the wall they might hit at AA or AAA three years down the line, etc.

There are some very, very good owners in my main keeper league, but I think SNTS is an exploitable weakness. It’s just easy to become frustrated with guys whose names you’ve seen for years and who succeed especially with +ARL early only to hit a wall in the upper minors. The talent’s usually the same or similar as it was straight out of the draft, but different context sometimes alone can drastically change perception. Once a guy struggles even once, his perceived value rarely gets that full value back, either.

For example, using Brignac I think you’d be downright nuts to leave a MLB-ready SS with solid power and defensive skills out of a top 50. But would he make more than 2 out of 10 of a random sample of prospectors? Doubtful – he’s a 23 YO has-been now, and not even BA gave him an honorable mention with their top 25! He’s toast.

Moustakas and Hosmer are great examples. Latos and Drabek were both completely off the radar before this year, and all of a sudden turned into ace-potential guys again? When Casey Kelly has a 5 ERA in his first six weeks of AA next year as a 20 YO, he probably drops out of a top 50, right?

Most importantly, you are looking at three months of minor league statistics. I agree that those numbers are dubious to heavily weigh, and would also note that especially if you’re not going to adjust for context, you can’t learn very much about a prospect based on such a small sample. If the numbers alone are enough to analyze a player, let’s go ahead and anoint all those 24-year-old non-prospects in high-A as the next big thing.

I think you need to reward a player for what he’s doing well and the progress he is making. Keep in mind most 21 YO are either in high-A (if they’re lucky and good), or still in the process of signing their first pro contracts as college draftees. That Lars is holding his own with production that’s neither truly great nor truly bad – simply a bit above-average for his league – is a plus in his favor. Also consider that despite KG’s anti-Lars campaign, we have multiple sources including John noting that there are some serious tools here. He has continued to show some skills to pair with those tools, and has been reasonably productive. Strong plate discipline and some power with below-average defense…he looks like the same guy to me…wait, why is he doomed again?

He’s not without weaknesses and has a lot of work left to do to be an above-average MLB player, but despite numbers that aren’t eye-popping, he is doing alright given context, and to call it a lost season or “just not pretty” is pretty ridiculous IMO.

(on Latos - John Sickels hates his mechanics, Kevin Goldstein likes them) - But my point was that there’s no consensus that they’re problematic. However, because it’s now been said, it’s my opinion that in what tends to be a pretty overreactive community (prospect followers, myself included), sentiments like these begin to just be repeated verbatim until they’re a characteristic of the prospect.

Does that make any sense? I think there are two credible arguments on Latos:

(1) injury history combined with complicated mechanics increase risk of future injuries (arm or elsewhere)
(2) stuff and results speak for themselves, injury risk is overblown b/c he has avoided major arm trouble, different expert says mechanics are clean

I lean more toward the latter but think the former could easily be true. It’s just annoying that that connection has only been made because John stated it yesterday. Still guessing this makes more sense in my head than it does on paper.

I was speaking to the community’s perception, not yours specifically. I think it’s a really legitimate argument against Latos, I just think it will get a disproportionate amount of traction because one of the big three (John, BA, KG) recently commented on it. That’s just what bothers me – that this IMO might quickly turn from a credible perspective with some solid evidence to a foregone conclusion.

Tate and ‘questions’ about the bat are a great example from this year’s draft.

Futures Game Preview

2009-07-11T15:29:00.006-04:00

I'm not sure if this is going to make the main site, so I'll post it here. This is just a brief overview of how the Futures Game rosters are constructed, as well as a few brief bios on players on the U.S. roster. The Futures Game takes place on Sunday at 2pm EST and features an elite collection of minor league talent. I was having major problems with formatting my table; I'll deal with it later...maybe.

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US takes on World in 2009 Futures Game

Sunday’s All-Star Weekend Exhibition features six USAB alumni

This Sunday, the 11^th annual Futures Game will take place at Busch Stadium, home of the St. Louis Cardinals and the host of this season’s MLB All-Star Game festivities. The game pits 50 of the best minor league players against each other; 25 playing for the United States, and 25 representing the rest of the world. It’s both a great opportunity to recognize superb performances over the first half of the minor league season, as well as to identify and get a sneak peak of blossoming talents who will soon begin to appear on major league rosters.

The US roster features six players who once played on a USA Baseball amateur national team in international competition. Five infielders (Pedro Alvarez, Danny Espinosa, Josh Vitters, Brett Wallace, and Jemile Weeks) as well as one pitcher (Jarrod Parker) will make appearances for the US team. A summary of those players’ seasons to date is featured below:

Last First MLB Team Level MiLB Team AVG HR RBI
3B Alvarez* Pedro Pittsburgh AA Altoona, PA .245 17 63
SS Espinosa Danny Washington A+ Potomac, MD .263 9 41
3B Vitters* Josh Chicago (N) A+ Daytona, FL .303 15 49
3B Wallace* Brett St. Louis AAA Memphis, TN .294 11 35
2B Weeks Jemile Oakland A+ Stockton, CA .323 7 24

Last First MLB Team Level MiLB Team ERA W SO
RHP Parker* Jarrod Arizona AA Mobile, AL 2.51 5 82

* Indicates combined statistics for multiple minor league teams

Pedro Alvarez played on the USA Baseball National Collegiate Team for two consecutive summers (2006-2007). As a sophomore, he led Team USA in batting average (.379) and RBI (43) while starting every game and clubbing five home runs during the summer of 2006. As a result of an impressive junior season at Vanderbilt University, Alvarez was named a finalist for the 2007 Golden Spikes Award, given annually by USA Baseball to the best player in college baseball. That summer, after becoming the 2^nd overall selection of the 2007 MLB draft, Alvarez hit .315 with seven round-trippers and a team-leading 30 RBI in a second summer with Team USA.

Danny Espinosa batted .483 while appearing in every game for the 2003 16U National Team, which went 7-1 en route to the gold medal in the World Youth Championships in Taipei, Taiwan. He later became a teammate of Alvarez’s on the 2007 National Collegiate Team, and was drafted by the Washington Nationals in the 3^rd round of the 2008 MLB draft. Additionally, he was ranked among the twenty best prospects in the New York-Penn League following the 2008 season.

Josh Vitters was a member of the 2005 16U National Team, which took home the silver in the World Youth Championships. He was drafted by the Chicago Cubs 3^rd overall in the 2007 MLB Draft, and has since risen to prominence as the consensus top prospect in the organization. He is among the youngest participants in the event at 19 years old, and boasts immense power potential.

Brett Wallace, a 2008 Golden Spikes Award finalist, worked his way into the 2007 National Collegiate Team’s lineup as a sophomore, batting .312 while starting 29 of a possible 37 games. After being selected by the St. Louis Cardinals 13^th overall in the 2008 MLB Draft, he has worked his way all the way up to AAA in just a full calendar year. With former top prospect Colby Rasmus now entrenched as the Cardinals starting center fielder, Wallace is the heir to the unofficial organizational honor. The honor may be short lived, however, as whether the big league club can afford to keep him stashed away in the minor leagues much longer is another story.

Jemile Weeks was the catalyst of the 2006 National Collegiate Team that won the FISU Championships and won 28 of 31 total games throughout the summer. Weeks started all 31 games and responded by batting .348 with 14 steals and 23 walks. He was drafted 12^th overall by the Oakland Athletics in the 2008 MLB Draft and hasn’t stopped hitting. Given Oakland’s recent aggressiveness with promotions, Weeks is already among the most promising in a talented organization and could find himself in the big leagues before long.

Jarrod Parker was a member of the 2006 18U National Team, which won the silver medal in the fall IBAF Junior World Championships. Parker threw 3 2/3 innings in relief in the final, allowing just four Koreans to reach base and giving his team the chance to briefly retake the lead. He surrendered only a single earned run during the tournament, good for a 0.77 ERA; opposing hitters managed just a .154 batting average against him. Drafted 9^th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2007 MLB Draft, Parker is considered the top prospect in Arizona’s farm system.

The Futures Game begins at 2:00 pm (EST) this Sunday, July 12^th. Those interested can watch the live action on ESPN2 or MLB.TV, while XM subscribers can tune in to channel 175 for a radio broadcast of the game.

Rosters for the Futures Game are selected by Baseball America, MLB.com, the MLB Scouting Bureau, and all 30 MLB teams. Two 25-man rosters (US and World) are created, with at least one player from each organization but no more than two. The first Futures Game took place at Fenway Park during the 1999 All-Star Game festivities and has been a fixture of the event ever since.

Sean O'Sullivan's Early Success

2009-07-03T14:41:00.003-04:00

I wrote an article on USAB alum Sean O'Sullivan (16U 2003, 18U 2004) and his MLB debut. Check it out here.

In early June, most 21-year-old baseball players were eagerly awaiting a phone call notifying them of their selection in the MLB amateur draft as draft-eligible rising seniors in college. Sean O'Sullivan received a phone call of his own just a few days later. However, this one notified him not of a team drafting him, but instead of his promotion to the big leagues to make his major league debut in place of injured pitcher Ervin Santana.
O'Sullivan, a right-handed starting pitcher, was drafted by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the third round of the 2005 draft out of Grossmont, a junior college in California. He had long been on the radar of talent evaluators, having been recognized as the top 12-year-old player in the country in Baseball America's "Baseball for the Ages" series in 2000, as well as being named the 2004 high school player of the year. Through his junior season at Valhalla High in San Diego, O'Sullivan had produced monster numbers as both a starting pitcher and an outfielder with a powerful bat. He batted .472 with 22 home runs and 104 runs batted in over three years, in addition to his dominant 25-6 record, 1.87 ERA, and 219 strikeouts.

USAB Alumni Draft Preview

2009-06-10T07:41:00.004-04:00

I recently wrote a brief feature for USA Baseball's website about Mike Minor (ATL, 7th overall), Mike Leake (CIN, 8th overall), and Jeff Malm (a top high school player still on the board going into day two). Check it out here.

Leake was certainly an already interesting pitching prospect with a strong track
record of success entering 2009. However, as spring wore on, he made believers
out of many observers by simply dominating the competition. Picking out
especially impressive performances is difficult because with seven complete
games on the season and a miniscule 1.23 ERA, spinning a gem became nearly
ordinary for Leake. Consider, for example, the February 26th game against
Missouri in which he outdueled another top pitching prospect in Kyle Gibson to
seal a 2-1 victory for the Sun Devils. He took a no-hitter into the eighth
inning and struck out ten while surrendering just one walk and one hit. But that
start was nothing compared to his March 20th outing against Arizona, when Leake
threw a complete game five-hitter and struck out 15. Another complete game
masterpiece came on May 15th, when Arizona State beat the Ducks 9-0 behind
Leake's complete game three-hitter, featuring no walks and 12 punchouts.

Things I'd like to go on record for:

2009-04-14T20:12:00.002-04:00

These are unchanged from thoughts I posted elsewhere a few days before the season began. To change them now after seeing a week of action would be disingenuous.

* AL playoff teams: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Oakland, Boston
* NL playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, Florida
* Florida is for real.
* New York still has a questionable bullpen, an aging lineup, and at least one black hole in CF. In the toughest division in baseball, that's not enough.
* Look for surprise runs from: Arizona, San Francisco, Texas
* Oakland and Los Angeles will face a battle of attrition, with Oakland's superior prospects ultimately triumphing over the flotsam the Angels must turn to with an injured rotation (posted before Nick Adenhart's tragic death). Note also that Oakland quietly had an exceptional defense last year and added serious offense in Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday, and others.
* The AL Central should be one of baseball's most contested divisions, with Chicago, Minnesota, and Cleveland all strong with some fairly serious flaws.
* San Francisco has the pitching to contend and the lineup of a AAAA squad.
* If one of Washington's outfielders could play 2B and its young pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman and Collin Balester were ready, they would be a real force in the NL East.
* Texas probably needs another year to put together a more legitimate pitching staff, but its offense and prospect depth is downright frightening. Good luck Seattle and Los Angeles; the AL West looks like a full-fledged brawl between Oakland and Texas for quite some time.
* Jordan Schafer is real damn good.
* It would be awful defensively, but a Milwaukee team adding Angel Salome and Mat Gamel to its lineup would produce a ton of runs.
* I'm not confident in calling any division a lock, aside from Chicago in the NL Central.

Ibanez for Burrell - an upgrade?

2009-04-08T22:43:00.002-04:00

I put together a quick post for my baseball statistics class on the boneheaded move on behalf of Philadelphia to replace Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez, and along the same lines, what a perfect fit Burrell is for Tampa Bay.

In my eyes, Pat Burrell was one of the most shrewd (and probably under-the-radar) pickups of this offseason among big-ticket free agents.

Burrell, a notoriously poor defensive outfielder, immediately becomes Tampa Bay's everyday designated hitter, which was a major problem for the Rays offense last season. Tampa DHs hit a combined .246/.322/.428 in 2008. This was good for a 94 OPS+ relative to the league's average DH production (100 is league average at each position). Which positions were worse? LF, RF, and that's it. Tampa got poor offensive production from three of the easiest defensive positions on the field - positions which are notoriously deeper in capable hitters than a challenging defensive position, such as shortstop or catcher.

Burrell, who batted .250/.367/.507 for Philadelphia last year in his fifth straight .800+ OPS season (which he's done 8 out of 9 seasons in his career), can immediately bolster that lackluster offensive production all while limiting the exposure of his most glaring weakness, a very poor glove. A 30-homer threat who reaches base at a very strong clip (.367 career OBP), Burrell forms a suddenly dangerous top-of-the-order threat with B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Pena.

What's especially nice about the signing is the relatively short and cheap contract length (2 yrs / $8m per season). In a different baseball economy, Burrell likely would have commanded four to five years with $10m+ per season in salary. Even this season, comparable players such as Adam Dunn required greater commitments.

But what looks foolish is the Phillies decision to move on from the Burrell era, only to sign Raul Ibanez. Ibanez is also a poor defender who strikes out frequently, only older, more expensive, and less productive than Burrell.

Pat Burrell and Raul Ibanez: offensive performance over past three seasons
Player	Age	OBP	SLG	Player	Age	OBP	SLG
Burrell	29	.388	.502	Ibanez	34	.353	.516
Burrell	30	.400	.502	Ibanez	35	.351	.480
Burrell	31	.367	.507	Ibanez	36	.358	.479

Ibanez signed a 3 year, $31.5m contract with a $2m signing bonus (total value $33.5m, or $11.16m per season). Burrell signed a 2 year, $16m contract (total value $16m, or $8m per season). Philadelphia also had to surrender its first round draft pick as compensation for signing a type A free agent in Ibanez, whereas Tampa Bay did not, because Philadelphia had not offered Burrell arbitration.

I don't think there's much of an argument against this being pretty incompetent management on the part of the Philadelphia front office.

That's a Baseball Score?

2009-04-03T11:32:00.002-04:00

An NCAA Division II game ended after five innings Wednesday. The score? 49-1.

A Service Time Database

2009-03-31T17:28:00.003-04:00

With the bulk of my research project work done (hopefully - I've been surprised before), I think I'm about ready to embark on a new project I've been thinking about for quite a while, that was actually brought on by beginning the research project. I'll have (again, hopefully) a little bit of a lull before USA Baseball work picks up, and I plan to fill the void by beginning work on a searchable MLB service time database.

To quickly summarize what this means, I'll note that MLB players earn service time for each day they spend on the active roster, 15-day, or 60-day DL. They also earn service time for some less common occurrences such as being placed on the bereavement list. This data is not publicly available, as it is sensitive to Major League salaries, arbitration hearings, and so on. Cot's Baseball Contracts is a fantastic resource for this salary and service time information, simply compiled from the Associated Press and other media agencies.

The problem I ran into with Cot's while beginning my research project was that the service time data, which is listed for all active players, is not broken down by year. In other words, a player who has played three full years in MLB is listed as having 3.00 years of service time, but not listed as having earned 1.00 years of service time in 2006, 1.00 years of service time in 2007, and 1.00 years of service time in 2008. Additionally, players who have retired or who stopped playing several years ago are no longer listed. Finally, the salary and service time data only goes back a few years, since the creation of the website. All of these factors posed very serious problems and data gaps when I began to attempt a return on investment project that depended on salary just as heavily as it did on player production.

I plan to create a database that itemizes the service time every MLB player accrues in any given season. For the past several years, this will simply mean parsing through fantasy baseball/transactional sites such as Rotoworld or Rotowire and manually calculating accrued service time based on the guidelines outlined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Beyond the first several years, complete transactional data might be harder to obtain, but I am confident I can build an accurate record for at least several of the most recent years. Obviously this project will be very time intensive, but the work itself does not appear to be very difficult. More importantly, I think I can put together an accurate record that will be a major asset for future research in similar areas. I can also either host the database on my own, or more likely attempt to sell the compiled data to an already prolific resource, such as Sean Forman's Baseball Reference.

Anyway, like usual I always have to stay busy doing something, and this project will ensure that I won't have any truly free time for quite a while. Not that I would have had any without it.

Around the Horn with Terry Ryan

2009-03-31T17:17:00.003-04:00

Late last June, I had the opportunity to chat with former Minnesota Twins General Manager Terry Ryan about working in baseball operations and player development, and advice for what one could do to improve his or her chances of getting an interview with a Major League team. Under Ryan, the Twins won four division titles despite a considerably low budget as a small-market team. He may be best known for trading catcher A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants following the 2003 season for pitchers Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser, considered by many to be one of the most lopsided deals of recent years. Now the Senior Advisor to General Manager Bill Smith, Mr. Ryan had a lot of useful tips for college students and recent graduates alike. The following is paraphrased.

(1) Actively seek as much baseball-related experience as possible.
While this may sound obvious, obtaining sport and specifically baseball experience is essential to trying to one day land with a Major League team. Whether working up the ranks of independent or affiliated ball to gradually more demanding internships and positions or otherwise, having a background in baseball is essential. It’s easy to overlook opportunities to stay around the game in college as well, including umpiring for local high school and little leagues, becoming involved with the student newspaper or radio coverage of varsity baseball, working in operations and production of varsity games, and so forth.

(2) Add a second language
Teams are always looking for people who can interact with all, and not just some, of their players and staff. A grasp on the Spanish language is invaluable given the large number of professional players, but imagine how few prospective baseball employees have a mastery of languages that are becoming increasingly more important in today’s game, such as Japanese or Korean. This is one way to truly differentiate yourself from the flood of people who are also trying to work in baseball.

(3) Develop your passion for and knowledge of baseball
Perhaps most important is to fuel your love of the game by reading and learning as much as possible, whether about history, current research, or baseball economics. Mr. Ryan specifically suggested trying to read 3-4 hours of material daily, and recommended two excellent web sites in Baseball America and The Hardball Times. He also commented on sabermetrics, noting that while not all of the numbers are widely accepted or applicable, that there is some very interesting work being done that can augment our knowledge of the game, and it is important to be aware of that work. This comment specifically encouraged me to take reading and writing about the game more seriously; while still a hobby, a broad background and knowledge base can be invaluable to prospective employees, and I can confidently say that I found such a knowledge base to be an asset in securing an internship with USA Baseball.

(4) Be prepared to put your best into long hours and thankless jobs
Breaking into baseball is tough, with so many people vying for such a comparatively small number of opportunities. The hours are long and the pay is meager, especially for those just trying to get their foot in the door. However, those who pour their heart and soul into their dreams do get noticed. Mr. Ryan commented to me that the first time he saw current Twins General Manager Bill Smith, Smith was pulling the tarp across the infield during an A-ball game’s rain delay. Smith worked his way up the baseball totem pole for the next handful of years before eventually finding himself in the front office. These kinds of stories are littered throughout Major League Baseball. It takes hard work, dedication, passion, and a little bit of luck to achieve similar goals.

Minor League Road Trip: Albuquerque Isotopes

2009-03-30T02:52:00.002-04:00

I posted my first Minor League Road Trip future tonight at BaseballPosts.com, an entry on the AAA Albuquerque Isotopes of the Pacific Coast League (PCL). The team is the AAA affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Below is a small excerpt; you can read the article in full here.

Albuquerque ranks as the 34th-largest city in the United States and the 59th largest metropolitan area, as well as the largest in New Mexico. Isotopes Park is located in the southeastern region of Albuquerque, which is also home to a small Air Force base and Sandia National Laboratories, a major research and development site for the production and testing of the non-nuclear components of nuclear weapons. Visitors to the city might enjoy exploring the historic Old Town, or the Albuquerque BioPark and Aquarium.

---

Lefty Eric Stults and righty James McDonald are two of the last men standing in the competition for the Dodgers’ 5th starter role, though both will likely be needed in Los Angeles throughout the season. McDonald, 24, ranks as the Dodgers’ #2 prospect after an impressive season that began with strikeout after strikeout for AA Jacksonville and ended with him thrust into a vital relief role in the National League Championship Series. Though he has the chance to be a dependable mid-rotation starter, he would do just as well in a late-inning relief role, using strong offspeed pitches and command to compensate for a fastball that lacks elite velocity.

BaseballPosts.com

2009-03-27T04:16:00.002-04:00

I just added my first content to BaseballPosts.com, a website started by a friend I met through working with the Burlington Royals the past two summers. The website is essentially a blog compilation of content generated by as many minor league and independent teams that choose to participate, as well as other baseball-related content. The main focus is on the business and sponsorship end of Minor League Baseball, and how it relates to the fan experience. The hope is to grow the site into not just a premium resource for baseball business information (already scattered around the web), but to develop into a two-way communication tool between teams and their fans.

The features I've decided to write for the site are Minor League Road Trip and Morning Recap. Both series will focus on player analysis (my interest and strength), but will be angled towards these aforementioned goals. For example, Minor League Road Trip, which briefly profiles a given minor league team, will not just overview prospects, but will detail team and stadium history, notable promotions, and city background as well. Additionally, instead of focusing on prospects from a Major League team's perspective (e.g. best prospect at AA, second-best at AAA, third-best in Rookie ball, etc.), players will be analyzed on a team-by-team basis. When you read about the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, you'll read about the team and city as well as the Pawtucket players with futures in MLB, whether they're can't-miss or barely noticed minor leaguers.

In essence, Minor League Road Trip should act as a supplement for anyone attending a minor league baseball game, from a prospector who wants to identify top prospects to watch, to a casual fan who is completely unfamiliar with either team, to a student of the game who simply wants to learn a little more about the history behind each affiliated minor league team.

Morning Recap will be a daily recap (posted late night, in all likelihood) of notable minor league performances (good and bad), as well as occasional recaps of especially exciting games or promotional nights.

I will also post additional content from time to time. Some of my BaseballPosts.com content will also still be featured here; other content will be exclusive to my personal blog (what you're reading now). The point is I will be more actively blogging this season for as long as time permits. I have no idea if the new website will grow and develop into a noteworthy website or a revenue source, but it has already been featured by MiLB.com's Benjamin Hill and is gradually growing in popularity. We'll see where it goes, because it certainly doesn't make sense to shut a door before finding out.

You can read my first post here, which is an introduction that repeats much of this information. Regular posting will begin tomorrow night.

Baseball Reference Renovated

2009-03-24T02:48:00.002-04:00

Wow. Baseball Reference's new website has just been launched in Beta.

See Manny Ramirez on the old site and on the new site. Notice anything different?

Baseball Reference was already a gold mine for researchers and fans alike; with the addition of invaluable data such as baserunning and pitch type statistics, it immediately becomes the unquestionably dominant baseball research tool, in my honest opinion. Two emphatic thumbs up from this observer and frequent user.

WARP as a Team Metric

2009-03-22T01:50:00.004-04:00

For part of my ongoing research project, I have had to deal quite a bit with WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player), the Baseball Prospectus metric that accumulates a player's total offensive and defensive contributions to estimate the number of wins he added to his team's seasonal total, as compared to a replacement level (e.g. random AAA player or barely-suitable 25th man on a roster) player.

WARP3 is a metric used for the valuation and comparison of individual players; WARP3 in particular adjusts for season length, era, position, park, and league, essentially neutralizing all variables in comparing any two players over the course of baseball history. The metric is not without its flaws, but serves its purpose well.

However, my project looks at WARP3 in a group context; for example, how many wins above replacement level did the 1996 draft class provide its various teams during their cost-controlled years? One of the issues with my project is justifying the use of (and trust in) WARP3 as a valid production metric to academics who in almost all cases will not be familiar with current baseball research. For this reason, I decided to investigate correlations involving WARP3 that would be easily understandable to novices.

I justify WARP3 as an all-encompassing production metric that describes how many wins a player added to his team. If this metric is to be trusted, then, shouldn't a given team's players together produce the same WARP3 number (IE wins) as the actual number of games the team won? In other words, shouldn't WARP3 predict a team's total wins?

The answer is not exactly. This is not what WARP3 is designed for, and the easiest problem to identify with this analysis is that WARP3 uses a baseline of replacement level, whereas team wins use a baseline of zero. Let me rephrase this; a team can either win a game, or it can't. Therefore, the worst it can possibly do is win zero games.

However, a team can do worse using WARP3 as a metric (theoretically; in practice, this is virtually impossible for a Major League team). Because the baseline - the "zero" - is designated as replacement level, there are always ways by which a team can play worse than replacement level.

For example, let's say that a replacement level team filled with veteran minor leaguers is expected to surrender six earned runs per game. Over the course of a small sample size, such as a three-game series, an MLB team might post an ERA of 8.00. In a small sample size, this happens to virtually all teams at one point or another during a given season. In this case, the team has performed worse than the expected replacement level at a rate of two runs per game. Therefore, the team during this period would have performed at a subzero replacement level, resulting in a negative number of runs/wins added!

Comparing wins and wins above replacement level is very similar, but it is not the same at all. That said, we should expect to see a strong correlation between the team totals of each should the metric be a valid one in assessing net player performance.

The results? In 2008, the 30 MLB teams net WARP3 and total wins showed a very strong correlation of .854. Outliers were magnified due to the relatively small sample size of n=30; looking at 20 years of data instead of 1 would weaken their pull.

How did the 2008 MLB playoff teams do? Let's look; the teams' first value is their win total (rank out of 30 in parentheses), and their second value is their WARP3 total (rank out of 30 in parentheses).

TB - 97 wins (T-2nd), 116.2 WARP3 (2nd)
BOS - 95 wins (4th), 122.3 WARP3 (1st)
CHW - 89 wins (T-7th), 108 WARP3 (6th)
LAA - 100 wins (1st), 107.3 WARP3 (7th)
PHI - 92 wins (5th), 102.7 WARP3 (9th)
CHC - 97 wins (T-2nd), 111.8 WARP3 (3rd)
MIL - 90 wins (6th), 99.5 WARP3 (13th)
LAD - 84 wins (T-14th), 98.9 WARP3 (14th)

7 of the top 8 teams in WARP3 were all in the American League, the Cubs being the exception. Those who missed make plenty of sense, as New York (89 wins, 4th with 111.3 WARP3) and Toronto (86 wins, 5th with 102.7 WARP3) both played in the AL East, the toughest division in baseball (4 of the top 5 teams in net WARP3). With an unbalanced schedule forcing each team within a division to play one another nearly 20 times, the lack of equality in schedule difficulty impacts win totals (and playoff chances). In any other division in baseball - most notably the very weak NL West - both New York and Toronto are likely each well over 90 wins and playoff bound. The strength of division argument is supported by analyzing the net WARP3 performances of both Tampa Bay and Boston and noting just how far each breaks from the pack.

Minnesota, the other AL team in the top 8, lost a one-game playoff to Chicago with the AL Central crown on the line. While it wasn't an AL East, the division was still less of a free ride than either West Coast group, and still meant facing the AL East powerhouse in a limited capacity throughout the season.

The bottom five teams also showed a strong correlation between win total and WARP3 score:

(26) Baltimore - 68 wins, 90.5 WARP3 (22nd)
(27) Pittsburgh - 67 wins, 71.9 WARP3 (30th)
(28) San Diego - 63 wins, 82.1 WARP3 (26th)
(29) Seattle - 61 wins, 84.5 WARP3 (25th)
(30) Washington - 59 wins, 74.7 WARP3 (29th)

The goal of sabermetrics is not to obfuscate the game; it is to augment our understanding of it, not replace it. When we use a metric that seeks to identify the best hitters, we want to see which hitters produce the most runs offensively. When one well-versed in sabermetrics would argue that on-base percentage is more valid than batting average as a tool for identifying good hitters, he does so not to slight a more traditional statistic, but because OBP (the metric) correlates with run scoring (the question) much more strongly than does AVG. He would also argue that better yet, one should use a metric that exhibits an even more resolute correlation with run scoring than OBP, such as runs created.

The idea is to find the best way to objectively answer the question. When we see a metric that correlates very strongly with team winning, we can conclude that the metric is a strong one in answering questions of how players contribute to team winning via both run production and run prevention.

Nauseating

2009-03-16T11:19:00.000-04:00

A top-heavy roster with not enough top. This is one ugly 40-man.

Big News

2009-03-03T10:47:00.002-05:00

Once again, five weeks have flown by and all of a sudden my blog looks completely neglected. I am planning to get back on a semi-regular posting schedule and should have some new content in the near future.

For now, I just have a brief announcement that I landed an internship with USA Baseball in Durham, NC. In addition to doing essentially whatever else they might need or ask me to do, it looks like I will primarily be focusing on player analysis as well as the compilation of past data. I will be working a bit in the spring, full-time in the summer, and possibly beyond as well. I've got to say I couldn't be more excited; I certainly didn't expect to be able to get this kind of hands-on experience until after graduation, and expected to have to continue working on the business/operations side of the game hoping for a future opportunity to get my feet wet in the part of the field I'm most passionate about.

Not to mention USA Baseball is an excellent organization that, among many other programs, organizes the USA World Baseball Classic team, the collegiate and amateur national teams, and a series of talent showcases and clinics throughout the year.

Most, if not all of what I'll be doing is going to be confidential; if it's questionable, I am obviously going to err on the side of caution. However, I'm sure I'll have the opportunity to attend a number of games this summer, and I wouldn't rule out perhaps being able to find an interview here and there. But for the most part, I wanted to post a reassurance that I haven't bailed on this blog and will have new content available soon.

Why Bert Belongs

2009-01-18T17:20:00.003-05:00

I can explain in just a few paragraphs why Bert Blyleven belongs in the Hall of Fame in a way that people less familiar with sabermetrics and more comfortable with traditional metrics can appreciate. Well, actually I can't, but let's give Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts a shot.

*** Since 1900, Bert Blyleven ranks 5th in career strikeouts, 8th in shutouts, and 19th in wins. ***

That should do it, don't ya think?

Blyleven is 5th in career strikeouts. Every pitcher in the top 17 who is eligible for the Hall of Fame has already been enshrined in Cooperstown except Blyleven. The only four pitchers who have struck out more batters than Bert are Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Steve Carlton. The nine pitchers immediately behind Blyleven are Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Walter Johnson, Greg Maddux, Phil Niekro, Fergie Jenkins, Bob Gibson, and Pedro Martinez. That's keeping pretty good company, no?

Blyleven is 9th in career shutouts overall and 8th since 1900. The only pitchers with more white washes are Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson, Cy Young, Eddie Plank, Warren Spahn, Nolan Ryan, and Tom Seaver. Hall of Famers all. In fact, one could make the case that these eight pitchers are inner circle Hall of Famers. The 13 pitchers immediately behind Blyleven are Don Sutton, Pud Galvin, Ed Walsh, Bob Gibson, Mordecai Brown, Steve Carlton, Jim Palmer, Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal, Rube Waddell, Vic Willis, Don Drysdale, and Fergie Jenkins. Once again, each and every one of these pitchers is a member of the Hall of Fame. In fact, every pitcher who has 50 or more shutouts is in the HOF except Blyleven. And he has SIXTY!

Blyleven is 27th in career wins and 19th since 1900. Every pitcher above Blyleven who is eligible for the Hall of Fame has been inducted into Cooperstown except Bobby Mathews, a 19th-century hurler with 297 wins, and Tommy John, who accumulated one more victory than Bert. Immediately behind Blyleven are Hall of Famers such as Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins, Red Ruffing, Burleigh Grimes, Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, and Eppa Rixey. There are dozens of others behind this group who are also in the HOF, including such notables as Carl Hubbell, Bob Gibson, and Sandy Koufax, as well as Catfish Hunter, a Blyleven contemporary who won 63 fewer games and trailed in shutouts by 18 and strikeouts by 1,689. Blyleven didn't just trounce Hunter in counting stats but he also trumped him in arguably the most important rate stat for pitchers. Hunter's adjusted ERA (ERA+) was 104 (or 4% better than the league average). By comparison, Blyleven's ERA+ was 118 (or 18% better than the league average).

User Doug B. comments in the same thread:

How about this pitcher:

Won 20 twice, (blyleven once)

Won 17 or more 5 times, (blyleven 7 times)

5 times was he 5 games or more over .500 (never more than 6), Blyleven (4 times) (but had seasons of 7, 8 and 12 games better than .500)

O cy youngs (blyleven 0)

Average 12.3 wins over three years (age 31-33 season) when his teams average just under 90 wins.

Career ERA plus of 111 in 5386 innings, (Blyleven was 118 in 4970 innings).

Somehow, I don't think you question Nolan Ryan's hall worthiness. It is not particularly close. The same should be the case for Ryan.

Bill Gros adds this amazing data on Blyleven being short-changed by playing for usually poor teams:

An amazing Bert Blyleven statistic that I wouldn’t wish upon any major league pitcher:
From his 1970 rookie season through 1977 I’ve accumulated his quality starts that I’ve defined as: 6innings, 2earned runs or less; 7,8,9innings, 3earned runs or less; and 9innings+ 4 earned runs or less in which he garnered a no decision or a loss only……

The totals are:
82 games
658 innings
583 hits
185 runs
160 earned runs
184 base on balls
540 strikeouts
2.19 ERA
His record: 0 wins and 53 LOSSES. I repeat 0 wins and 53 losses with a 2.19 ERA

1970 0-3 2.09 9 games
1971 0-6 1.90 9 games
1972 0-9 2.35 13 games
1973 0-8 2.55 9 games
1974 0-8 1.80 10 games
1975 0-6 2.00 10 games
1976 0-8 2.29 15 games
1977 0-5 2.45 7 games

I understand that pitchers put up great games and get snakebit on occasion, but this accounted for almost 1 of every 3 starts, 82 of 279 to be exact or 29%. Show me a Hall of Famer that had to go through this year by year. Fortunately once Blyleven ended up in Pittsburgh and later some good Minnesota teams, this trend eased to what I would consider normal levels (I had researched this in the past but don’t have the numbers on hand)

Imagine 1974, your 17-9 in 27 games, and in the other 10, all of which are essentially quality starts, you post a 1.80ERA and go 0-8. You end up 17-17. If you don’t know the facts, and your voting for the Cy Young award, and you see 17-17. Do you cast a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place vote? Probably not. This is what Blyleven faced in yesteryear, and the same writers, who I contend do not know the facts, are what Blyleven faces every year in the HOF vote.

Using more advanced metrics only strengthens Bert's case. It is simply absurd that nearly 40% of the BBWAA still believe this pitcher is not among the all-time greats. Or, at least, the all-time very goods.

My 2009 Hall of Fame Ballot

2009-01-12T03:20:00.003-05:00

The 2009 Hall of Fame inductees will be announced this afternoon at 2pm EST. Who's on my ballot?

Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines
Bert Blyleven
Jim Rice (due almost entirely to being a biased Red Sox fan)
Mark McGwire

The last name on this list stokes quite a bit of controversy in discussing Hall of Fame credentials, and also establishes an interesting precedent for when elite players accused of steroid use become eligible for election (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa).

Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus annually reviews Hall of Fame candidates using a statistical system he developed called JAWS, which seeks to identify players who were as good as or better than the average enshrined player at their respective positions, adjusting for era, league, park, and so forth. A more detailed description of JAWS by Jaffe can be found here, but the reason I bring up Jaffe and JAWS is that in one of his articles evaluating this year's class, he made one of the better points I've read regarding the steroid era and how we can begin to objectively evaluate the performance of those who have essentially been found guilty in the eyes of the public.

The full text is available here (paid content), but this passage in particular crystallized my view on the matter.

It remains unclear whether the electorate intends to permanently withhold election for every suspected but otherwise qualified player to hit the ballot, and if so, what the standards of proof are; certainly, they're lower than the existence of a positive test. If McGwire is being made into an example, will successors like Bonds, Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Roger Clemens—each with vastly different cases—receive similar treatment? Does it matter that the Hall itself is filled with spitballers, sign-stealers, racists, alcoholics, drug addicts, cheaters, wife-beaters, booger-eating spazzes, and other "role models" whose place in baseball history is nonetheless secured for eternity? Does it matter that the electorate itself is complicit in the entire steroid narrative, abdicating journalistic responsibility in favor of preserving access to the press box and the locker room? Or that we as fans played right along, flocking to the ballparks in ever-increasing numbers to celebrate record-breaking home-run totals—and that we still haven't left despite BALCO, the Congressional debacle, and the Mitchell Report (of which McGwire was not a part)?

Emphasis mine. The elevation of steroids into a moral issue bothers me, as the public is essentially left to conduct its own set of modern Salem witch trials; in reality, we will never know everyone who used or did not use steroids during the 1990s in MLB. But one thing we do know is that baseball players as a whole have long cheated and abused substances in numerous ways; many of these players are the timeless superstars who have plaques hanging in the Hall of Fame in the first place. Another thing we do know is that more than four players juiced. You can even tell me that all four of the players I've mentioned - Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds - are guilty as accused. That's fine. The fact that more players juiced, and we will never conclusively know which did and which did not, tells me that we cannot subjectively penalize suspected players when those who are not suspected do not receive the same penalty.

Those four players are statistically elite players over the entire history of professional baseball. They dominated the competition at a level that few ever have. Assume they cheated, but they still had to face plenty of less notable pitchers and hitters who were doing the same. My argument is that the steroid era should be treated as literally any other era in baseball history; evaluate players in the context of what the average player was doing. Some periods in baseball history have been characterized by low run-scoring environments, an example being the late 1960s. Other periods, such as the late 1990s have been characterized by high run-scoring environments. Context is important; because these players were so much better than their peers, you can't tell me with a straight face that all of their production and talent was due to possible steroid abuse when they faced competition that largely did the same.

This is, in my opinion, the pragmatic solution to evaluating the late 1990s. Because we are certainly not supposed to be a society that believes in being guilty until proven innocent, and yet that is exactly what we in the baseball community have done with little more than conjecture to support our assertions.

Nonetheless, McGwire has garnered less than 25% of the vote (75% necessary for induction) in his first two years on the ballot, and I would be shocked to see considerable improvement for him this year. I am also stunned at the continued ineptitude of writers to see Blyleven as the very good starting pitcher he was for over 20 years (quick quiz: who's 5th on the career strikeouts leaderboard?). Henderson is a mortal lock, Raines has a very good chance, and this is probably Rice's year to get in as well after years of steadily improving his vote totals. The exclusion of McGwire will be disappointing and continued evidence of an emotional vote rather than a pragmatic one.

Prospect Profile: Tim Beckham

2008-12-22T11:06:00.007-05:00

This is the first post of a series with which I will periodically dedicate a few paragraphs to a minor league player - track record, strengths, weaknesses, upside, etc. However, I should note that in the interest of fairness if my only sources for the information are subscription material, such as that provided by Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, I will be very brief in my comments. Free material and other primary/secondary sources are fair game. If applicable (IE if I saw the player in person one or more times), I'll provide my own amateur anecdotal observations and some visuals as well.

Ultimately, the purpose is mostly for fun and to take a look at perhaps less heralded prospects on their ascent to MLB, in addition to getting a look at the player's swing or delivery, which isn't always easy with very limited television coverage of minor league games. All footage I currently have was taken with a low-end digital camera without a tripod, so my apologies regarding the mediocre zoom and the shaking. A decent video camera is on the list for next baseball season.

BACKGROUND

Contrary to the introduction, the first prospect profile is far from a low-profile player. Tim Beckham was the first overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft after a prolific career at Griffin High School in Georgia. A rough introduction to professional baseball as an 18-year-old has already led some to question the selection of the shortstop over #2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez of Pittsburgh, but long is the list of teenagers who have struggled against older competition on their rise to stardom.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Simply put, Beckham is a high school talent absolutely loaded with tools. His upside is a star-level player playing a middle-diamond position (whether SS or CF), the hardest kind to come by. Perhaps most encouraging is that unlike many who are drafted as shortstops before moving leftward on the defensive spectrum, Beckham is very good defensively and is unlikely to move off the position unless Tampa Bay's roster composition dictates it when he is ready for MLB. His arm and athleticism would handle a transition to CF and probably thrive there as well. Tim gets high marks for his character and attitude, which while unquantifiable are encouraging traits for a high school pick with work to do to achieve his upside.

Scouts project Beckham to add power as he develops (currently 6'2", 191 lbs.), but he will likely never anchor a lineup. It is easier to foresee Beckham as a leadoff hitter with modest power or a very good #2 hitter. However, despite his obvious potential and bat speed, he'll have adjustments to make to reach that level. The good news is that should his bat never fully come around, quality defense at shortstop means generally much lower expectations with the bat; he can miss on his offensive upside and still be a high quality regular.

PERFORMANCE

Beckham batted an unimpressive .243/.297/.345 in 197 plate appearances in the Appalachian League, and went 2 for 6 with a pair of walks in a brief stint in the New York-Penn League. His strikeout total (43) was troubling, which would project out to 131 strikeouts over a full 600 PA season. That said, if Appy League statistics meant much at all, there would be a whole slew of 23-year-old first basemen with bright MLB futures based on their performance against younger competition in the league, and it is certainly understandable for a player like Beckham to perhaps press in light of the immense expectations placed on him as a first overall pick. Beckham will spend 2009 in low-A as a 19-year-old, again one of the youngest players in his league.

FOOTAGE

This footage was taken in August 2008 at Burlington Athletic Stadium in Burlington, NC, at a Princeton Rays - Burlington Royals Appalachian League game. Since I was working, I was unable to record all of his at-bats. He struck out swinging in his first AB, and reached on an infield error in his second (contact shown in footage). Footage of Beckham on the bases is also shown; he didn't run, but you can get a feel for his secondary leads as well as his first step quickness.

Anecdotally, Beckham looked frustrated and I would have to imagine was pressing a bit. Not shown are a couple reactions to strike calls. Below is the second clip (first swing) from this footage replayed at 1/4 speed.

SWING

A Must Read

2008-12-20T05:57:00.003-05:00

A friend forwarded this to me yesterday, and I highly recommend taking five minutes to read it. An excerpt:

"It is custom that our players perform ceremonial washing of one another as part of team bonding expression."

As soon as the words were typed, laughter erupted from the pack of jackals hovering over the computer. The targets eyes looked over at us. Everyone's heads went separate ways as if all were engaged by a different distraction simultaneously. All except the writer who simply said, "You gotta see this video when you get off the phone, man." The Target gave an angry expression and motioned for silence.

"Shut the hell up you guys!" came a stern whisper from the author. Nudges and smacks were passed out by the pack of Orcs as they clamored back into place.

"Uh . . . God this is so awkward telling you to type this," said the target. "Don't write that. Write, 'What parts am I expected to wash?'" We watched him say the words like he just took bad cough medicine. They appeared on our screen and we replied in turn.

"All parts."

A Rhetorical Question

2008-11-18T18:42:00.002-05:00

How in the hell do you justify a 5th place vote for Jason Bartlett in the AL MVP voting this year?

Brief Project Update

2008-11-18T01:03:00.006-05:00

More to come when this starts writing itself, but I am completely done with my data input for the 1996 MLB Draft/Free Agency Return on Investment study.

Due in part to a lack of availability of sensitive data (specific service time in one centralized location, salary information for midseason call-ups, etc.), the salary versus production relationship is represented not through total salary over total production (quantified by WARP3), but by salary over replacement level. That is, because a roster full of players is a requirement for any MLB team, we should not accept that the league minimum salary is a non-essential cost. In other words, the salary beyond the league minimum is the cost of talent acquisition, whereas the minimum salary would be paid regardless of the talent level of the player occupying the given roster spot. This also helps overcome the hurdle posed by incomplete salary data for partial year and career AAAA players. Thus, I defined the variable SARP (salary above replacement player) to recognize the salary paid for talent acquisition beyond the mandatory cost of a league minimum salary.

The study looks at WARP3 (metric accounting for all offensive, defensive, and pitching contributions made above that of freely available (replacement level) talent, adjusted for context) as it relates to total monetary investment above replacement level, or rather net SARP/net WARP3 during the team's potential control of a player. I note 'potential', because the purpose of the paper is not to analyze roster management (IE the merit/value of releasing or trading a player), which would introduce a whole array of problems and subjectivity. It seeks to analyze the total value added to a roster by investing in talent through either free agency or the draft. Were this point not made, it would be necessary to somehow evaluate the value given and received via trade, which is simply impractical for a multitude of reasons.

That's enough jargon. Here are some primary results:

1996 MLB Draft Investments
NET WARP3: 1250.7,
NET SARP:$426,579,233
$ SARP PER WARP3: $341,072.39

1996 Free Agency Investments
NET WARP3: 681.6
NET SARP: $540,980,712
$ SARP PER WARP3: $793,692.36

What the hell is this telling us? I'll get into many posts regarding this study over the coming months, but this at face value tells us that when we exclude implicit costs that come with operating a franchise no matter which player is drafted or signed (e.g. minor league salary, facility costs, equipment costs, MLB league minimum salary, benefits, etc.), MLB teams paid over twice as much per win (unit WARP3) in 1996 via free agency as opposed to the draft.

Bold Predictions Revisited, Part II

2008-10-27T01:13:00.005-04:00

Back on March 29th, I made a number of fairly random predictions that came to mind as I realized I had embarked upon divisional previews that were much too in-depth for me to get to every team. This is a recap of the second half of those positions; you can read part I here.

Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta starts strong, wins more playing time in his job share with incumbent Yorvit Torrealba, and is picked as a reserve to the All-Star game behind elected starter Russ Martin.

What really happened: Iannetta did start 96 games in stealing time away from Torrealba, though wrestling a spot on the NL All-Star roster from Geovany Soto, Russ Martin, or Brian McCann with no name recognition was too difficult. Still, Iannetta finished the year with a very good .264/.390/.505 (126 OPS+) batting line and a firm hold on Colorado’s catching situation for a very long time as a 26-year-old.

Tampa Bay wins 84 games in 2008.

What really happened: I felt a little better about them than this and held back, but never saw a 97-win season coming, especially with half a year of Evan Longoria and very little David Price. This was more optimistic than virtually anyone besides Nate Silver’s PECOTA projection system, though both our predictions weren’t close. More on Tampa Bay later if I get to it, I like this franchise too much to limit it to a paragraph.

Edinson Volquez has a surprisingly successful season as the Reds’ 4th starter, building on his encouraging command improvements from the second half of 2007.

What really happened: Talk about overshooting expectations. During his age-24 season, Volquez emerged as the Reds ace, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, and striking out 206 batters in 196 innings in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Forget 4th starter; Volquez, along with Soto, are the leading NL Rookie of the Year candidates.

Worst team in the AL: Baltimore

What really happened: Aubrey Huff (.304/.360/.552) and Melvin Mora (.285/.342/.483) both came to life, suddenly beginning to hit again in their respective age-31 and age-36 seasons. Had these two instead continued to trend downward in line with their recent production, the Orioles likely would have lost the additional seven games necessary to tie Seattle for worst in the AL.

All pitchers not named Jeremy Guthrie were simply atrocious; even the few relievers with decent ERAs had poor peripherals to back them up. They walked the most batters in the league, surrendered the most home runs, struck out the fewest batters, and as a staff combined for the second-highest ERA behind Texas. Fortunately for Orioles fans, there are plenty of young and promising arms on the way to join Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and an aging offense.

Worst team in the NL: San Francisco

What really happened: If you told me in March that San Francisco would win as many games as Atlanta in 2008, I would have laughed at you. But with 72 wins, the Giants did just that, tying for 12th-best in the league. The team overshot its Pythagorean record by 4 games and rode the talented young arms of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to fourth-place in the NL West, ahead of the lowly Padres.

The problem with the Giants is that despite a very talented farm system, the current lineup features one potential regular in Pablo Sandoval, and one who is probably better suited for fourth outfielder duty in Fred Lewis. Other than that, the roster is an odd assortment of aging former regulars, assorted role players, and large financial commitments to Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. There’s hope, but it’s going to take quite a while.

Top five farm systems at year’s end (in no particular order): Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta, Washington, Oakland

What really happened: This is a subjective ranking, so it is impossible to list the no-brainer five “best”. Most reasonable observers would agree that Texas and Oakland have the best farm systems in baseball right now, with impressive frontline talent backed by incredible depth. Montreal is almost certainly out after a season that saw much of its promising young pitching aside from Jordan Zimmerman derailed by injuries.

Leaving Atlanta out of a top-10 ranking would be an absolute joke, but some might be hard-pressed to bump them up to the upper-half of the top third. I personally think they have to be right up there with Oakland and Texas, boasting a couple of elite prospects buttressed by an impressive collection of depth and high-ceiling talent.

Tampa Bay still has Price, who hasn’t burned his prospect eligibility, to go with the talented arms of Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, and a collection of solid prospects. I really find these four teams difficult to argue, with a system like San Francisco or possibly Boston probably rounding out my personal top 5.

Elite prospects are the kinds of talent you can rarely acquire via trade or free agency, which propels systems high in any ranking. But when coupled with impressive depth and high-risk/high-reward types, it’s tough to see those systems as anywhere lower on a list. Every team needs its share of solid regulars, innings-eaters, and setup men, and high-risk types occasionally turn into the next crop of top-tier talent.

I am not comfortable ordering the systems I just listed without further research, but I feel that Oakland, Texas, and Atlanta should be considered tier 1 with the others I mentioned not too far behind.

Worst five farm systems at year’s end (in no particular order): Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Florida, Cleveland/Toronto/Seattle/LAA? I’m having a tough time with a fifth team.

What really happened: I definitely need more research before I can convincingly write about any truly poor farm systems, but I think it should be noted that no one will be talking about any of these teams as legitimate candidates for a top 5 system ranking. Some (Pittsburgh, St. Louis) cannot boast a significant amount more than one premium to semi-premium prospect. Others are on the rise but still have work to do (Toronto, Cleveland). Still others (Seattle) look to be in complete disarray. Much more on the minor leagues during the winter.

Bold Predictions Revisited, Part I

2008-10-24T02:11:00.005-04:00

Back on March 29th, I made a number of fairly random predictions that came to mind as I realized I had embarked upon divisional previews that were much too in-depth for me to get to every team. I had a couple huge flops and some nice successes, but figured this would be as good a time as any to look back on how things turned out.

Oakland finishes in 2nd place in the AL West ahead of Seattle – Analysts are overlooking Seattle’s luck in their record last year, overrating the impact of Erik Bedard versus the replacement cost of George Sherrill and Adam Jones, and ignoring that Seattle sports a notoriously average lineup. Oakland may yet win only seventy games this year, but despite rebuilding, this team has a number of players with untapped upside who could help propel them to a surprising .500 season.

What really happened: Oakland (75-86) fell just 3 ½ games short of second place Texas (79-83) and finished within shouting distance of .500. Still, the team finished 14 ½ games ahead of Seattle (61-101), the worst team in the American League. Seattle, with a mediocre offense and an aging core, was fairly easy to predict as a bad team, in my opinion. Erik Bedard threw just 81 innings (3.67 ERA), while George Sherrill (31 saves, 58 K in 53.1 IP) and Adam Jones (.270/.311/.400) are cost-controlled by Baltimore for several more years. Not to mention Seattle dealt three of their better prospects in addition to the pair of major leaguers. Nice going, M’s. Oakland meanwhile stayed above .500 until trading big talent like Rich Harden and Joe Blanton, as GM Billy Beane realized the team just didn’t have the punch to catch the Angels. Overall, this is a win, mainly because so many analysts had Seattle winning 85-90 games.

Kansas City leapfrogs Chicago and possibly Minnesota in the AL Central. Though sporting John Bale and Brett Tomko in the rotation isn’t necessarily a great way to exemplify it, Dayton Moore has quietly built a rarity in Kansas City – a respectable pitching staff. The addition of Jose Guillen, as well as a full season of Billy Butler and potential improvements from a host of younger players including Alex Gordon may mean the beginning of the end of the Royals’ futility.

What really happened: Well, I look pretty freaking foolish for suggesting the 4th place team in the NL Central might fare better than the two teams who needed a one-game playoff to decide the division winner.

The good news is that the pitching staff did look respectable, if unspectacular. Zack Greinke and Gil Meche again formed a solid rotation core, and a 24-year-old Kyle Davies began delivering on some of his promise after two abysmal seasons, showcasing a sparkling 2.27 September ERA. Joakim Soria is quietly one of the most dominant closers in the league, and Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez both continued to emerge as viable setup men. Robinson Tejeda looked brilliant out of the pen with more than a strikeout per inning after being claimed off waivers from Texas. The optimism ends there, but those seven pitchers form a very strong core staff, and with young arms reaching the high minors as well as a developing Luke Hochevar, this group is well on its way.

The offense was anemic, scoring just 691 runs (12th in the AL). It sported two black holes at catcher and second base. The good news is that the team has promising OBP machine Alberto Callaspo to plug in at second, and lots of room for improvement at 1B, 3B, DH, LF, and RF. With Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and either Ryan Shealy or Kila Ka’aihue to cover three of these spots, time, patience, and a little luck are all that’s required to envision this offense developing into an 800+ run per season strength to cap the decade. Playoff ETA: 2010-2012, depending on the development of Butler, Gordon, and Hochevar.

Houston loses, and loses badly. GM Ed Wade has foolishly tried to make this team into a contender, making a number of moves that figure to prove to be of little net gain while apparently being oblivious to the obvious lack of pitching that his trades have only exacerbated. Outside of Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jose Valverde, there is little on this pitching staff that belongs on a major league roster.

What really happened: The team won 86 games despite a Pythagorean record of 77-84. This team is a good example of the volatility of relief pitching, as minor league sign Tim Byrdak and career middle reliever Geoff Geary emerged as strong setup men for Valverde. Additionally, the Astros traded a non-prospect to the Yankees for LaTroy Hawkins, who promptly struck out 25 and allowed just one earned run in 21 innings with Houston.

As for the offense, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee mashed as usual, Miguel Tejada was predictably mediocre, and Ty Wigginton contributed horrendous defense at 3rd but a surprisingly very productive bat. Going into 2009, the Astros again sport black holes at catcher and center, with no personnel changes imminent. It’s difficult for me to see the team again getting such a stroke of luck on a number of outcasts and over-performing by nine wins. And by the way, the farm system is still atrocious.

Luke Scott establishes himself as a regular in Baltimore after finally being given the starting job he probably could have handled each of the last two seasons. With 550 plate appearances, Scott slugs 30 homers to go with solid on-base skills, and is dealt in the offseason to aid the rebuilding in Baltimore.

What really happened: Scott suffered through a miserable September (.181/.192/.319 in 73 PA) to drag down his otherwise very nice season line, but overall proved to be a capable regular, accumulating similar numbers to what he’d produced as a part-timer in Houston over the past couple of years. His .257/.336/.472 line, while above-average yet underwhelming, overshadows his strong and consistent platoon split that indicates he is a strong asset against right-handed pitching.

Scott slugged only 23 homers and his on-base skills slipped in September, but he overall is a decent above-average outfielder whom the Orioles should absolutely look to move in their rebuilding effort. A 31-year-old corner outfielder is not going to be part of the next Orioles playoff team unless he’s coaching it.

Oakland starter Dana Eveland doesn’t look back after winning the 5th starter job out of Spring Training, going 13-10 with a 4.35 ERA and a K/9 around 7. He cements himself as mid-rotation starter who has less to worry about with the upcoming onslaught of excellent Oakland pitching hitting the upper minors.

What really happened: Eveland won the 5th starter job out of Spring Training and ended the year 9-9 with a 4.34 ERA and a 6.32 K/9. Nailed it. Of course, with a 4.13 BB/9, Eveland is really more of a back-end guy who is helped tremendously by the pitcher-friendly park he calls home. Still, he has a rotation spot next year, he just needs to better conditioned and get the BB rate down a bit to become interesting long-term.

Following several disappointing seasons and elbow soreness last fall, Jeremy Bonderman goes under the knife in 2008.

What really happened: Well, Bonderman went under the knife, but it wasn’t for Tommy John surgery. After having his shoulder examined in early June, Bonderman missed the rest of the season as he had a rib removed to correct his “thoracic outlet syndrome”, which was causing a blood clot in a major vein. Bonderman will be 26 next season, and just completed his 6th season in MLB. Yes, he was rushed to the bigs during Detroit’s period of simply horrid baseball, but he has also managed just one season that has not been solidly below average. He remains one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball.

Part II coming shortly.

New Poll

2008-10-15T02:50:00.002-04:00

No, don't call me a bandwagoner. This team has been bordering on exciting for a couple years now, and it truly is now. I'll ballwash the Rays more soon once they mercifully finish off the walking wounded Red Sox, but this is easily my 2nd favorite team in baseball right now. Young, strong in all three facets of the game, and a homegrown small-market team with plenty of talent left in the pipeline. This is what Pittsburgh's front office dreams of putting on the field in 8 years if its ownership commits to a long-term plan that prioritizes winning starting tomorrow.

Calling out bad "journalism"

2008-10-09T21:07:00.002-04:00

Joe Sheehan has a great piece up at Baseball Prospectus today (and it's actually free content!) regarding the Manny situation and dealing with some of the major issues with mainstream sport coverage today. In other words, I think it speaks volumes about the personal agendas and tendency towards making unsubstantiated claims prevalent among the talking heads, whether they're coming from ESPN, Fox, or any number of other sources. Check it out.

It’s time that this stops, and all I can do to make it stop is put facts out there and hope that they get to baseball fans, to television executives, and maybe, just maybe, to a TV booth in St. Petersburg. Facts matter. Data matters. Facts and data don’t have agendas, don’t like or dislike individuals, aren’t invested in a particular storyline or protecting their friends and sources. Facts just sit there on the page and dare you to ignore them. There are links all over this article. Click them and verify the claims I make in this piece.

AL vs. NL - league imbalance

2008-10-06T01:54:00.002-04:00

Eric Van (Red Sox front office statistician) has an interesting and excellent thread up over at Sons of Sam Horn examining the competitive imbalance of the two leagues today. If you have a stomach for advanced metrics and math, it's worth checking out.

Among the highlights:

--The average AL club is actually 5.2 wins better than their record; the average NL club is 4.6 wins worse. By Pyth, it's 5.6 and 5.0. So there's at least a 10-win difference in quality; a .500 AL team is a 91- or 92-win NL pennant contender.
--The six best best clubs in baseball (and 7 of the best 8) are AL clubs, based on actual W/L record. Based on Pyth, 8 of the best 9 clubs are AL clubs.
--Nine of the ten worst clubs are NL clubs, by actual record. By Pyth, 12 of the worst 14 clubs in MLB are in the NL.
--Four of the six best clubs in MLB by W/L record, and the three best clubs by Pyth, are in the AL East.
--The Royals would be tied with the Dodgers for the NL West lead.

The Rule 4 Draft and Returns on Long-Term Investments

2008-09-16T03:13:00.004-04:00

Obviously posting has been very sporadic over the past several weeks. The second half of the summer was devoted to working (as usual), but the fact that I've been working to book bands for a couple dozen concerts at Elon this year severely hampered my free time. Now that the school year is here, once I'm through with commitments and work for the night, I usually have no desire to do any thinking beyond what limited mental capacity it takes to put towards video games.

I will try to check in every now and then, especially around playoff and especially hot stove time. However, this is a larger announcement that I've decided I would like to take writing and researching about baseball more seriously. When I write a detailed post, it usually takes a couple of hours of work, but obviously unless I dedicated significant time towards research (you know, without having databases full of information at my disposal like some of the familiar mainstream SABR sites), it's difficult to go in depth with analysis and maintain an even semi-frequent posting schedule. I'll be spending much of what little free time I have this semester pouring work into research that I hope actually says something that maybe has not yet been investigated, or that better yet is well-documented and deep enough to publish and/or present at a sport management conference next year.

I've read plenty of draft studies analyzing the average return on a draft solely in terms of career production (e.g. the career VORP of all 1992 draftees), and certainly we know that sites such as Baseball Prospectus have done a boatload of work on analyzing career peaks, player projections, and to a broader extent analyzing the valuation of free agents and cost-controlled players alike with a dollar value.

However, what I've failed to come across so far is a study that focuses on the return on investments in scouting, drafting, and player development in quantitative terms. What I plan to undertake is a study of at least one draft class from the early to mid-'90s that accounts for signing bonuses, minor league salaries, and the money expended on the players who do reach the show during their cost-controlled years with a team prior to that player reaching free agency. In other words, though the methodology will be fairly complex, I want to look at what teams should invest and expect to get out of the draft monetarily. I will account for many of the costs of developing talent (excluding those of institutions in place, such as coaching staffs, minor league facilities, and so forth) and study the pre-free agency production of players relative to the money teams have invested in them. I will finally compare this investment to the production and cost of players via free agency, and analyze how a team can improve its on-field product by either avenue (draft or free agency) and how the costs and benefits of each compare with one another.

Because I don't work for Baseball America and don't have access to a gigantic archive of past drafts, this will require many, many hours of inputing both draft information as well as the statistical achievements of players that reach MLB. It will also require a lengthy explanation of the aforementioned costs that will not be directly included in the analysis. But most of all, it will be an exciting project for me in that it is certainly the most difficult topic I've tried to tackle before with regards to baseball, and I think it may produce some meaningful data.

Just about any avid baseball fan understands that the dynamics of today's game essentially require a strong farm system, which in turn means wise scouting and drafting. But I don't feel there is a true appreciation for the usually minimal returns on drafting, and there is certainly little to no work done in trying to quantify the cost of building a nucleus of young cost-controlled talent at the MLB level. We understand that players typically peak before hitting free agency, and then receive monster paychecks based on past performance, not always with a realistic expectation of what is to come. These are very, very important principles when attempting to analyze the dynamics of today's baseball economy, but quantifying these principles in dollars and cents can give us a broader view of just how vital long-term planning truly is if a priority of ownership is to put a perennial contender on the field, which is not always a primary goal. Alternatively, the research may suggest that today's drafting strategies place too much emphasis on the future and result in a great deal of sunk costs.

I think that trying to quantify these costs can give us a better sense of cost-benefit analysis in long-term strategy for teams with regards to on-field performance, and can lead to future research that perhaps has not yet been undertaken. Either way, with large payroll teams like the Red Sox and Yankees pouring money into the draft to grab players later on who fall due to bonus demands, the research is especially relevant in analyzing the foresight (or overzealous spending) of these teams.

If this was a little too much information to process, it makes more sense to look at the underlying questions that fuel this research.

* Should every team place a premium on the amateur draft? And if so, how much is too much?
* What is a realistic expectation for a successful and unsuccessful draft, and how do these relate to the money a team will invest to achieve either outcome?
* Is free agency still a realistic way for a team on the cusp of contention to retool, or should it be treated as an afterthought when few premium players ever hit the open market in a given season?
* Do larger monetary draft investments correlate with winning years later, or is total payroll and thus the ability to pluck the free agent market of talent a better indicator of success?
* Can a draft that produces only one MLB player be considered anything besides a failure?

Intuitively, many of us are familiar with the reasonable answers to these questions, but it's difficult to have a feel for just how ahead of the curve we should expect an organization strong in scouting and development to be. I'm excited by the potential of this research, and though the results may end up being less useful than I currently hope for, it should be a blast to investigate these broad topics on a much more in-depth basis than most get the opportunity to.

I will try to post occasional updates and still have breaking down my collection of prospects' video footage on the ledger for the offseason, but the bulk of my baseball-savvy time will be devoted to this project. Thanks for staying tuned.

Royals Article, Take III

2008-08-24T22:24:00.001-04:00

Real updates resuming one day.

Royals Article, Take II

2008-08-11T10:47:00.000-04:00

The Twins affiliate in our league is pretty damn good.

Burlington Routs Pulaski

2008-07-26T00:18:00.002-04:00

Given that I wasn't even at the game since the Royals were on the road tonight, I'd give my official game recap about a 7.8 out of 10.

Pulaski made nine errors in the game, which they lost 13-7.

Huntsville - Carolina: Initial Reactions

2008-07-25T06:48:00.003-04:00

I made it out to Zebulon, North Carolina, last night for a Huntsville Stars vs. Carolina Mudcats game. Non-coincidentally, it also happened to be a Thirsty Thursday, which I would not recommend with a 5:30 alarm awaiting you in the morning. I took video of seven players that (keeping with this summer's trend) I will probably never get around to editing, freeze-framing, writing about, or posting. Actually, I will. But that's sounding less and less optimistic each time I say it.

In a game that featured six prospects of interest to me (Angel Salome, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, and Cole Gillespie of Huntsville, and Gaby Sanchez and John Raynor of Carolina - Alcides Escobar of Huntsville and Cameron Maybin and Chris Coghlan of Carolina were sitting out), as well as a rehab start by Anibal Sanchez, the player that stood out by far to me was Salome.

Though I will try to have more detailed notes up in the future - and I left my notepad itself at home - Salome looked ugly in his first at-bat of game 2 but REALLY grew on me. He took a couple big hacks and was pulling his head off the ball early. But later on, with Gamel on 2nd, he put together a fantastic at-bat. Angel saw 13 pitches, fouling off five consecutive offerings to the 1B side before finally being put away on a very borderline low strike call (Angel wasn't thrilled about this). Most of the pitches looked to be offspeed setup low and away, so I was impressed by the plate coverage after his hacks earlier would lead me to believe this might be a problem area for him.

His defensive skills do look as good as advertised, as well, though I only got to see the arm a little bit. The real shocker for me was Angel's speed, as he beat out an infield single in his third at-bat. I thought I remembered him being a little on the small side, but man can that guy fly. He looks like a pretty complete player to me and there's little doubt in my mind that he belongs right behind Orioles backstop Matt Wieters as the #2 catching prospect in baseball.

Jon Rauch to the D'Backs

2008-07-24T08:42:00.003-04:00

This happened a couple of days ago, but nonetheless, I can't say that I really understand this deal from the Nationals perspective. The team picked up infielder Emilio Bonifacio - a decent player who likely tops out as a utility man - in return for Jon Rauch, a 29-year-old righty who is undoubtedly one of the best relief arms who might change hands this summer.

My issue isn't with the return for Rauch based on this year's performance, though with a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP to go with 46 Ks in 49.1 IP while filling in as closer in lieu of Chad Cordero, it's hard to argue that the return on Rauch for this year's performance alone was all that acceptable. Keep in mind that Scott Linebrink commanded three prospects in last year's Milwaukee-San Diego deal, including Will Inman, who has probably solidified his case as a top-25 pitching prospect, despite being a free agent at season's end.

The main issue is that Rauch is controlled through 2010. He's signed for $2 million next season with a 2010 option worth $2.9 million. Given the absurdity of the free agent relief market, as well as Rauch's performance record, this is no doubt a bargain. And barring injury, Rauch can look forward to a lucrative multiyear contract following his 2010 season should he continue to pitch as a strong setup man, which will net the Diamondbacks a pair of draft picks should they lose him to free agency.

Bonifacio isn't a useless piece - he offers speed and strong defense, but he also has serious contact issues (528 Ks in 648 MILB games) that negate the skills that otherwise would make him a fine leadoff man. And there is something to be said for Washington's lack of middle infield talent, Cristian Guzman extension aside. But this looks like a pretty low return for what is a very valuable commodity for the short and long-term. Josh Byrnes strikes again.

Miscellaneous Prospect Update

2008-07-22T11:55:00.003-04:00

This is a clever way for me to interject a fantasy league post for my 60-man roster keeper league. I'm doing a midseason writeup on my farm system, which while beginning the year as among the worst in the league, has rebounded to a slightly below-average system (in my opinion). The plan is for the team, which has a strong but aging core, to make the playoffs hopefully this season as well as next (by being fairly inactive in the offseason and taking a wait-and-see approach pre-trade deadline), and then hopefully improve the farm enough so that beyond next season, building around Scott Kazmir and Tim Lincecum isn't impossible.

(1) LHP Tyler Robertson – 6’5” 220 – Age 20
2.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.71 GB/FB - 31/73 BB/K in 82.2 IP - FSL

Robertson is certainly a controversial prospect in that while it’s hard to argue that his statistical record is fantastic, his scouting report leaves much to be desired. You can observe Robertson’s funky mechanics via the link above, though he repeats them consistently, which I believe limits the danger of said mechanics. His fastball velocity has dipped a little, however, and he would need to make a lot of progress with his offspeed pitches to project as more than a back-end starter. Some even see him as a lefty-specialist at best. I tend to be a little more optimistic; we need to see Tyler at AA to really evaluate whether his stuff can hold up, but he’s 20 for the full season, and absolutely has time on his side.

(2)RH C Taylor Teagarden – 6’1” 200 – Age 24
.169/.279/.305 – 8/23 BB/K in 68 PA – TEX
.238/.352/.409 – 27/49 BB/K in 194 PA – PCL

Teagarden’s stock drops after a mammoth CAL league performance in which he slugged 20 homers in just 292 at bats (though as a 23-year-old in high-A). After a strong trial there at the end of 2007, Teagarden struggled in AA before moving up to AAA, where he’s been merely adequate. Keep in mind the PCL is a very favorable hitting environment, but the good news is that Teagarden is – from what I’ve heard and read – still excellent defensively even after Tommy John surgery, and should be an asset regardless of how much his bat develops. While Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein worried about Teagarden’s arm strength in June, he lauded his catch-and-throw skills in a Futures Game article the other day.

(3) RHP Juan Ramirez – 6’3 175 – Age 19
4.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.26 GB/FB - 27/72 BB/K in 82.1 IP – MWL

Ramirez is flying under the radar, but quickly establishing himself as a potential breakout prospect for the 2009 season, when he will at this pace be one of the youngest players in high-A. His mediocre ERA disguises some impressive peripherals, especially given his age and the level of competition. Occasionally touching 96 with a fastball that sits 92-94 despite his stocky build, Ramirez is a high-upside arm who with improvement in his offspeed pitches could lead a rotation in several years. Remember that we would be talking about him as a 2010 draft prospect were he American and in college. Look for him on the front third of post-2009 top 100 lists barring injury.

(4) RHP George Kontos – 6’3” 215 – Age 23
3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 0.77 GB/FB - 38/100 BB/K in 104.1 IP - EAS

Kontos has continued his trend of striking out close to a batter an inning this season, as well his trend of flying under the radar behind more high-profile Yankee prospects like outfielders Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson. With three quality pitches as well as a mediocre changeup, this 2006 fifth-rounder seems poised for a shot at a rotation spot as early as next season.

(5) RH OF Greg Golson – 6’0” 190 – Age 22
.299/.333/.455 – 14/80 BB/K in 285 PA - EAS

The bad news is that this incredibly poor display of plate discipline is actually a slight improvement over previous years, which was more magnified before Golson was sidelined with a left wrist injury. The good news is that Golson’s excellent arm and strong centerfield defense make it tough to consider his floor much lower than a decent 4th outfielder; his glove will certainly play at the MLB level when called upon. Golson has as much upside as anyone around, but his terrible discipline reduces the value of his modest doubles power and blazing speed. Even improving to below-average ratios would make Golson a very good player. Age is on his side, but analysts have been saying that for quite some time.

(6) LH C John Jaso – 6’2” 205 – Age 24
.271/.408/.405 – 62/33 BB/K in 356 PA - SOU
.438/.438/.500 – 0/2 BB/K in 16 PA - INT

That, my friends, is an absurdly good eye at the plate. Jaso has now walked far more than he’s struck out two years running – don’t let the low batting average fool you, as obviously a catcher with a little less speed than the average player will also tend to have a lower average on balls in play. Jaso looks like an asset at the plate with his excellent discipline and modest power, and his defense has improved to make him at least average behind the plate, whereas there were whispers of it necessitating a move to first base a couple years back. Jaso could be the starting catcher for Tampa Bay within a year if they didn’t already have a very good one in All-Star Dioner Navarro. Sooner or later, Jaso is going to need to get a shot somewhere; he probably already played far more in the Southern League than he really needed to.

(7) RHP Zech Zinicola – 6’1” 220 – Age 23
0.00 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 2.14 GB/FB – 3/15 BB/K in 12.1 IP - CAR
2.89 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 1.50 GB/FB – 13/13 BB/K in 18.2 IP - EAS
6.06 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.08 GB/FB – 4/11 BB/K in 16.1 IP – INT

Zinicola’s AAA numbers looked solid until a five-run inning on July 20th, but overall he’s had a nice consolidation season after his disaster of a 2007. After being pushed to AA last season as a college-draftee closer (how many Joey Devines, Craig Hansens, and Ryan Wagners is it going to take to stop promoting these guys at light speed towards MLB?), Zinicola’s strong sinker-slider combination again have him looking like a long-term setup man. He may see a call up down the stretch, but a more realistic ETA is 2009. It’d be nice to see the walk totals come down, but in my opinion he can survive without doing so thanks to the high groundball rate.

(8) RH 1B/OF Nick Evans – 6’3” 210 – Age 22
.311/.365/.561 – 26/64 BB/K in 326 PA – EAS
.243/.256/.324 – 1/12 BB/K in 39 PA – MLB

Nick was enjoying a breakout season in AA Binghamton when the continued flurry of Mets outfield injuries caused the team to call him up a second time. Plus power and an affinity for lefty-mashing are Evans’ calling cards, which certainly has its value. I wouldn’t be shocked if Evans can develop into a regular (and some have argued that an Evans/Mike Carp platoon may be preferable to resigning an aging Carlos Delgado), but would be happy to see him develop into the kind of excellent platoon player that, due to my league’s playing time allocation and emphasis on platoon splits, I can leverage into star-level production with a righty-hitting partner.

(9) SH C Frank Cervelli – 6’1” 210 – Age 22
.300/.364/.300 – 0/3 BB/K in 11 PA – FSL

Cervelli was hurt before the season even started due to a home plate collision with middling Rays infield prospect Elliot Johnson. He looks like a long-term backup who, with added power, could profile as a regular. Frank offers strong defense and excellent plate discipline, though he of course will have trouble putting on a fireworks display following the broken wrist he sustained in the collision. Still, given the pitiful offense of the catchers as a whole today, Cervelli could still probably end up as a starter or strong-half of a platoon without adding a whole lot to his current game. After a brief search, I was unable to find any reason why Frank came back for a very brief FSL stint in late June before disappearing from box scores again.

(10) RHP Fabio Castillo – 6’1 190 – Age 19
5.94 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 1.06 GB/FB – 33/54 BB/K in 66.2 IP - MWL

With a high-90s fastball and curve that has occasionally looked like a plus pitch in the past (and very mediocre at others), Castillo has as much upside as any of the Rangers collection of high-upside low-minors arms. He’s holding his own in A-ball at 19, but at the same time is likely to be overshadowed by some of the other younger Rangers prospects should he begin to enjoy more success.

(11) RH SS Juan Silverio – 6’1” 175 – Age 17
.233/.293/.359 – 7/27 BB/K in 117 PA – APP

Silverio is a long-term project, but he’s also an international player whose power, athleticism, and speed all point to a potentially very exciting long-term commodity. As I watched Silverio annihilate Royals pitching during his visit to Burlington, I noted that he looks a lot more like a corner infielder than a shortstop, but Kevin Goldstein seems to think that he can stick there. My feeling is that his bat is probably good enough to move as is, so it may be of little importance. Silverio should follow in the steps of outfielder Jose Martinez next season and advance to full-season ball as an 18-year-old.

(12) RH 1B Aaron Bates – 6’4” 232 – Age 24
.288/.370/.415 – 31/69 BB/K in 362 PA – EAS

This is a pretty average line for a AA player, and age isn’t on his side, but keep in mind that Bates hit a paltry .266/.352/.291 in April that is ruining an otherwise pretty nice year for AA Portland. Remember that April weather in the northeast is pretty miserable, with the cold and inclement weather depressing power and offense in general. The fact that Bates’ excellent plate discipline remained strong in April tells me that he wasn’t necessarily struggling, but that he was adjusting to a pretty terrible environment. Bates lacks big-time upside, but I tend to favor players with a combination of solid above-average power and excellent plate discipline – teams find ways to employ these kinds of bats. He definitely would need a trade to start full-time, but I think he stands of passing Jeff Bailey as the Sox first corner IF call up next year. He won’t have a whole lot of breathing room for struggles, but may be able to establish himself as a 300-400 PA semi-starter for a few years with the Sox, which given playing time in my league, would turn him into a full-time player at 1B or DH. There are better uses of roster spots, but I’m rooting for the guy and don’t intend to cut him.

(13) RHP J. Brent Cox – 6’3” 205 – Age 24
3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 3.00 GB/FB – 2/2 BB/K in 6 IP – FSL
1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 1.00 GB/FB – 2/6 BB/K in 6.2 IP – EAS
3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.21 GB/FB – 10/10 BB/K in 25.1 IP – INT

Cox looks to me like a solid secondary setup man – IE your typical 7th inning guy – at his best, but his command will need to catch up a bit following Tommy John surgery. Cox is a groundball pitcher without exceptional stuff, and with a slew of other relief arms to compete with for limited spots in the Yankee pen. Nevertheless, I’m glad to have picked him up on the fly as a secondary piece of a deal. Players like Cox who offer close production have greatly helped in balancing out my system a little bit, despite limited upside.

(14) RH 3B Matt Tuiasosopo – 6’2” 210 – Age 22
.266/.355/.408 – 36/66 BB/K in 349 PA - PCL

Like many Mariners prospects, Tuiasosopo has been pushed hard at every level, making his AAA debut before his 22nd birthday. He has plenty of time to adjust, and appears to have been doing so in June (.293/.398/.547 – 11/15 BB/K) and July (.317/.421/.444 – 11/12 BB/K). At this rate, he should see a call up next year, and may even deserve a look down the stretch as the last-place Mariners once again reevaluate the future of the team. Improved discipline to go with offensive tools he’s always had overshadow Matt’s major shortcoming, his glove. With 22 errors already this season, the former shortstop is likely to move to first base or even a corner outfield spot, where his bat would be less interesting. Nonetheless, he has time to figure things out.

(15) RH 3B Pedro Baez – 6’2” 199 – Age 20
.315/.344/.532 – 6/29 BB/K in 131 PA – PIO
.178/.244/.259 – 17/45 BB/K in 211 PA – MWL

Baez wasn’t quite ready for the Midwest league, but he offers plus tools and has some time to refine them. To me, the key with Pedro will be plate discipline, as he has shown a pretty poor approach thus far. He won’t be able to afford struggling when he gets another try at A-ball. I believe I remember Baseball America offering that his profile was similar to that of Andy Laroche at the same age. That may be a shade optimistic, but Baez has a boatload of talent.

(16) RHP Sergio Perez – 6’3” 230 – Age 23
2.45 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1.38 GB/FB – 3/16 BB/K in 18.1 IP – TEX

It took me quite a while to find actual information on where this guy’s been (I forgot I owned him). He missed the first several weeks of the season with a groin injury, then injured his fingers bunting during his fourth start of the season. Basically, it looks like this may come close to being a lost year despite no actual arm injuries. I may hold onto him simply because he has two good pitches and Houston lacks any quality pitching depth whatsoever, but it’s a wait-and-see situation.

(17) RH SS Brent Brewer – 6’2” 190 – Age 19
.213/.294/.310 – 18/54 BB/K in 196 PA – SAL
.219/.270/.281 – 8/27 BB/K in 140 PA – FSL

Brewer has excellent offensive and defensive tools, but lacks skills – that is, while Brewer is a hell of an athlete, he’s far from turning that package into the very good player he one day could develop into. Brewer led his league in both errors (48) and strikeouts (170) last season, and while he has improved in both areas, that’s not saying a whole lot. I think the most interesting thing to note with Brent is that despite his young age, his lack of production, and his obvious lack of a lengthy baseball background, he was promoted to the Florida State League to become one of the youngest regulars in high-A. I’m no director of player development, but I’d guess that that speaks volumes about how Milwaukee’s front office feels about this kid’s intangibles and makeup. Otherwise, there’s little reason whatsoever to push him so hard.

(18) RHP Carlos Pimentel – 6’3” 180 – Age 18
4.35 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 0.91 GB/FB – 19/24 BB/K in 31 IP – NOR

I can’t find a ton of information on him, but I am impressed by this performance for an 18-year-old. Another upside pick who needs a year or two before we really know a significant amount about his profile.

Likely cuts

RH 2B/SS Jose Martinez – AA (St. Louis), Age 22
.244/.289/.332 – 16/33 BB/K in 406 PA

What the hell happened here? I can’t really complain since I picked him up for a one-year bench player I hadn’t used all year, but his bat completely disappeared. Disappointing, especially now that he’s usually manning second base.

RHP Jay Rainville – AA (Minnesota), Age 22
6.27 ERA, 1.57 WHIP. 28/45 BB/K in 79 IP

In the words of Incubus, “Nice to know you, goodbye”. The only temptation to retain him is his pedigree as a first-rounder and his age relative to league; an awful line without any groundball tendencies. His recent success all came while in the Florida State League, a pitcher-friendly environment.

RHP Blake Hawksworth – AAA (St. Louis), Age 25
6.22 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. 26/52 BB/K in 55 IP

A 2006 rebound season after Tommy John surgery led me to take a flier on Hawksworth despite a poor 2007. While his K rate remains strong, at some point it’s time to realize his arm may never be fully back again. He has since been passed by a wave of young Cardinals arms.

RH C Ty Weeden – A (Boston), Age 20
.225/.319/.422 - 22/63 BB/K in 213 PA

Originally drafted basically so I could follow some Red Sox bats through the system (drafted alongside Engel Beltre and Aaron Bates), Weeden has failed to impress, though he is still very young. My main issues are that he was touted as an offense-first catcher who would have to work to stay behind the plate. Because of this, little progress at the plate is something I scrutinize a little more, and there are already plenty of prospects in the Sox system alone more interesting than Ty.

OF Jason Pridie – AAA (Minnesota), Age 24
.250/.283/.409 – 19/104 BB/K in 427 PA

I can’t complain too much since he was a 14th round draft pick, but I fully expected Pridie to buy himself some playing time as a competent fourth outfielder following a monster .318/.375/.539 campaign for AAA Durham before Tampa Bay traded him in the Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal. This is a pathetic season and without any inside information as to what is going on, I’m going to go ahead and say Pridie is dead as a prospect in my eyes.

2B Justin Snyder – A (New York (AL)), Age 22
.296/.363/.414 – 40/65 BB/K in 411 PA

Not too good, not too bad, but he’s in the SAL league at age 22 and that’s the issue. I don’t see an overwhelming reason to hold onto him and forego a draft pick.

RHP Yung-Il Jung – R (Los Angeles (AL)), Age 19

Pitched 9 innings in 2007, got hurt, and has been unheard from ever since. Where exactly is he?

Baseball Economics 101

2008-07-15T06:41:00.002-04:00

There's an interesting thread over at Sons of Sam Horn with an introduction to more in-depth player/transaction analysis and baseball economics. There's nothing too groundbreaking, but a nice introduction for anyone who ever scratches their heads at escalating salaries or deadline deals.

A Rhetorical Question

2008-07-13T03:18:00.002-04:00

I listened to the White Sox announcers talk for literally five minutes tonight about how Orlando Cabrera is a good player. That's fine, and they're certainly correct. What I took issue with was one of their contentions, which was that Cabrera "liked driving runners in", as opposed to other players who "didn't mind leaving runners for the next batter" or who "weren't always trying to drive runs in".

What hitter, where, when, EVER did not want to drive in a run? Hell, I think just about everyone in freaking Little League doesn't want to fail. So many old baseball cliches have their truth, but I have absolutely no idea what these guys were talking about with this one.

Harden, Gaudin to Cubs

2008-07-08T18:40:00.002-04:00

Per Sportscenter:

RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin to the Cubs
RHP Sean Gallagher, C Josh Donaldson, INF Eric Patterson, and OF Matt Murton to the A's

Honestly, I'm a bit surprised. The A's must be worried about Harden's health again, as every player the A's got back lacks star upside. They're all certainly useful pieces and just add to the depth of an absolutely loaded farm system, but one would think that given Harden's MLB-leading K/9 ratio, he may have been able to fetch a legitimately very good prospect in a package. Chad Gaudin is no slouch either as a reliever, and had success as a groundball-heavy starter last season.

Harden has a $7m option for 2009; the other five players involved are cost-controlled for quite some time. Very interesting...

New Poll

2008-07-08T14:15:00.003-04:00

I'm not going to write about this trade in particular because about 3600 other people covered it as it broke, but a new poll is up. Hooray for simplicity!

For what it's worth, I think this is a bold trade for both parties, but it could end up being a win-win. Cleveland as an organization lacks big power and the Brewers are suddenly very interesting should they make the playoffs, as a healthy Sheets and Sabathia pitching four times in a five-game series is pretty tough to beat. Another consideration is that though Matt LaPorta has a huge bat and will be cost-controlled for many years, the Brewers get two supplemental draft picks back if they lose Sabathia to free agency. So while it may appear to be a steep price to pay for a half-season rental, there's an insurance policy that makes giving up some solid young talent a bit easier to swallow.

Hall of Fame Benchmarks

2008-07-05T08:53:00.006-04:00

Something surprising I just realized is that Tigers shortstop Edgar Renteria has 2010 career hits and doesn't turn 33 until mid-August. He may have an outside shot at 3000 hits for as long as he can stay at shortstop.

Of course, this makes me again wonder how the BBWAA will deal with the historically "automatic" and usually arbitrary thresholds of player performance going forward. These thresholds include 3000 hits, 500 homers, and 300 wins. The voting committee has shown that it is willing to reconsider these milestones in excluding players such as Mark McGwire (583 career HR) from the Hall of Fame. However, without the convenient excuse of performance-enhancing drugs, how will players with questionable resumes but "round" numbers be evaluated once they are Hall-eligible?

Renteria broke in with the Marlins in 1996 as a 20-year-old, and was Florida's starting shortstop during its 1997 championship run. Edgar was certainly overshadowed by the late-90s/early-00s domination of the shortstop position by peers Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and pre-wrist injury Nomar Garciaparra. However, you may notice by checking out his Baseball Reference page that Renteria has been a pretty mediocre hitter throughout his career. Edgar has accumulated a 100+ OPS (above-average on-base plus slugging adjusted for league and era) in just five of thirteen seasons. Because his reputation as a defender is fairly average (and sometimes worse) in the eyes of fans, commentators, and defensive metrics alike, Renteria's offensive profile is pretty damning.

Renteria has, at his best, been a beneficiary of what I will refer to in future posts as a player with an "empty" batting line. Here's a quick rundown. Many of us are very familiar with the standard three-ratio split batting line: AVG/OBP/SLG. Without going into detail, OBP is the most correlated to run-scoring (you can't score if you're not on base), SLG is second (driving a runner home from first on a double accomplishes what two consecutive singles or three consecutive walks would produce in terms of runs), and AVG is third. Batting average is the most volatile for a couple of reasons. First, statistically it has quite a bit of noise from season to season no matter the player at hand.

Batting average is dependent on the defenders a hitter must avoid, as well as luck to a certain extent. If Batter A hits against the 2007 NL Gold Glove winners and Batter B hits against a team with a lead-footed infield, Batter A's batting average will inherently be lower than that of Batter B. "But why wouldn't the difference in average just be made up by all of the errors made by Batter B's poor infield?" Well, here's the catch. An infielder can't make an error on a ball he doesn't touch. So whereas the best defenders are getting a glove on and perhaps even making a play on many of Batter A's grounders, Batter B gets a free pass because many of his base hits are the very same grounders Batter A's defense would field cleanly. Granted, in a non-hypothetical season, obviously all batters are going to play against strong and weak defenses. But there really isn't any standard at all here; with an unbalanced schedule, injuries, substitutions, and so on, some batters are just going to get lucky and see a few more grounders go through the infield than another batter might.

And while we're at it, remember that on a ball up the middle, the difference between the grounder being fielded into an out and a base hit it is literally inches. Sometimes the bounces go a player's way, and sometimes they don't. The point is that it's necessary to understand that while contact hitting is a skill, there is still so much volatility in batting average that it remains a difficult metric to put much faith into. At the same time, it's wide usage and traditional role in the history of the game, box scores, and so forth means it's not exactly going away anytime soon. This feels like the end of a beer commercial: use batting average with moderation - calculate responsibly.

The second reason batting average fails to be illustrative of a player's productivity may seem like circular reasoning: a player's on-base percentage is indicative of his ability to produce runs, but his batting average fails to account for all the ways by which one can reach base (BB, HBP, H, etc.).

Player A: .264 AVG
Player B: .293 AVG

Which player was the more productive player for his team speaking strictly in terms of offense?

If you said Player B, you're wrong. Player A is Adam Dunn. While his slow speed and power-hitting profile contribute to a low contact and high strikeout rate, Dunn contributes greatly to run-scoring due to his two plus skills: his excellent plate discipline and power. I'm not even arguing that Dunn is a model player and he is absolutely poor in all other aspects of the game, like speed, defense, contact-hitting. But Adam has walked 100 times, blasted 40 homers, and doubled 25 times (OK, 24 one season) in each of his last four seasons. Batting average can't account for the fact that Dunn for his career has reached base 38% of the time, in the ballpark of some of the best leadoff hitters in MLB, such as Chone Figgins and Grady Sizemore.

Player B is Juan Pierre. While Pierre has maintained a high batting average throughout his career, the Juan of recent years is a very glorified 4th outfileder. His on-base percentage has hovered around .330 - decidedly mediocre - without the benefit of power to supplant it. So yes, Pierre's line might not look so bad in a box score where only his batting average shows up. As a .293/.331/.353 hitter for the Dodgers last year, however, he was a major drain on the rest of the lineup. While one would not be wrong in noting that Pierre's speed plays well with his contact ability and may further increase his run production, I would note that in general, basestealing does not dramatically do this (however, it IS vital to any team for the situations where speed, the hit and run, and a stolen base matter most!). In Pierre's case, his career 75% success rate means that in the grand scheme of a season, the net gain in run scoring versus outs accumulated via being caught stealing is minimal at best.

Let's take a hypothetical player and give him 500 plate appearances. He gets 150 hits, good for a .300 batting average. Leaving walks and power completely out of the equation, his batting line would be .300/.300/.300 - in other words, dreadful, and a black hole in any lineup. How about he only gets 100 hits, but draws 75 walks in the process? .235/.350/.235. Again, very poor, but we're leaving power out of the equation entirely and assuming all hits are singles. Though this player is still not very productive, notice the large discrepancy between the batting average and on-base percentage. Unlike the first example, the player dramatically adds to his productivity in ways besides batting average. It's not an "empty" average as in the first example, in which the player's productivity lies solely in his contact ability and luck.

500 plate appearances, 75 walks, and 100 hits. But now we give this guy a bit of a power stroke. He socks 25 homers, 25 doubles, and 50 singles. No triples, no stolen bases. .235/.350/.500. Now we've got ourselves a pretty productive player, who given what we can guess about his skill set (limited speed, possibly contributing to poor defense) may be a perfectly above-average designated hitter, first baseman, or left fielder.

Follow? Batting average doesn't tell the whole story. I believe it certainly has its applications, but you really can't tell a damn thing about a player's offensive capabilities without knowing if he can take a walk or hit for power (and to a much lesser extent steal bases at a high success rate).

Anyway, back to Renteria. If we take out his only shortened seasons - 1996 (rookie), 2007 (injury), and 2008 (incomplete season) - Renteria has averaged 163.7 hits/season. Let's call an average non-decline phase season for Renteria 165 hits. With another 80 hits or so on the way for the remainder of 2008, Edgar would need about 5.5 more seasons to reach 3000, hitting the milestone right around his 39th birthday. This is a bit of a stretch, and if Edgar loses playing time (he has typically started about 150 games per year) or has bad luck with injuries, his chance at the mark diminishes considerably.

Outside of a couple of his peak seasons, Renteria has shown pretty average plate discipline and certainly lacks home run power, though he has racked up some impressive doubles totals. It is unfair to call him an "empty batting average" player as I did earlier, though Atlanta rebound aside in 2006-2007, he appeared headed for that fate in his 30s. He doesn't excel with plate discipline or power (what I will be in the future referring to as "secondary skills"), but he certainly has helped his team in these areas and as a middle infielder, a .290/.348/.404 career line is nothing to yawn at.

Still, it's hard to consider those exceptional numbers, especially during a time when offensive standards were raised considerably. Though I don't think anyone can argue that Renteria in his prime and even today is a significant asset (beginning of 2008 aside), was he ever truly among the best in MLB? What will hurt him the most is that unlike Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith, his average-ish defense won't help him overcome questions about the bat. Still, Edgar is a .291 career hitter, and the BBWAA has made some questionable selections before, so I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

Making History

2008-07-02T09:38:00.003-04:00

I am becoming convinced that I am watching one of the worst teams in the history of professional baseball each time I see my Burlington Royals take the field.

As I've noted in several other pieces, the team plays in the Appalachian League, a 10-team Rookie-level circuit usually dominated by the Twins and Braves affiliates. The team thus far has been completely overmatched in all aspects of the game, most recently dropping a three-game set with Elizabethton (Twins) by a combined score of 34 to 5 despite two of the games being shortened by rain. With a 1-13 (.071) start, about the only silver lining I can find is to fall back on a small sample size argument. Of course, this would understate the level by which this team has been dominated all season.

With 50 runs scored (in an incredible 14 games) against 105 allowed, the team's Pythagorean record equates to a .184 winning percentage, or 12.5 wins out of the league's 68-game season. The Pythagorean theorem gives us a rough estimate of what a team's record "should" be based on its run scoring and prevention; slight deviations from the result are caused by run distribution. Let's help the Royals out a bit here and round them up a half win to an awe-inspiring 13-55 record on the year, good for a .191 winning percentage. At this rate, the team would be the worst professional baseball team in the modern era, "besting" the 1916 Philadelphia A's, who went 36-117 in accumulating a .235 winning percentage.

Let's start with the pitchers. The team's collective 6.47 ERA is dead last in the Appalachian League, though Bluefield (Orioles, 6.00) is almost as weak here. Then again, Bluefield is also the next-worst team in the league. I was surprised to find that the Royals are dead average in BB/9 relative to the league, but the staff does markedly worse when compared to the league average of each of the other peripheral metrics.

H/9: League (.68), Royals (1.2)
HR/9: League (8.9), Royals (8.18)
BB/9: League (3.46), Royals (3.45)
K/9: League (9.17), Royals (10.65)

What this tells us is very simple: the stuff of many Royals pitchers doesn't quite match up with the league standard, and should these trends continue, won't play at higher levels. We don't have minor league LD/GB/FB breakdowns for the 2008 season to give us raw data regarding the quality of contact hitters are enjoying off Burlington pitching this season, but I would argue that the peripherals tell us what watching the team in person would confirm. Fringe stuff, combined with a higher hit rate and a home run rate nearly twice the league average, indicate better and harder contact by opponents.

In the case of the higher hit rate, the team's shoddy defense must also take some of the blame. Granted, last night's was the first game I've had the chance to watch the entirety of, but aside from the team's five errors, there were such an inordinate amount of miscellaneous miscues that my hopes for the team sank lower. First of all, I have little tolerance for outfield miscues - watching no fewer than three bobbles on run-scoring plays that literally just needed to be picked up on several bounces was infuriating. The official scorekeeper was certainly a little generous (though I would have made the same call) in neglecting to give the shortstop his third error of the night. And later a routine fly ball was lost in the lights, resulting in a double and an extra base on an error due to - you guessed it - a bobble. Losing a ball in the lights certainly happens, as does any actual physical error, but the volume was astonishing. Were the universal standard for errors less leniant, it's possible the team would have hit double-digits last night.

But the biggest issue with the Burlington Royals is its anemic hitting. The team currently sits at a collective .204/.269/.268; only last night's nine-hit "outburst" helped to finally bring it over the Mendoza line. The Appy League isn't exactly a hitter's haven (.261/.337/.391), as a large share of players are just getting their first experience with wooden bats and tougher pitching. However, this is collectively pretty inexcusable. Here's some perspective.

Three Royals players are getting on base at better than a 30% clip. That's an incredibly low standard; notably impatient Major Leaguers include Wily Mo Pena (career .309) and Jeff Francoeur (.314). Not a single player is hitting above .300 (only one tops .275), and an astounding five regulars fall well short of the Mendoza line. The team has two triples and two home runs on the season. Also, the lineup is striking out in over a quarter (26.1%) of its at bats. It's safe to say that the offense is woefully inept.

Even in batting practice, it doesn't take a trained eye to see that the team cannot hit with authority; the difference between the cage time for Elizabethton and Burlington was noticeable. Few players appear capable of hitting with authority to all parts of the field, and I've seen a couple players in particular who have trouble doing much of anything with pitches on the outer half (weak foul balls with backspin into the opposite foul line's bleachers really shouldn't be commonplace - in batting practice).

I understand that odds are things will pick up a little bit and "balance out" over the course of the season. The Elizabethon games do skew the run differential a bit as the team has actually played four one-run games (dropping all of them), though they came against the non-elite of the league.

Probably the biggest factor at play though is the youth of the team, a stark contrast to last year's club, which featured the second-oldest offense and pitching staff, just behind Bluefield in each category. This year's club features the second-youngest offense to Pulaski (Average age 19.5; league average 20.1) and youngest pitching staff (19.1; 20.4).

Despite the youth, the Royals lack can't-miss prospects, as do many of the league's teams. There's not always a whole lot to glean from these games besides physical projection and adjustments to the minor league lifestyle, wooden bats, and so forth. If you squint, you can see clear tools on the Royals here and there. Outfielder Allen Caldwell has a cannon for an arm, several of the sub-20 pitchers show signs for optimism, and so forth. But there's no Neftali Feliz or Manny Ramirez or Jason Heyward on this team, and odds are that maybe one of them gets a cup of coffee someday.

The league record for fewest wins in a season is 16, held by the 1986 Kingsport Mets. Since then, the Bristol White Sox (1996) and Greeneville Astros (2007) have each come close with 17 wins over a 68-game season. Seeing if the Royals have what it takes to be that terrible is probably going to be more interesting than anything else they pull off over the next several weeks. Maybe third overall draft pick Eric Hosmer can fire agent Scott Boras, sign on with Kansas City, and somehow get sent to this club over the Royals other Rookie affiliate in Idaho Falls.

Meeting the Best GM of the Last Fifteen Years

2008-06-30T03:47:00.001-04:00

Tonight I had the pleasure of meeting former Twins General Manager Terry Ryan at Burlington Athletic Stadium before the night’s scheduled Elizabethton Twins vs. Burlington Royals game was rained out. Ryan served as the Twins General Manager from the 1994-1995 offseason through 2007, during which his team amassed four division titles despite a shoestring budget and almost exclusively building from within. He is best known for selecting LHP Johan Santana, a superstar for the Twins for several years, in the 1999 Rule 5 Draft, despite the draft’s typically poor yield.

Here are a couple other excellent transactions you may have forgotten:

* 11/14/2003 – Traded C A.J. Pierzynski and cash to San Francisco for LHP Francisco Liriano, RHP Joe Nathan, and RHP Boof Bonser – that’s an injury-prone frontline starter, a dominant closer, and a #4/#5 starter all cost-controlled for several years, for an above-average expensive catcher. Possibly one of the most lopsided trades of all-time, and there’s still plenty of time for it to pay dividends to the Twins

* 2/16/98 – Traded 2B Chuck Knoblauch to New York for LHP Eric Milton, RHP Danny Mota, SS Christian Guzman, OF Brian Buchanan, and cash – Knoblauch had two good seasons left in him, but was never the same player in New York, eventually succumbing in part due to his inexplicable throwing issues. Meanwhile, Buchanan was traded straight up for Jason Bartlett, once the team’s starting shortstop, while Milton was dealt for a package including reliable starter Carlos Silva and utility man Nick Punto.

* 12/9/05 – Traded LHP J.C. Romero to Los Angeles (AL) for 2B/SS Alexi Casilla – Romero has continued to admirably serve as a barely useful LOOGY, predictably posting deceptive ERAs and walking six batters per nine innings. Meanwhile, Casilla has been one of the league’s most productive middle infielders while playing semi-regularly at age 23. And you guessed it, he’s cost-controlled for several more years.

The obvious trend shown with these and other moves is that aside from evaluating the trades on a pure performance level, the Twins of the past decade have been excellent at getting both younger and cheaper. On a shoestring budget, this strategy is imperative to the team’s success (and arguably for most teams). While certainly not all prospects pan out and become productive big leaguers, this strategy does not fail if some of the assets involved do. It’s tough to argue with the results even if many of his moves raised eyebrows at the time; Ryan led one of the most efficient and effective baseball operations departments around during his tenure with the Twins. He now serves as a senior adviser to the organization.

Mr. Ryan definitely came across as amiable, and I look forward to hopefully being able to pick his brain for a few minutes after one of the upcoming games this week. Unfortunately, just as I was hearing about Kevin Slowey being a Winthrop alum, I was called for tarp duty. I was fairly amused that he asked me if I was the General Manager of the Royals after introducing myself. Meeting and talking with total strangers is basically uncharted territory for me, but I suppose that it’s something I’ll need to force myself to become comfortable with if I want to truly succeed in this industry. As in any line of work, it’s very likely that it will take hard work, skills, contacts, and a little bit of luck to succeed. There’s no sense in cheating myself in one of the three areas I have control over.

Sorry about the delay regarding all other updates. Life is very hectic at the moment and I spend most of my time off exhausted and/or trying to clean up the house and catch up on errands.

Bill Bavasi axed

2008-06-16T17:46:00.002-04:00

From Rotoworld:

Finally. The team finished 322-395 in four and a half seasons under his watchful eye. We'd list Bavasi's poor decisions, but it'd probably overload the Rotoworld servers. The best indication of his over-spending and poor roster development is that the team currently has the worst record in baseball with a top-10 payroll over $100 million. Vice President/Associate General Manager Lee Pelekoudas will take over as the interim General Manager.

That about says it. Even accounting for hindsight bias, which of the following moves seemed like a good idea? Signing Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Silva, extending Kenji Johjima with Jeff Clement destroying PCL pitching, trading for Erik Bedard despite a pretty poor offense, being overly aggressive with literally every single prospect in the system, less noticeable moves like Rafael Soriano for Miguel Batista, and so on. Mariners fans, if there are any left, should be happy about this. Then again, I'd suspect that Bavasi never truly had full control of this team. Still, they desperately need a new approach with a suddenly aged offense.

Weekly Agenda

2008-06-16T09:32:00.003-04:00

I'm trying this out to see if I can actually stick to it.

MONDAY: Myrtle Beach notes
TUESDAY: Burlington Royals Home Opener
WEDNESDAY: Prospect Profile: Jamie Romak
THURSDAY: Preseason Predictions Review
FRIDAY: A Brief Look at Bud Selig

Romak's piece is dependent on me being able to figure out video editing fairly quickly. If I can't turn the picture vertical and use slow motion (settings I know how to use on my camera but not on the computer), then the video I shot is borderline useless. Oh well. A used camera is the next thing I'll have to look into.

Plans in the works...

2008-06-13T01:22:00.003-04:00

As planned, I did manage to catch a Lynchburg - Myrtle Beach game on my trip down to Jacksonville last night, though it cost me a couple hours of vital sleep. The stadium is pretty cool if not quirky and includes some, um, especially interesting promotions. Though relatively strong attendance for a Wednesday night game pushed me up in the stands a little bit, my weak Canon still zoomed close enough for some possibly useful shots, even if I'd prefer it to be closer for any swing analysis. After butchering Gorkys Hernandez's first at bat, I managed to get some pretty steady video of Myrtle Beach's Hernandez, Eric Campbell, Brandon Hicks, and Tyler Flowers, as well as Lynchburg's Jamie Romak, a former Braves farmhand himself.

And can we talk about Gorkys quickly? I fully endorse this guy as a potentially special player. Gorkys made a beautiful diving catch in LCF to prevent what looked like a possible triple with runners on, and came very close to repeating the feat on an even lower liner in RCF later on. The latter was possibly more impressive despite him trapping the ball, as the hit had very little hangtime, and Gorkys came out of nowhere to get near it. His stance is a bit peculiar to me, as he begins with his bat not just far back, but twisted a bit behind his head. His left forearm is nearly vertical, with his right forearm raised behind his head at about a 45 degree angle. I'm not sure how else to describe this, but you'll see when I post the media next week (I can't upload the media on to my laptop for whatever reason). To me, it looked like it was a swing that made generating power especially difficult, but Gorkys' skill set suits gap power.

Unfortunately, the first day (the "light" day) of this conference, the agenda of which is confidential, consisted of a 16-hour day with breaks only for brief meals. Getting to multiple Jacksonville games will not be possible, but I think I'm going to stick around here for the Sunday game at noon to catch the loaded Huntsville offense. Hopefully I can get a decent seat and bring back some stills and videos of Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, Angel Salome, Michael Brantley, and all the rest. Keep in mind I'm far from a scouting veteran, so obviously don't take my opinions as cold hard fact (as with any individual scouting opinion, truthfully). However, I think this will be a great way to improve the ways in which I look for projection in players and perhaps provide some useful and/or unique information in the process. I'm looking forward to doing this for Appy League players, when I can get very close to home plate at any time.

A Rhetorical Question

2008-06-06T18:23:00.001-04:00

Well, not really a question, but Rotoworld pointed out something pretty bizarre regarding Coco Crisp's 7-game suspension for charging the mound in last night's win over the Rays.

MLB suspended outfielder Coco Crisp seven games for his role in the altercation during Thursday's game against the Rays.

Richie Sexson charged the mound after not even being hit by a pitch and threw his helmet at the pitcher. He got five games. Crisp got hit by a pitch that was obviously intentional and then charged the mound about with neither helmet not bat in hand. It makes absolutely no sense that his suspension was longer than Sexson's. Seven games isn't an unreasonable number, but just a little bit of consistency from the league office would be nice.

Live Blogging the 2008 Draft

2008-06-05T11:22:00.008-04:00

Well, I've got my Zeppelin compilation on, a comfortable chair, plenty of snack food, and a rather light day of work that affords me the opportunity to satisfy my baseball fetish without making up an excuse to leave before 2pm. I love draft day, though I once again won't get to see ESPN's "coverage".

11:25 AM - The St. Petersburg Times reports that the Rays are going to go with SS Tim Beckham for the first overall selection of the draft. I think this is absolutely the right decision if true. Beckham's upside and five-tool profile have earned him mentions in the same breath as the Upton brothers.

Despite a need for catching (is there an organization in MLB that DOESN'T need catching? Besides Texas, I guess), the Rays apparently prefer him to Florida State catcher Buster Posey, who's been getting mentions as a candidate for the #1 pick. Posey is a nice player, but doesn't have superstar potential. And as many of us know, the MLB draft is heavily favored towards a "best talent available" approach.

The average college player needs 2-3 years in the minor leagues; high schoolers need 3-4. There are plenty of exceptions, but the point is that organizational need can dramatically shift between the time a pick is made and that draft pick makes his MLB debut. Additionally, superstar talent is no longer available via free agency - it only takes a cursory glance at players like Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria being locked up within months (or days!) of their debuts to find evidence of this. This makes potential star talent quite a valuable draft commodity as without developing its own, it's becoming increasingly difficult for a team to build a star core at the MLB level.

1:58 PM - Assuming the report on Beckham at #1 is true, I think we see Pedro Alvarez go to the Pirates at #2. Rumors of ridiculous bonus demands for Posey ($12m ballpark) are circulating, and it's easy to picture him falling several spots should they be true. Most material I've read predicts 1B Eric Hosmer going to Kansas City at #3 overall. If so, the Royals will once again pick a big HS bat, hopefully for my sake electing not to skip him straight to low-A Burlington, Iowa.

2:17 PM - Rays take Beckham. I'm watching the coverage on MLB.com without sound. Did they seriously run out the clock for no other reason than to build drama? Everyone at the table was just sitting there.

2:25 PM - The Pirates get a special player, to borrow a phrase from Peter Gammons, in Pedro Alvarez at #2. Watching him hit in a couple Team USA games last year and a couple of Vandy games this year was a pleasure. Kid can mash. Remember he was the consensus #1 for quite some time until he had an injury to deal with early this season.

2:40 PM - Yawn, LHP Brian Matusz at 4 to the Orioles, C Buster Posey at 5 to the Giants...no shockers yet. Let's get to the Twins or Dodgers for something interesting and off-the-wall already.

3:41 PM - Something came up at work so I need to cut this a little short for now, but the Astros pick is really one of the dumbest moves I've seen in a while. Should we really expect anything else from this organization, though?

Draft Day (can we say D-Day?) '08

2008-06-05T06:54:00.002-04:00

The big day is here, and I just wanted to let you know that I'll be doing some live commentary on the draft between 2-6p. I'm very interested to see how it plays out, though I wish I were a little more up-to-date on the class than I have been the past couple of weeks. I think that's what my lunch break will be dedicated to. I'm not going to go pick by pick, but will offer a few thoughts here and there - mainly for time reasons but also because I will need to multitask a couple of other projects.

One week until my minor league roadtrip. I'm getting excited.

Also, is there any better recent example of a win-win trade than Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton?

2008 Carl Pavano Contest Update

2008-06-02T10:11:00.000-04:00

Background: Named in honor of the ever-frustrating victim of the injury bug himself, the Carl Pavano contest is basically a fun little gimmick I came up with in which participants try to accumulate the greatest number of days on the disabled list among a roster comprised of a full starting lineup, three starting pitchers, and three relief pitchers. Players beginning the season on the DL (e.g. a pitcher going under the knife in March) are ineligible, so it’s really a game of weighing injury history, age, and so forth.

Scoring was inclusive of the date the player came off the disabled list if it followed the game, as in the cases of Cliff Floyd and Keith Foulke. Otherwise, if a player or pitcher were activated in time for the day’s game, the activation date was not included. If a player was DLed retroactively, the retroactive date was used for compiling days on the disabled list.

If this sounds like all kinds of fun – and trust me, it is – I will be holding this contest annually. Because what’s more fun than dogging injury-prone players?

Scoreboard:
Ryan – 229 DL days
MC – 155 DL days
Zo0 – 82 DL days

The Breakdown:

Ryan’s picks
C Gregg Zaun (TOR) – 6 days (DLed 5/27 – present)
1B Nick Johnson (WAS) – 18 days (DLed 5/15 – present)
SS Cristian Guzman (WAS) – 0 days
3B Troy Glaus (STL) – 0 days
OF Milton Bradley (TEX) – 0 days
OF Mark Kotsay (ATL) – 3 days (DLed 5/30 – present)
OF Gary Sheffield (DET) – 6 days (DLed 5/27 – present)
DH Cliff Floyd (TB) – 33 days (DLed 4/7 – 5/9)

SP Rich Harden (OAK) – 38 days (DLed 4/3 – 5/10)
SP Pedro Martinez (NYM) – 61 days (DLed 4/2 – present)
SP Mike Hampton (ATL) – 64 days (DLed 3/30 – present)
RP Kerry Wood (CHC) – 0 days
RP Mark Lowe (SEA) – 0 days
RP Scott Proctor (LAD) – 0 days

MC’s picks
C Jason Kendall (MIL) – 0 days
1B Carlos Delgado (NYM) – 0 days
2B Ray Durham (SF) – 0 days
3B Hank Blalock (TEX) – 37 days (DLed 4/26 – present)
SS Bobby Crosby (OAK) – 0 days
LF Garret Anderson (LAA) – 0 days
CF Mark Kotsay (ATL) – 3 days (DLed 5/30 – present)
RF Matt Stairs (TOR) – 0 days
DH Frank Thomas (OAK) – 5 days (DLed 5/28 – present)

SP Mike Hampton (ATL) – 64 days (DLed 3/30 – present)
SP Cliff Lee (CLE) – 0 days
SP Franklin Morales (COL) – 0 days
RP Keith Foulke (OAK) - 29 days (DLed 4/11 – 5/9)
RP Jason Isringhausen (STL) – 17 days (DLed 5/16 – present)
RP Kerry Wood (CHC) – 0 days

Zoo’s picks
C Chris Coste (PHI) – 17 days (DLed 3/23 – 4/8)
1B Jason Giambi (NYY) – 0 days
2B Luis Castillo (NYM) – 0 days
3B Eric Chavez (OAK) - Ineligible
SS Rafael Furcal (LAD) – 27 days (DLed 5/6 – present)
LF Corey Patterson (CIN) – 0 days
CF Ken Griffey Jr. (CIN) – 0 days
RF J.D. Drew (BOS) – 0 days
DH Aubrey Huff (BAL) – 0 days

SP Paul Byrd (CLE) – 0 days
SP Randy Johnson (ARI) - Ineligible
SP Johnny Cueto (CIN) – 0 days
RP Joba Chamberlain (NYY) – 0 days
RP Brad Lidge (PHI) - Ineligible
RP Joe Borowski (CLE) – 38 days (DLed 4/15 – 5/22)

Jay Bruce is Still Terrible

2008-05-28T15:23:00.003-04:00

Reds GM Walt Jocketty saves Dusty Baker from himself by optioning "Major League-calibur" center fielder Corey Patterson to AAA and calling up 1B Andy Phillips just minutes after my earlier post. Jay Bruce afficionados everywhere applaud the brilliance!

Jay Bruce is Terrible

2008-05-28T11:11:00.005-04:00

Jay Bruce is pretty terrible.

Wow, what a night, and I'm so glad I got to see his debut vs. Pittsburgh on Sportsouth. Though enthused about virtually all facets of his game, here I am somewhat concerned that his struggles with plate discipline and K rate at AAA (and throughout his minor league career, really) might make for a tough initial transition to MLB. And aside from his perfect 3-3 debut, Jay goes ahead and draws a pair of walks off of a pitcher who's usually pretty stingy about giving away free bases in Ian Snell (he walked seven this game, however). Cincinnati, say hello to Mr. Franchise.

I still do think a slump is bound to occur at some point, and really, any 21-year-old who doesn't experience at least a minor setback in the majors is pretty exceptional. My concern is that if and when Bruce strings together two or three hitless games in a row, manager Dusty Baker may resort to his binky, Corey Patterson. We saw in April that Scott Hatteberg stole an inordinate amount of playing time from rookie Joey Votto at first base before Votto eventually forced Hatteberg to be designated for assignment. The same fate might be coming for Patterson, who has been even worse than usual at .200/.240/.352, good for a whopping OPS+ of 52.

One more area of concern regarding the Reds lies in the right arm of talented 22-year-old Johnny Cueto. Cueto is on pace for well over 180 IP despite a handful of short and/or inefficient starts thus far. The issue isn't that he's being abused in terms of innings; ~180 would keep him on pace for the standard 20 IP/yr bump (138 in 2006, 161.1 in 2007). Back-to-back starts of irresponsible pitch counts have caught my eye; 114 on 5/21, 119 last night on 5/27. He did have 5 days rest in between starts, but that's a lot of pitches for a young arm.

I'm personally a believer in the idea that not all pitches are alike; throwing 115 pitches in a four-hit shutout is much different than throwing 105 in a 4 2/3 start with six walks and a handful of runs. Anecdotally, it makes sense that constant pressure is going to put more stress on the arm than cruising through games; pitchers like Curt Schilling have talked (or in his case written) extensively about tough innings being by far the most stressful on the arm.

This is why I'm particularly alarmed by these two consecutive starts. Not only did Cueto throw 114 and 119 pitches in these games, but he only went five innings in each, allowing 10 and 12 baserunners, respectively. Though I didn't see his 5/21 start at Los Angeles, he was constantly in trouble last night, and by extension pitching in high-stress situations throughout. This situation bears watching over the next few starts to see if Dusty is beginning a trend of riding Cueto to try to get five or six innings out of him, despite his current inefficient game. Maybe I should give Baker a little slack here given how overworked his bullpen was following an 18-inning loss to the San Diego on Sunday. Still, the Reds realistically aren't in the playoff chase, and aside from Bruce, young pitchers like Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Homer Bailey are their future. Being irresponsible with any of them is unwise.

Nonetheless, don't fear, Reds fans. In between the exciting young talent breaking in this year and a very good farm system, the future is bright.

Published...

2008-05-24T13:43:00.002-04:00

Well, sort of. I had to write a half-page for the Burlington Royals program. It's pretty difficult to write about a team that's been around for a year and turns its roster over almost completely every single year. Not to mention roughly a player a year will actually make the majors.

I'm really happy that the copy I submitted used "It's impossible to know" to kick off two consecutive paragraphs. Whoops.

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The Burlington Royals inaugural season in 2007 proved to be a successful one, as their 38-30 (.559) record propelled them to a second-place finish in the Appalachian League’s East Division. But since a new season is likely to bring to North Carolina a team of almost entirely new faces, it’s only appropriate to catch up with the players we all grew accustomed to cheering on last season.

Many of last year’s Royals now find themselves in another Burlington, playing for the Burlington Bees of Iowa, a team in the Midwest League. Fan-favorite Wilson Tucker and 2007 team home run leader Kyle Martin both were fixtures in the starting lineup at the time of publication. David Lough, who batted .337 for the Royals in 2007, has regularly seen time all over the outfield. In addition, pitchers Alex Caldera, Joe Augustine, and Anthony Bradley were all off to blistering starts in 2008, striking out over a batter per inning each.

Still, many of last year’s Royals have already moved on to other endeavors. Even slugging first baseman Jake Lane has reportedly left baseball to pursue a career in bull riding. The odds of a Burlington player one day making a name for himself in the Major Leagues are long. But things break just right for an especially talented athlete every now and again.

After all, it was just ten years ago that a young C.C. Sabathia was firing fastballs at nearly a hundred miles per hour towards the backstop at Burlington Athletic Stadium. In 1998 at Burlington, fans watched a tall and husky first-round draft pick pitch the first five games of his professional career, which included a 13-strikeout performance – including 8 in a row – over 5 2/3 innings.

Sabathia has continued his winning ways, but now he fools Major League hitters rather than those of the Appalachian League. Earning three All-Star Game selections and the 2007 American League Cy Young Award (among other honors), C.C. shows no signs of letting up any time soon. Sabathia has won over 100 games and struck out 1,200 batters, and at age 27, he has plenty left in the tank.

It’s hard to foresee which of the 2008 Burlington Royals will be lucky enough to even reach the Major Leagues. Most players will move on from baseball long before getting a taste of the show, and a select few will receive an extended look in the big leagues. However, every once in a while, a Burlington alum will break through and - like Sabathia - achieve notoriety on the biggest stage in baseball.

But it’s impossible to know who the next Burlington great will be. And that’s part of the fun in watching.

The Itinerary

2008-05-22T23:04:00.003-04:00

I could not have had better luck. Jacksonville happens to be hosting the Brewers AA affiliate, Huntsville, during the aforementioned Wednesday through Sunday stretch. Yes, THAT Brewers affiliate, which boasts Matt LaPorta and Mat Gamel, as well as some second-tier hitting prospects like Angel Salome, Cole Gillespie, and Michael Brantley. In other words, there will be a TON to see in this series, and with luck I'll be able to catch more than 1 game throughout the week. Here are the remaining Wednesday and Sunday game options and what I'm leaning towards getting out to:

Wednesday

Myrtle Beach - 7:05p vs. Lynchburg (Pittsburgh). Notable visiting prospects: Daniel Moskos, Jamie Romak

Savannah - 7:05p vs. Columbus (Tampa Bay). Notable visiting prospects: Glenn Gibson

Sunday

Charleston - 4:05p vs Savannah (New York (N)). Notable visiting prospects: already discussed

Greenville - 4:00p vs. Augusta (San Francisco). Notable visiting prospects: already discussed

Myrtle Beach - 6:05p vs Salem (Houston). Notable visiting prospects: Koby Clemens, Jordan Parraz (but only if you squint really, really hard)

The Gameplan

Not a lot to choose from Wednesday. I'll go with my city and prospects preference and make a run out to Myrtle Beach to see them play Lynchburg. This will get me to Jacksonville around 3 or 4 in the morning. Alright.

I'm dead set on seeing that Augusta - Greenville matchup on Sunday, and will only reconsider if I'm unable to see any of the Huntsville - Jacksonville series during the week. Another consideration is that I may not be able to get out of Jacksonville in time to make it to Greenville by 4pm. If that's the case, I will settle for Charleston - Savannah at 4:05p, which is a nice consolation prize.

Ideally, Myrtle Beach and Greenville home games with two or three Jacksonville games in between await. This would get me a look at Clayton Kershaw, Angel Villalona, Matt Laporta, and Gorkys Hernandez. Not a bad haul of top-50 prospects. The flock of other ancillary prospects is just icing, too. I'll be sure to have some information and photos of these players and these stadiums I know nothing about.

Minor League Road Trip

2008-05-22T01:14:00.004-04:00

Well, it looks like life is finally a little less hectic, and aside from work and having to move next week, I'll have plenty of time to resume regular writing. The big news, if you can call it that, is that I was selected to be part of the NACA South Selection Committee. Basically, I'll be helping to decide which comedians, poets, and musicians are featured in spotlight performances during a weekend conference our school's student programming board attends annually. As such, I get an all-expenses paid trip to Jacksonville, Florida, where we will meet to go over all the materials submitted and make our decisions. I'll be driving to Florida on Wednesday and returning Sunday, and I'd be lying if I said that catching a minor league game on either end of the trip wasn't at least a little bit of a motivating factor in deciding whether or not to apply for the opportunity.

I'm unsure whether or not the itinerary will allow me to catch a Jacksonville Suns (AA Dodgers) game or two on the nights of the actual meeting days, but I did compile a list of a few teams for the trip down or back. We'll see if their home schedules cooperate.

Charlotte (AAA – International League – White Sox)
Lots of semi-interesting guys, but certainly no top prospects left in the White Sox system after the Nick Swisher trade. I'd be interested in seeing Chris Getz, Jack Egbert, Lance Broadway, Josh Fields, and to a lesser extent Dewon Day, Charlie Haeger, and Jerry Owens. Still, I'm probably going to pass if I can because Charlotte is relatively close, the players are relatively uninteresting, and I'd be driving until mid-morning if I made this my stop on the way down.

  Kannapolis (LoA – South Atlantic League – White Sox)
At first glance, literally nothing here except for outfielder Jose Martinez, and I saw plenty of him in the Appy League last season. Pass.

Augusta (LoA – South Atlantic League – Giants) 
I'm salivating at the opportunity to see mega-prospect Angel Villalona, and I could get lucky with a Madison Bumgarner start as well. Nick Noonan jumps out as another player I'd be interested in taking a look at. This is a decent contender, but it would also be an hour or two out of the way.

  Charleston (LoA – South Atlantic League – Yankees) 
Another serious contender. Austin Romine, Jesus Montero, and Brad Suttle are all hitters I'd love to see live. Zach McAllister and Dellin Betances are a couple of interesting arms I see on the roster. Charleston is also a nice near-midpoint on my trip.

  Savannah (LoA – South Atlantic League – Mets) 
I'm not familiar with anyone on this roster offhand except for Francisco Pena, but then again, the Mets system isn't exactly spectacular. I'm sure there's at least another player or two here worth seeing. Bonus points for being directly en route.

  Greenville (LoA – South Atlantic League – Red Sox)
Another town that's an hour or two out of the way, but gets big points for being a Red Sox affiliate. For that reason, I recognize more names here than I would on other Sally league teams. Josh Reddick, Oscar Tejada, Ryan Kalish, and Che-Hsuan Lin are all legitimate moderate to high-upside prospects, and Kris Negron, Yamaico Navarro, and Bryce Cox (if he's still there) are all worth watching as well. Felix Doubront, after falling off the radar last season, is off to a tremendous start.

  Myrtle Beach (HiA – Carolina League – Braves)
Two very interesting players in Gorkys Hernandez and Brandon Hicks, and not a whole lot else. Out of the way, but an otherwise awesome city. It might be a better idea to find an excuse to return here in July or so, with baseball as a side order.

  Daytona (HiA – Florida State League – Cubs) 
Name recognition fails me here; I only see pitcher Alessandro Maestri. Oh, and Ryan Harvey. Is this his sixth year in Daytona, or what? You'd think they'd at least let him become a AA lifer. An extra two-hour round trip. I likely will pass on this one.

  Jacksonville (AA – Southern League – Dodgers) 
A 40% chance of either godlike pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw or solid potential #2/#3 James McDonald. Ivan DeJesus is young for this league and off to a very good start. Being able to make it to a game or two after our meetings - thus allowing me to see two of the other above teams - would be prime.

Odds are that with some background research I'd find a couple more somewhat noteworthy players on each roster, but right now I'm torn. Home schedules are going to have to make my decision for me. I'm very excited about seeing some parks I otherwise would have no reason to trek out to, however. Recommendations are welcomed, and I'll award bonus points for nice stadiums even if the roster is unimpressive.

A New Must-Read

2008-05-12T11:31:00.002-04:00

Former Dodgers General Manager and current Padres Special Assistant (Baseball Operations) Paul DePodesta has joined the blogging world. It looks like an ongoing Q&A and may prove to be very interesting in that as many of us know, two-way communication between those behind the baseball ops. doors and the rest of the world isn't incredibly prolific. Check it out here.

How to Lose a Game in 10 Seconds

2008-05-09T01:46:00.001-04:00

In between a six-day NC/SC Junior College Baseball Tournament and the semester closing in just a few days, I am absolutely swamped at the moment. I apologize for the lack of updates, but please stay patient, as I will resume posting regularly next week.

Tonight I watched an underdog that had been up 7-2 with the bases loaded and none out in the top of the 7th blow a late lead, leading to an 8-8 game with one out and a runner on third in the bottom of the ninth.

This nifty diagram may have come in handy for the pitcher before the coach called for an intentional walk to set up the double play ball:

Antitrust Exemption in MLB

2008-04-24T02:42:00.003-04:00

It's looking more and more like free time is going to be at a premium over the next couple of weeks through final exams. Rather than refrain from posting for three weeks like when I was writing the infamous AL East preview, I will likely be focusing on some less time-intensive posts and/or pieces I've already written in up for other projects in the past.

Here's an overview of antitrust exemption in Major League Baseball that I hurriedly wrote at the end of the Fall 2007 semester for a class focused on legal aspects of sport. I think this topic needs more than the stated maximum of six pages to say anything incredibly profound, but I think the paper did an adequate job of introducing what the effect that the exemption has had in owner-player labor relations over the course of the game's history. Enjoy.

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Major League Baseball's Antitrust Exemption:
Impact on Contemporary Labor Relations and Marketplace Economics

By Ryan Swanzey

The relationship between the owners and players of Major League Baseball (MLB) is a constantly evolving one that has seen decades of hostile relations (Belth 1). Over the past several decades, America’s national pastime has seen threats of striking by the Player’s Association (MLBPA), several relevant Supreme Court cases over labor negotiations, and only recently, the seemingly exponential growth of player salaries. These oft-tumultuous years can all be traced to the continued existence of MLB’s antitrust law exemption. This paper will examine why baseball is partially exempt from corporate antitrust laws and how this has helped shaped contemporary marketplace economics and labor relations within the sport.

The Sherman Act, sponsored by Senator John Sherman and passed by Congress in 1890, is legislation that was designed to protect against monopolies and other forms of restricted trade (Times, 1998). Though some argue that the protections provided by the act have weakened recently, the act has become the “foundation on which Federal antitrust law has been built” over the course of the 20th century (Labaton, 2006; Times, 1998). In fact, Section 3 of the Sherman Act specifically states that “Every contract…in restraint of trade or commerce in any territory of the United States…is declared illegal. Every person who shall make any such contract…shall be deemed guilty of a felony” (Department of Justice, 2007). By extension, one might assume that MLB would operate under the principles of this act, as a corporate entity with complex restrictions on interstate trading and little competition. However, a series of Supreme Court decisions established and maintained for decades a precedent that MLB is a corporate entity by which federal law did not apply, based on defining MLB activity as that of “public exhibitions” rather than “interstate commerce” (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 1922). Despite this, in finding the NFL to be subject to antitrust law in Radovich v. NFL (1957), the Supreme Court referenced the basis of MLB’s exemption as “unreasonable, illogical, and inconsistent” (Zimbalist, 2006). Nonetheless, MLB’s exemption on the basis of league governance and the need to act in the league’s best interests has mostly stood the test of time (Zimbalist, 2006).

This series of significant court decisions has had a number of implications upon the salary structure and player-owner labor relations inherent within MLB. Baseball may be played by the athletes, but for the better part of a century owners held virtually all of the power in negotiating a player’s worth to his team. More specifically, a statement in every player’s contract called the reserve clause gave owners the power to “renew (each) contract for the period of one year on the same terms” (CNN, 2000). In other words, players had little leverage in any negotiations. Their choices were to either accept a team’s offer, or refuse to play, losing out on all earnings potential. As a result, salaries remained depressed for decades while league revenues multiplied, as owners had little motivation to share the wealth generated by the entertainment value of their players when they had no reason or contractual obligation to give the players anything but the same one-year contract annually, with a slim raise occasionally added (CNN, 2000). Free agency in baseball is a relatively new development, so even when ownership catered to a star player holding out for a better offer, the salary increase would be determined arbitrarily, and not by free market forces (Zimbalist, 2006).

It’s pretty clear that this market, especially given its unbalanced labor policies, would ordinarily be in violation of the Sherman Act. The first challenge to MLB’s policies was brought forth by a disbanded baseball league that argued MLB was acting as a monopoly in either buying out the teams in its league or otherwise influencing them to disband (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 1922). The decision made by the Supreme Court in this case had groundbreaking implications for the future of labor relations in MLB.

In Federal Baseball Club v. National League (1922), the court ruled in favor of MLB, and in doing so established a precedent that would shelter baseball for the next half century from revisiting the league’s salary structure and service time policies. Essentially, it was found that baseball did not constitute interstate commerce, and thus could not be subject to the Sherman Antitrust Act (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 1922). Baseball was found to comprise a series of “public exhibitions” that “requires constantly repeated traveling” due to the location of the teams (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 1922). However, in his court opinion statement, Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes argued that with regards to MLB competition, “transport is a mere incident, not the essential thing. The exhibition, although made for money, would not be called trade or commerce in the commonly accepted use of the words” (Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 1922). As a result, since MLB was providing fans a service and not engaging in commerce per the country’s highest court, it would enjoy several unique powers unavailable to the governing bodies of other major US sports, many of which are still prevalent today (Belth, 2001). A series of legal battles over the next several decades would eventually weaken and repeal certain aspects of the reserve clause, yet MLB remains the only sport partially exempt from antitrust law today (Belth, 2001).

As MLB continued to grow during the years following the Federal Baseball Club v National League (1922) decision, a number of players who felt the reserve clause was unfair brought their cases to court. Two heard by the Supreme Court that stand out are Toolson v. New York Yankees (1953) and Flood v. Kuhn (1972). Players contended that MLB was acting as a monopoly and in turn exploiting its players via the reserve clause. In both cases, the Supreme Court readily acknowledged that MLB did in fact constitute interstate commerce, but ruled against the plaintiff on the grounds that Congress had not passed legislation over the previous decades to end antitrust law exemption (Toolson v. New York Yankees, 1953; Flood v. Kuhn, 1972). In essence, the Court ruled on stare decisis alone and diverted responsibility to Congress, even though they acknowledged that the pretense (MLB contests as public exhibitions and not interstate commerce) on which the precedent had been established was false. Lisa Pike Masteralexis, department head of sport management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, notes that outcomes in cases such as these “encouraged baseball players to use labor relations rather than antitrust law to resolve their disputes over the reserve clause” (Cotten, 2007). This shift towards arbitration as a means of resolving contract disputes would play a very significant role in the advent of free agency in MLB and a steep increase in power and leverage among players (Zimbalist, 2006).

In 1968, the MLBPA made a huge stride towards an open market for player services when as part of the league’s first collective bargaining agreement (CBA), players were empowered to bring disputes before the league commissioner via arbitration (Pappas, 2002). Two years later, during the negotiation of the second CBA, the MLBPA won the right to an impartial arbitration panel regarding said disputes (Pappas, 2002). These gains had incredible implications for labor relations in the sport, as there was previously no alternative to litigation in resolving contract disputes. Additionally, even with the advent of the commissioner arbitrating said disputes, a hearing chaired by an employee of the league (and by extension the owners) would likely be biased (Pappas, 2002). As a result, one can see the MLBPA’s potentially substantial gain presented by its newfound right to an impartial arbitrator, as the opportunity to challenge the reserve clause to those without a vested interest in maintaining the status quo had suddenly become available.

As previously mentioned, the reserve clause stipulated that owners could perpetually renew player contracts on an annual basis. However, players began to challenge owners on their interpretation of the clause as effectively giving owners control over a player’s rights for the duration of his playing career. Instead, they argued that the renewal term expired after one year, and once this occurred, a club would lose the rights to its respective players (Pappas, 2002). In other words, if a player refused to sign a contract and instead elected to play unsigned during this one year renewal term, the MLBPA contended that the club no longer would have any control over the player following the season (Pappas, 2002). In 1975, Andy Messersmith, an all-star pitcher coming off a fantastic season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, sought a clause in his contract preventing him from being traded, commonly referred to as a “no-trade clause” (CNN, 2000). Dave McNally, a pitcher who had retired from baseball during the 1975 season, also refused a contract offered by the Montreal Expos (CNN, 2000). The pitchers argued that their rights were no longer owned by their respective teams, and arbitrator Peter Seitz made a landmark ruling that opened the flood gates for free agency in awarding the players the right to sign with other teams (Pappas, 2002). In this way, a competitive market for player services was born, and one of the fundamental aspects of MLB’s structure that resulted from its antitrust exemption had been substantially weakened.

After decades of a player development and salary structure that favored owners, the tables were quickly turning. In 1975, at the time of the Seitz decision, the minimum salary for MLB players was $16,000, and its average salary was $44,676 (CNN, 2000). The effects of a free agency structure eventually jointly agreed upon between the MLBPA and the owners would quickly be evidenced as salaries began to exponentially grow. It took just three years for the average salary to double, and after an additional eight years, the league minimum salary had quadrupled while the average salary increased tenfold in the aftermath of the Seitz decision (CNN, 2000). Today, the average salary is nearly $3,000,000, the game’s highest paid player earns an average of $27,500,000 a season before incentives clauses, and the cost of attendance for a family of four exceeds $150 (CBS Sports, 2007; Team Marketing Report, 2007). The far-reaching effects of free agency in transforming the sport into big business are readily apparent.

76 years after the ruling in Federal Baseball Club v. National League (1922) and nearly half a century after the Supreme Court first indicated that it was the responsibility of Congress to legislate in order to change the nature of MLB’s operation, the Curt Flood Act was passed in 1998. According to Baseball Prospectus writer Alex Belth, the legislation “partially repealed the antitrust exemption to give [the MLBPA] the same rights as the unions in the other major sports” (Belth, 2001). Congress declined to fully repeal the exemption on the basis that MLB truly did require some special treatment for it to function as a league. This is why minor league farm systems still exist, as well as exclusive league-wide broadcasting contracts, franchise relocation, and the “plenary powers of the commissioner”, among others (Belth, 2001, Zimbalist 2006).

The Curt Flood Act showed that once again, the most heated issue concerning MLB governance has proven to be labor relations; their conduct, the interpretation of the reserve clause, and the bargaining power and freedom of each party were responsible for some of the largest litigation faced by MLB over its first century of operation. Aside from further empowering the MLBPA, very little changed with the passing of the act. After a shaky history of labor stoppages, a closed market for player services, and a number of highly publicized lawsuits, the coming years appear to be brighter for player-owner relations, though still dubious given the history between the two parties. However, while today’s free market player economy brings a whole new set of potential disadvantages to the sport, it certainly appears to be a better foundation for civil labor negotiations than that of the first half of the century, which alienated and angered players. MLB’s antitrust exemption stemmed from a case involving a competing professional baseball league, but the case’s decision most prominently affected labor relations and in turn shaped the sport as we see it today.

References

Belth, A. (November 26, 2001). Ending Baseball’s Antitrust Exemption: What Would It Mean?. Retrieved September 3, 2007 from http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1286

* CBS Sportsline. MLB Salaries. Retrieved November 27, 2007 from http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/salaries/avgsalaries

* CNN: Silver anniversary: Baseball salaries have skyrocketed since 1975 ruling. Retrieved October 21, 2007 from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/news/2000/12/22/free_agency_ap/

Cotton, D., & Wolohan, R. (2007). Law for Recreation and Sport Managers. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt Publishing Company.

* Department of Justice. Antitrust Division Manual. Retrieved October 21, 2007 from http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/foia/divisionmanual/ch2.htm

Federal Baseball Club v. National League, 259 U.S. 200 (1922). Retrieved October 14, 2007, from LexisNexis database.

Flood v. Kuhn, 407 U.S. 258 (1972). Retrieved October 14, 2007, from LexisNexis database.

Labaton, S. (May 5, 2006). New View of Antitrust Law: See No Evil, Hear No Evil. Retrieved October 21, 2007 from http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/05/business/05legal.html?_r=1&n=Top/Referen ce/Times%20Topics/People/L/Labaton,%20Stephen&oref=slogin

* New York Times. (1998, October). Microsoft on Trial; What the Sherman Act Actually Says. P. 9. Retrieved October 21, 2007, from LexisNexis database.

Pappas, D. (September 8, 2002). A contentious history: Baseball’s labor fights. Retrieved November 27, 2007 from http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=1427632&type

* Team Marketing Report. Major League Baseball: 2006. Retrieved November 27, 2007 from http://www.teammarketing.com/fci.cfm

Toolson v. New York Yankees, 346 U.S. 356 (1953). Retrieved October 14, 2007, from LexisNexis database.

Zimbalist, A. (2006). In the Best Interests of Baseball? The Revolutionary Reign of Bud Selig. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

* No author(s) and/or publish date given. Listed alphabetically by in-text reference (e.g. Times, 1998) with as much relevant information as possible.

New Poll - Feedback Appreciated

2008-04-21T16:54:00.005-04:00

I just added a new poll (yes, I will figure out how to archive past polls eventually) regarding interactivity on this blog.

One of my goals in creating this blog and writing with some regularity is to eventually build a small community of users to discuss relevant issues in professional and amateur baseball. While I'm still enjoying writing very much, I must admit it is a lot more fun when it doesn't feel like I'm talking at people rather than with them. One can never know "everything" about baseball (which is part of what makes it so much fun to follow), but even if one could, I know I wouldn't be close. That's a big part of my motivation in trying to further this goal; I learn a lot from having my arguments refuted and being forced to better analyze a question before trying to answer it.

I realize that this is a pretty low-profile project, and I can't have more than a few dozen semi-regular readers. Still, one of my goals for the summer is to take steps to both increase the number of readers as well as to make this blog more of a two-way resource.

To give you an idea of some of the projects I have in mind, I plan to continue my interview series (thanks again, David) with hopeful interviews with Appalachian league prospects, coaches, and staffers as I spend another summer working for the Burlington Royals of the same league. I will definitely be beginning a series of multimedia additions, such as photos of top prospects, as well as possibly video clips. I would like to make attempts at breaking down the mechanics of primarily pitchers, but also hitters in the league as well. This project may also entail making trips to nearby minor league affiliates, such as Charlotte, Asheville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Durham. Finally, I would like to begin occasional comprehensive studies, though I am still in the brainstorming stage as to ideas I would like to investigate.

Overall, I promise that soon enough, I will no longer only write short pieces usually reacting to events or transactions in MLB. There will still be pieces such as these, but I want to expand into generating unique content and investigating new topics. While this will inevitably lead to more interest from some of the other baseball communities of which I am a part, it will also help me to learn more about areas of the game I haven't necessarily paid as much attention to as I would like.

You can select multiple options in the poll, but I'd also greatly appreciate any more specific suggestions or feedback on this post. I won't be upset with honesty if it's something I can build on.

A Rhetorical Question

2008-04-21T11:26:00.002-04:00

I apologize for the lack of recent updates. Aside from sleeping, I spent the last four days solely working the Div. III USA South Baseball and Softball tournaments, both of which were won by Christopher Newport University of Newport News, Virginia. I'm exhausted after basically working non-stop through my weekend, but trying out public address for the first time was pretty cool, and there are worse things to do for part-time work than watching a bunch of baseball games. I'll have a real update coming this week, but there was absolutely no way I could devote an hour or two to thinking of something intelligent to say during these past few days. Sticking with the baseball/softball theme...

Why are baseball players required to wear hats, but softball players don't wear hats at all? Best response (or only response) gets to pick a player off to a surprising quick start for me to give an opinion on.

Violence sucks...a lot. 04-16-07

2008-04-16T16:29:00.003-04:00

Decisions That Make My Head Hurt

2008-04-16T10:33:00.004-04:00

I think I would make a pretty bad manager. Clearly, as anyone in the game will tell you, managing personalities and giving players breathers over the course of a long season is as important (if not moreso) than in-game tactical decisions. Playing some Diamond Mind or studying run probability tables doesn’t suddenly qualify you to be the next Joe Torre. But there are some decisions that defy both common sense and the numbers; conventional baseball wisdom and statistical probability. And given that a couple occurred during games my club baseball team played this weekend, they have been eating at me for a couple days, and I really need to vent a little bit.

Situation: bases loaded, up 9-8, 1 out, 6th inning (7 inning game), low contact/moderate power hitter

The decision was made to pinch run for our backup catcher, the designated hitter. He was on first base at the time and is one of our best hitters statistically (and who am I kidding, anecdotally as well). Let’s start with a quick introduction to run expectancy and the minimal gain provided by a pinch runner in this situation.

Run expectancy is what it sounds like; the number of runs that you can statistically expect to score with a given combination of runners on base and outs. The data is accumulated by parsing through play-by-play data from a large enough sample (read: one to several MLB seasons worth of games) in order to calculate reliable averages. The obvious caveat is that sub-collegiate baseball – club level – has a different run scoring environment than MLB, and likely a much higher one given the quality (or lack thereof) of pitching. But the overarching point of bringing run expectancy up is to show the minimal effect of a pinch runner when weighed against the potential downsides of a substitution. There are situations, like in a one-run game in the ninth with your iron-footed sixth hitter on first, when pinch-running your speedy 5th outfielder is a near no-brainer. There are many others where the risk you take on via pinch-running far outweighs the supposed benefits.

Baseball Prospectus’ run expectancy table (number of baserunners on left column, number of outs on top row) indicates to us that in 2007, a runner on first with nobody out scored 92.59% of the time on average. With the bases loaded and one out, teams scored an average of 1.61 runs per occurrence. In other words, with multiple runners on base and one or no outs in an inning, it takes some pretty poor hitting in the clutch to strand everyone.

Now let’s return to our club baseball example. We can generally accept that the level of play at the collegiate club baseball level is lower than that of MLB and thus more likely to result in higher-scoring games. This is anecdotally correct judging by how often teams score in the double-digits in our games, which is fairly uncommon (though obviously not unheard of) in MLB. We also know that even if it were somehow as difficult to score runs in club baseball as in MLB, we could still expect our low contact/mediocre power hitter to plate 1.61 of our runners on base in this situation. Common sense and an understanding of this sabermetric principle tell us that we should expect to score 2+ runs on average in this situation. And we have to make only six outs on defense to win, while we still have five outs and a very favorable offensive situation to pad our one-run lead.

The stated justification for pinch-running was to stay out of a double play, with slower runners both at the plate and on first base. Here’s where we take off our thick-rimmed stat geek glasses and apply our common baseball sense. Down by one late in the game, the defense is almost certainly going home with a grounder. Whereas earlier in the game it makes sense to play in or even at the corners with the second baseman and shortstop setting up for two up the middle, the defense is very likely to trade a possible inning-ending double play for the guaranteed run-preventing out at home (with the possibility of a home-to-first DP as well). In fact, the infield gave this away before any substitution was made, as all infielders were moving towards the grass. What does this mean? We pinch ran for a player because he might not be able to beat out a double play that the defense was not going to attempt to turn!

Keep in mind that the added value of a stolen base in terms of run scoring is relatively low. In the 2007 MLB season, a stolen base was worth at most a quarter of a run. I calculated this by subtracting the run expectancy of a runner on 1st / 0 out situation from a runner on 2nd / 0 out situation - in other words, what one would expect to gain on average by successfully taking second base (1.189 - .925 = .264 runs). However, one caveat is that this only applies to a 0 out situation – a steal of 2nd is less valuable with 1 out (.186 runs) or 2 outs (.118 runs), as there are fewer remaining opportunities to drive the run home. Additionally, this quick calculation accounts only for successful steals. By contrast, one can figure the cost of recording an out on an attempted steal by subtracting the runner on 1st / 0 out situation (.925) from the resulting run expectancy situation from an out on the basepaths – bases empty / 1 out (.283 runs). This makes the cost of a stolen base, at the MLB level, worth roughly .642 runs. This cost is nearly three times as high as the expected value of a successful stolen base that we came up with. This is a very brief explanation of why many well-versed in sabermetrics feel that the stolen base is an overutilized tool; in order to result in a net gain over the course of the season, basestealers must be successful roughly 75% of the time or more, which is a relatively high percentage.

Again, these values are not applicable to the level of baseball we’re examining with this article. But the concept itself is. We’ve established that a stolen base doesn’t necessarily add as much to an offense’s bottom line as it is sometimes given credit for, but that it certainly has its vital applications, and can provide a net benefit as long as excessive outs are avoided. With this in mind, try considering how the effect of a pinch runner – who is not attempting to steal a base because he doesn’t have one open in front of him – might alter the expected run scoring in a given situation. Odds are that the payoff is quite a bit lower.

Nonetheless, the decision was made. Here are all the potential risks associated with pinch running for your backup catcher in this situation:

* A one-run game may go into extra innings, leaving us without a hitter who gets on base 55% of the time.
* Our baserunner reached on a beautifully placed attempted sacrifice bunt on which no outs were recorded. Few of our players excel with secondary offensive skills such as bunting and pushing the ball to the opposite side when appropriate. These skills are generally going to be more relied upon later on in tight or tied ballgames.
* None of our emergency catchers have caught at all this season, in practice or at games. We’re left without a backup catcher as a result of the substitution.

You tell me if those risks are worth the at best very minimal upgrade of a pinch runner with no opportunity to steal a base and little benefit in the way of avoiding a double play given the defensive alignment.

Our hitter roped a two-run single to left-center after the pinch runner entered the game. Our pinch runner advanced to third, but only because no fielder was covering the base since the third baseman was serving as a cut-off man for the throw home. Given that he had plenty of time to hesitate before making the run from second to third, I’m guessing that this is an extra base our backup catcher would have been able to take pretty easily.

But the biggest problem I have with this decision is the positive outcome. When people are so sure they are making a logical decision, the positive outcome can and usually does reinforce the belief that the decision was logical, regardless of whether a causal relationship exists or not between the choice and the result. More often than not, a pinch runner in this situation isn’t going to run into an out on the bases, but that doesn’t mean that it makes the risk associated with a borderline pointless substitution worthwhile. And when a move made for the sake of making a move finally backfires – because eventually one will – it simply means the team can’t always win in spite of poor decisions.

One of the reasons I admire Terry Francona as a manager is because of how little he actually does. Seriously. He calls for steals almost exclusively from his high-rate stealers like Ellsbury and Crisp, and once in a blue moon you’ll see a sacrifice bunt. But he understands and is vocal about the fact that the bulk of his job is to put his players in the best position to win. That means resting them when appropriate, resisting the temptation to ride his best pitchers too hard, remaining confident in players who have hit a rough patch, and dealing with a difficult media market. If I ever for some reason am given the task of managing a ballclub, please remind me of this post and tell me to stay the hell away from using tactics simply for the sake of looking managerial.

Around the Horn with David Laurila

2008-04-11T16:43:00.007-04:00

David Laurila is the man behind Baseball Prospectus’ weekly Prospectus Q&A column, and has been featured in other publications such as Baseball America, the Boston Globe, and Red Sox Magazine. The revised paperback edition of his book Interviews From Red Sox Nation was released on March 31st. Red Sox diehards and baseball fans alike will want to check out this must-read, which features over 40 new interviews and 101 in total. Readers will enjoy a new perspective with stories from sabermetric godfather and Red Sox Senior Baseball Operations Advisor Bill James, 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia, and future Hall of Famer Curt Schilling. The book also provides wonderful insights into Red Sox both past and present, from Johnny Pesky and Rico Petrocelli to former General Manager Dan Duquette and hard-throwing closer Jonathan Papelbon. I recently had the opportunity to ask David about how his interview series began, his role as a weekly Baseball Prospectus columnist, and his unrivaled radio skills.

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Ryan Swanzey: How and when did you first begin your series of player interviews?

David Laurila: The first interviews were for a website called redsoxnation.net, in early 2004. The original interview was with a pitching prospect named Beau Vaughan, whom the Red Sox had drafted one round before Jonathan Papelbon the previous year. Needless to say, Vaughan hasn't had nearly as much success as Papelbon, although he's still in the organization, pitching for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs. I probably owe my writing career to Vaughan, as his wit resulted in a pretty entertaining first interview. Had the interview been a dud, it is quite possible that it would have been my last. Of course, that would mean I'd be working a "real job" now, and making a lot more money. So in that sense, Vaughan deserves both credit and blame.

RS: Were there ever times you questioned whether it was wise to devote so much time to interviewing as an independent correspondent? What convinced you to stick with it?

DL: Oh yeah. The vast majority of my early interviews were unpaid contributions to a non-profit website, so I questioned myself a lot. They were fun to do, but they were essentially a time-consuming hobby, and I have a family and a mortgage. Even after I began contributing on a semi-regular basis to Baseball America and a few other publications, there was always doubt that I could make a go of this. It's no great secret that writing doesn't pay especially well. But baseball and writing are passions for me, so I keep going.

RS: One thing I've always admired about your work is that while interviews with the big names like Jonathan Papelbon, Bill James, and Curt Schilling are always great reads, you don't shy away from finding an entertaining story in a minor leaguer who might never sniff a 40-man roster. Why do you interview the scrubs as well as the stars?

DL: Because they're exactly that; they're entertaining. At least I hope they are. One of the most enjoyable interviews I've done was with a journeyman minor league pitcher named Tim Kester. Along with having played in exotic minor league outposts like Osceola and Quad City, Tim also played in Italy, Venezuela and Taiwan, chasing his dream of making it to the big leagues. Tim had tales of Italian George Steinbrenners, bumbling Chinese interpreters, and Venezuelan fans who throw beer in the air when their teams do well. I love stories like that. My new book includes plenty of big names, but it also includes interviews with two former Red Sox players who are really no better known than Kester. Most fans haven't heard of Dana Kiecker and John Trautwein, but they're very much a part of Red Sox history and are great stories.

RS: What is your role as a contributor at Baseball Prospectus? How long has your work been featured there?

DL: I first contributed to BP in December 2006 -- an interview with Pirates infielder Freddy Sanchez. Those were followed by interviews with Craig Breslow, Bill James, Clay Buchholz and a few others, and a few months later the Prospectus Q&A column became a regular feature, running every Sunday. The Q&As cover a wide range, as I interview people throughout the game of baseball, including players, managers, coaches, general managers, scouting directors, and more. It's basically the same idea as my book, with the difference being that the book is all Red Sox and my BP column covers the whole game. That's my primary responsibility at BP, although I recently did a few interviews for Baseball Prospectus Radio. Those were primarily in spring training, and included guys like Gary Sheffield, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Cecil Cooper. BP Radio is a podcast, so anyone who wants to hear how bad I am at doing radio -- and I am bad at doing radio -- can check them out.

RS: Fairly or not, Baseball Prospectus has a reputation for being a sort of "stat geek" haven. Were you at all surprised by their interest in your work, given that you're more focused on giving readers a personal and behind-the-scenes perspective on baseball?

DL: Yes and no. BP is unquestionably cutting edge when it comes to statistical analysis and projection, but the scope is wider than that. While some of the best sabermetric forward thinkers you'll find anywhere write for BP, there are also people like myself, and Pirates beat writer John Perrotto, who contribute our own brand of expertise. Well, in my case "expertise" might not be the right word, but you get the idea. Anyway, while I certainly can't speak for my editors, I think BP wants to be more than just a destination for stat geeks and baseball insiders, and given the range of material we provide, I think we're doing a good job of that.

RS: What interviews can we look forward to in the coming weeks over at BP?

DL: I'm always careful responding to that question, because I've learned that things don't always go as planned. I can say that I recently interviewed Roger Abrams, who is a law professor at Northeastern University and has been a baseball salary arbitrator since 1986. Roger explains how the process works and talks about some of the interesting things that happen during an arbitration hearing. Beyond that, now that the season is underway I'll be at various ballparks, major league and minor league, chasing down interviews with players.

RS: We've got to hear your playoff picks. Who wins it all?

DL: My division picks would be Boston, Cleveland, Seattle (yeah, yeah; I know), Atlanta, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers. My wild cards are the Tigers and Mets. Who wins it all? Well, it's pretty well proven that once you get into the postseason anything can happen -- it's basically a crap shoot. With a gun to my head, I'll say that the Indians will win the World Series. Hopefully the Red Sox will prove me wrong.
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The revised paperback edition of David Laurila’s book Interviews From Red Sox Nation is available from Maple Street Press. You can read his weekly Prospectus Q&A column at Baseball Prospectus. David’s aforementioned BP Radio interviews are available here: 1 2 3

New Poll - Underrated Teams

2008-04-10T14:52:00.005-04:00

We're (at most) 10 games into the regular season. If any mediocre team goes 7-3 in August, no one really takes notice. However, we're in April. And people take notice when these nice stretches occur early on.

So how seriously do we take these? Most people can understand the concept of a small sample and its lack of predicative value. However, perhaps certain players are playing above expectations, and these .500+ teams can sustain their success. Which team, if any, do you see as significantly overplaying its generally expected level of success?

Baltimore - Losing Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada hurts, but this team has some interesting arms in the pen, a legitimately strong starter in Jeremy Guthrie, and an offense that so far has received a lot of help from a revitalized Aubrey Huff and newcomer Luke Scott.

Kansas City - GM Dayton Moore has pieced together a pretty solid pitching staff, and Alex Gordon and Billy Butler both have breakout potential, all while being surrounded by useful supplementary players like David DeJesus and Mark Teahen.

Oakland - Rich Harden and Bobby Crosby are healthy, and youngsters Daric Barton and Kurt Suzuki as well as surprise contributions from all over the pitching staff provide hope for Oakland.

Florida - Any team losing Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera in one offseason shouldn't be competitive, but this team can pack some punch. A weak pitching staff and defense are causes for concern, however.

St. Louis - The best team in baseball? Huh? With only two starters who were projected to be in the rotation as recently as a couple of months ago, the Cardinals have beaten up on teams thanks to productive outfielders Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, and Brian Barton assisting Albert Pujols with his usual one-man act. Sustained success seems unlikely, but the staff's work thus far has been very admirable in light of how far down the depth chart the team has already reached.

My thought is that Kansas City is the only potential competitor here (as a fringe Wild Card team, if everything breaks right and one of the AL Central teams outright collapse), and I wouldn't even bet much on that outcome. However, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Blogging an Elon Prospect

2008-04-09T10:47:00.002-04:00

Because I work in the Elon Athletics Department, I’ve had the opportunity to see and hear about our school’s top baseball prospect, right-handed pitcher Steven Hensley, for much of this spring. Again working in the press box during his regular Friday start last week, I figured it made sense to take some notes on what I saw and throw them up on the blog. Hensley drew Georgia Southern University, but unfortunately struggled to his least impressive start of the season.

Hensley was ranked the 97th best draft-eligible collegiate prospect back in February by Baseball America, and has since taken home back-to-back Southern Conference Pitcher of the Month honors for his work this year, striking out over a batter an inning and pairing a solid low-90s fastball with numerous quality offspeed offerings. At this rate, there is little that can derail Steven from going early enough in the 2008 MLB draft in June to make this year his last at Elon. I counted six scouts at Friday’s game, but that was only because of the radar guns; there were several others with bags and notebooks charting the game, but I have no idea if they were affiliated with teams or not. I identified one scout from the Reds, but no one else was donning any apparel. It was pretty cool seeing this much buzz, with a number of the scouts turning to each other after virtually every pitch for the first couple of innings.

Hensley got into trouble early, and was hurt by some shoddy defense and a couple of bloop hits. But as the game progressed, the contact became more and more legitimate, capped by slugger Chris Shehan’s homer to right center in the 6th inning. However, his stuff looked solid – I strained to see the radar gun readings (about 15-20 feet in front of me) as often as possible, and his fastball was regularly sitting 91-92, touching 94 at least twice with some late cutting action. His curveball regularly broke in the mid-70s with a changeup sometimes reaching as low as the high-60s on the gun, helping him to effectively mix both speed and location. And most importantly, despite the five earned runs and eight hits, Hensley maintained his usually strong peripherals with seven strikeouts to just one walk in the outing.

Now let me give some background as to why Friday’s conditions weren’t exactly favorable. This game was actually moved up to a 3:00 start due to another poor weather forecast after several straight days of moderate to heavy rain. With a slick field, temperatures in the low-40s, and strong winds that constantly fluxed between (for example) blowing straight in and left-to-right, the elements weren’t exactly in favor of the day’s pitchers. Additionally, though I admit I’m not very familiar with Georgia Southern’s team, I’m told their offense is pretty strong, and Shehan especially has simply been teeing off this year (I believe I read his slugging percentage topped .900?!).

All things considered, the outing was pretty good outside of the rocky four-run 2nd inning. A one-out error by third baseman Bennett Davis sparked a rally comprised of a base hit, HBP, walk, base hit, and double in the gap – two well-struck balls turned into four runs. Hensley got a huge lift when a passed ball struck Elon’s brick wall backstop squarely to bounce straight back to Dallas Tarleton, who picked Shehan off third for the second out of the inning. All in all, the numbers weren’t the prettiest, but the peripherals and conditions tell us that this mediocre outing isn’t something to read into too heavily.

I’ll be working again during Hensley’s scheduled Friday start, so hopefully he bounces back in the ERA column and I can give you all a quick update.

Your 2008 Sandlot Rookies of the Year

2008-04-09T10:43:00.002-04:00

The readers have spoken, and the Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome runs away with the NL award, taking 8 of 9 votes. The AL voting was widely dispersed, with Rays third baseman Evan Longoria and Yankees' righty Joba Chamberlain each receiving three votes. Because I voted in each poll, we'll give the AL award to Longoria. He'll need to be promoted soon in order for it to happen in reality, but he does have a legitimate chance once he arrives.

A Rhetorical Question

2008-04-05T17:52:00.003-04:00

Find the logic in this back-and-forth that I overheard while in the press box for yesterday's Georgia Southern - Elon baseball game:

Radio Announcer #1: Elon center fielder Chris Dove is 20 for 26 in stolen base attempts and has five triples this year. Soandso, what do you think is a better indicator of speed, triples or stolen bases?

Radio Announcer #2: Well, Ryan, I'd say the triple, because it shows that you have some power to drive the ball, but that you also have the speed to leg it out.

(Loose translation: What shows more speed, a triple or a stolen base? A triple, because it shows power and speed.)

My Carl Pavano Picks

2008-04-05T10:20:00.004-04:00

For the details, click here. The summary is that, excluding players on the DL to begin the season, the competition is to create a roster that will accumulate the most DL days during the 2008 season. I made this list last Sunday, and am posting it as promised.
My entry is below, with brief comments:

C Gregg Zaun (TOR) - Catchers in their late 30s don't have an especially great track record. This relates more to performance, but I'm crossing my fingers for something here.
1B Nick Johnson (WAS) - This one is too easy. Johnson is a perennial all-star talent who can't stay healthy for a full-season, much less half of one.
2B Ray Durham (SF) - Old man river.
SS Cristian Guzman (WAS) - I'm not thrilled about this choice; Omar Vizquel is the obvious pick here, but he began the season on the DL.
3B Troy Glaus (STL) - Moving to the NL doesn't suddenly make you less injury prone.
OF Milton Bradley (TEX) - Nick Johnson, outfield version.
OF Mark Kotsay (ATL) - Though he may end up cut first.
OF Gary Sheffield (DET) - Another year older, but he'll usually be used at DH, which might hurt my chances here.
DH Cliff Floyd (TB) - Too easy. Itemize his DL trips and you have a piece of paper longer than most grocery lists.

SP Rich Harden (OAK) - Nick Johnson, pitcher version.
SP Pedro Martinez (NYM) - Rotator cuff surgery after years of major shoulder issues. Remember when Red Sox fans were calling for GM Theo Epstein's head after he let Pedro walk following the 2004 season?
SP Mike Hampton (ATL) - Has not made 30 starts since 2003, but what's more telling is the type of injury causing setbacks recently (muscle strains, seemingly unrelated injuries, etc.). I'm willing to put money on Hampton failing to eclipse 100 innings this year despite being penciled into a rotation with little AAA depth to threaten him.
RP Kerry Wood (CHC) - Too easy. Perennially hurt after a brilliant start to his career.
RP Mark Lowe (SEA) - Major elbow surgery following cartilage issues isn't an especially good harbinger for the future, and he is bound to be pushed too hard at some point this season.
RP Scott Proctor (LAD) - Threw an incredible 83 games in relief in both 2006 and 2007 (102.1 IP in 2006, 86.1 IP in 2007). Reunited with culprit Joe Torre in Los Angeles, Proctor's shoulder might be in serious jeopardy.

So far so good, though I'm hoping leaving Bonderman off despite my hunch of future arm problems doesn't come back to bite me. I'm still looking for entries, so add your picks here (though you guys have already seen some of the players hitting the DL).

Handicapping the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year Race

2008-04-04T13:21:00.008-04:00

Unlike the AL, the NL features over a dozen players with at least a remote shot at the Rookie of the Year award, due to either guaranteed playing time, upside, or both. However, while the field is very formidable, I see one player establishing himself as the leader of the pack early on and never looking back.

My Pick

OF Kosuke Fukudome - CHC

Aside from having one of the most fun names in the game, Fukudome offers a blend of fantastic plate discipline, some power, and strong defense and arm that makes him a key asset to the Cubs immediately in 2008. More importantly to his Rookie of the Year chances, Fukudome isn't much of a rookie at all. Fukudome is, of course, a 30-year-old with plenty of Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) experience in Japan, generally considered somewhere between our equivalent of AAA and MLB. The adjustment time he needs to become an above-average regular will likely be minimal, if existent at all. This is vital, as a hot start cementing himself as a productive player in the minds of the media early on can help him achieve front-runner status. He of course already generated a ton of hype following a big 4-year $48 million contract with a big market team in December. All he has to do is not flop, and the award should be his. While a few stubborn sports writers will refuse to vote for a 30-year-old rookie out of principle, it certainly didn't hurt Kaz Sasaki in 2000 or Ichiro in 2001.

Other Favorites

RHP Johnny Cueto – CIN

Johnny Cueto is a hell of a pitching prospect with one strike against him: his size. This is really the only reason I can think of as to why Cueto was so under the radar after a spectacular age-20 full-season debut, during which he struck out 143 and walked just 38 in 138 innings, all while doing a great job of missing bats. Or why some prospectors have him at the back-end of a top-50 list despite a season during which he maintained excellent peripherals including a K/9 over 9 and vaulted to AAA as a 21-year-old, where he posted a 2/21 BB/K in 22 late summer innings. With a mid-90s fastball, a great slider, and useful changeup, his arsenal matches his dominance. As a roughly 5’ 11” 175 lb. pitcher (depends on your source), I’m assuming his frame is what is holding him back from being grouped with the top pitchers in the minor leagues. Cueto was impressive enough in March to leapfrog Homer Bailey into a rotation spot, and should be watched closely this year. Pitching in Great American Ball Park is no easy task, but if there’s anyone up for the challenge, I would pick Cueto. Hopefully Dusty Baker is a little more careful with Cueto’s pitch counts after his abuse of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood’s young arms bordered on criminal. Honestly, I am more confident in Cueto than any pitching prospect closer to MLB than Clayton Kershaw, and I think he is the only realistic potential threat to Fukudome’s award. (EDITOR’S NOTE: The Cueto write-up was written in full on Tuesday before his MLB debut on Thursday. The results? Seven one-hit innings and ten strikeouts later (no walks), the country is quickly learning who Johnny is.)

Remote Possibilities

3B/OF Chase Headley - SD

Prior to 2007, Chase Headley was seen as an average prospect who, while likely to develop into a big leaguer, was probably looking at a future as Joe Randa. This all changed when Chase broke out with a .330/.437/.580 line for San Antonio of the Texas League, socking 63 extra base hits and walking 74 times to accompany the increased strikeout rate that came with his newly-found power stroke (114 Ks). With his middling power exploding and his defense improving, Headley became a no-brainer top-50 prospect and topped San Diego's farm. Moved to LF despite incumbent 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff's awful defense, Headley continued to mash in Spring Training, but was optioned to AAA Portland to begin the season in order to continue developing in the outfield. However, with such a weak defender blocking him at 3B, and "household names" like Paul McAnulty and Jody Gerut holding down LF with centerfielder Jim Edmonds out, Headley should be back in MLB in no time should he continue to hit. He has little left to prove in the minors, and with his 24th birthday coming soon in May, he needs to be given a spot soon. I expect to see him in San Diego to stay by the end of April, which could give him enough time to put together a case for the award.

C Geovany Soto - CHC

Last spring, Geovany Soto was quickly becoming an organizational player for the Cubs. After two consecutive campaigns in AAA Iowa, the 24-year-old Geovany had progressed little with the bat and looked at best like a guy who might catch on as a backup catcher for a few seasons. A little better than average but nothing spectacular on defense, that was no sure thing, either. Six months later, Soto was widely regarded as a top-50 prospect after leading the minors with a .652 slugging percentage last year. Soto batted .353/.424/.652 for Iowa, clubbing 26 homers and putting together a nifty 1.100 OPS in 60 plate appearances during his September MLB debut. Entering the year, Soto is the Cubs everyday starter and faces little internal threat, with Henry Blanco next in line for playing time. This, along with playing for a large market division favorite, make him a worthy Rookie of the Year candidate. Nonetheless, expectations for Soto absolutely need to be tempered a bit. Looking strictly at his statistical track record, 2007 sticks out as an aberration, a season during which he was lucky enough to try for the third time to hit in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (PCL). Don't get me wrong; Soto deserves a lot of credit for his excellent season last year, and recent production is more relevant than older data. However, there's really no reason to believe that given the circumstances, Soto is a shoe-in to be a very productive big leaguer based solely on his 2007 season.

C J.R. Towles - HOU

I have a soft spot for Towles after drafting him late in my keeper league draft in December 2006 and watching him turn into a top-100 prospect. The 24-year-old Towles has been cleared to start in Houston this season with veteran Brad Ausmus sticking around as a part-time backstop and full-time mentor. Towles doesn’t necessarily sport any plus tools, but lacks major weaknesses as well. This, of course, makes gives him the potential to develop into a very valuable player, as catchers who are assets both as hitters and game-callers are an increasingly rare commodity. Towles has a lot of job security – especially if and when reality strikes and Houston falls out of the playoff hunt – but he is another player for whom expectations should probably be tempered. Prior to 2007, Towles was handled conservatively in playing both his age-21 and age-22 seasons at Lexington of the South Atlantic League (SAL). Though injuries played a role here (finger surgery 2004, knee tendinitis 2006), he was still a 23-year-old who had yet to clear A-ball at the beginning of last year. J.R. did relatively little to help himself out either, with a .200/.339/.278 line at high-A Salem through almost two months. Injuries ahead of him pushed Towles to AA despite his lackluster performance, where he exploded on his way to finishing the year in Houston. The issue with Towles is that most of his hype is directly related to his two-month hot streak in AA. I feel pretty good about him long-term, but don’t at all be shocked if he takes his lumps for a little bit (as with any rookie). J.R. cooled tremendously in AAA Round Rock before finishing nicely in a very small sample with Houston. I doubt J.R. has much of a prayer at taking home the award, but he is an interesting prospect in the sense that some overrate his immediate impact while others are completely unaware of his existence. He is one to watch and one of the few bright spots on the Astros’ horizon.

Deep Sleepers
2B Matt Antonelli - SD
OF Jay Bruce - CIN
* 2B/SS Ronny Cedeno - CHC
* OF Elijah Dukes - WAS
*SS Yunel Escobar – ATL
OF Dexter Fowler - COL
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez - COL
RHP Jair Jurrjens - ATL
SS Chin-Lung Hu - LAD
RHP Hiroki Kuroda - LAD
1B/OF Matt LaPorta - MIL
3B Andy LaRoche - LAD
LHP Matt Maloney – CIN
* LHP Sean Marshall - CHC
OF Fernando Martinez - NYM
OF Andrew McCutchen - PIT
OF Cameron Maybin - FLA
* OF Lastings Milledge – WAS
LHP Andrew Miller - FLA
LHP Franklin Morales - COL
LHP Manny Parra – MIL
* OF Felix Pie - CHC
1B/OF Steven Pearce - PIT
OF Colby Rasmus – STL
* 3B Mark Reynolds - AZ
OF Nate Schierholtz – SF
2B/3B Ian Stewart – COL
* OF Justin Upton - AZ
RHP Edinson Volquez - CIN
1B Joey Votto – CIN
RHP Casey Weathers - COL

* Rookie eligibility expired, but monitor closely anyways

To preempt a comment I'm sure I'll get - I don't believe Bruce has a remote shot at the award because I seriously doubt you see him in MLB in the first half, and I believe his plate discipline issues will lead to some early speed bumps.

This is opposed to Headley, who has a clearer path to a promotion and a skill set more likely to help make his transition easier, but a much lower career upside.

The Official 2008 Carl Pavano Contest

2008-03-31T03:57:00.002-04:00

I've got a challenge for all of you. I want you to put together a team of players that will log the most days on the DL this year. The only catch is that you must pick players who, as of their team's respective opening days, were on the active roster. So you can't pick Curt Schilling since he started the year on the DL, but you can pick Elijah Dukes, who played the first five innings of Washington's first game before leaving with a sore hamstring.

This will be judged based on the # of games the player missed due to the DL trip - not the total number of calendar days. Pick one of each of the following, and leave a comment with your roster. I absolutely expect full participation in this!

C
1B
2B
3B
SS
LF
CF
RF
DH

SP
SP
SP
RP
RP
RP

I have my list written down, and will post it by the end of this week. But someone better beat me at my own brilliant idea.

Bold Predictions

2008-03-29T01:26:00.005-04:00

This is a non-exhaustive list that I hope at least partially makes up for me writing about only four of thirty MLB teams for a preseason preview. Please add your own in comments, and/or agree/disagree with what I’ve listed here. The only real standard or theme here is that all items listed are in my opinion more likely to occur than most are giving them credit for. After the season it’ll be interesting to review what went right and wrong with regards to the list.

* Oakland finishes in 2nd place in the AL West ahead of Seattle – Analysts are overlooking Seattle’s luck in their record last year, overrating the impact of Erik Bedard versus the replacement cost of George Sherrill and Adam Jones, and ignoring that Seattle sports a notoriously average lineup. Oakland may yet win only seventy games this year, but despite rebuilding, this team has a number of players with untapped upside who could help propel them to a surprising .500 season.

* Kansas City leapfrogs Chicago and possibly Minnesota in the AL Central. Though sporting John Bale and Brett Tomko in the rotation isn’t necessarily a great way to exemplify it, Dayton Moore has quietly built a rarity in Kansas City – a respectable pitching staff. The addition of Jose Guillen, as well as a full season of Billy Butler and potential improvements from a host of younger players including Alex Gordon may mean the beginning of the end of the Royals’ futility.

* Houston loses, and loses badly. GM Ed Wade has foolishly tried to make this team into a contender, making a number of moves that figure to prove to be of little net gain while apparently being oblivious to the obvious lack of pitching that his trades have only exacerbated. Outside of Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jose Valverde, there is little on this pitching staff that belongs on a major league roster.

* Luke Scott establishes himself as a regular in Baltimore after finally being given the starting job he probably could have handled each of the last two seasons. With 550 plate appearances, Scott slugs 30 homers to go with solid on-base skills, and is dealt in the offseason to aid the rebuilding in Baltimore.

* Oakland starter Dana Eveland doesn’t look back after winning the 5th starter job out of Spring Training, going 13-10 with a 4.35 ERA and a K/9 around 7. He cements himself as mid-rotation starter who has less to worry about with the upcoming onslaught of excellent Oakland pitching hitting the upper minors.

* Following several disappointing seasons and elbow soreness last fall, Jeremy Bonderman goes under the knife in 2008.

* Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta starts strong, wins more playing time in his job share with incumbent Yorvit Torrealba, and is picked as a reserve to the All-Star game behind elected starter Russ Martin.

* Tampa Bay wins 84 games in 2008.

* Edinson Volquez has a surprisingly successful season as the Reds’ 4th starter, building on his encouraging command improvements from the second half of 2007.

* Worst team in the AL: Baltimore

* Worst team in the NL: San Francisco

* Top five farm systems at year’s end (in no particular order): Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta, Washington, Oakland

* Worst five farm systems at year’s end (in no particular order): Houston, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Florida, Cleveland/Toronto/Seattle/LAA? I’m having a tough time with a fifth team.

Handicapping the 2008 AL Rookie of the Year Race

2008-03-28T10:01:00.009-04:00

As the only respondent to my mini-contest a couple posts back, my fantasy league division rival mckeeno has requested a write up on the AL and NL Rookie of the Year contenders. I’m not very confident in predicting the ROY winners, for several reasons.

(1) Some prospects burst right out of the gate in their first couple of months in the big leagues (e.g. Ryan Braun), while others struggle before eventually adjusting (e.g. Alex Gordon). This doesn’t necessarily impact the player’s projected long term value; there’s simply a huge adjustment to be made in jumping from AA/AAA pitching to the bigs.

(2) It almost always takes 5+ months in MLB to have a realistic shot at the award. Braun’s 2007 season, during which he won the award with 34 homers and a .324/.370/.634 line despite not debuting until May 25th, is an outlier. A prospect basically has to come up and light the world on fire for a contending team if he is going to have much of a prayer of winning the award when he’s still on the farm come May. This seriously damages top prospect Evan Longoria’s chances for 2008, in my opinion.

(3) Media market and playoff contention helps a player’s chances immensely. This is true of any of the major awards, of course.

(4) Seriously, if anyone had picked Dustin Pedroia as the 2007 AL ROY, they would have been ridiculed (especially at the end of April when Dustin was hitting an anemic .182).

My Pick

RHP Joba Chamberlain – NYY

Joba’s beginning the season as Mariano Rivera’s primary setup man in the Bronx, with an eye towards moving him into the rotation midseason (which I suggested in my novel…I mean, division preview). My thought is that the Yankees are probably going to be hesitant to do this given that their pen beyond those two relief aces is full of question marks. At this point, Joba’s looking at racking up close to a hundred innings out of the pen for a playoff team with a boatload of national attention. He’s also certainly shown himself to be dominant in a relief role, to the point that many voters will be able to overlook that he isn’t going to be racking up an especially relevant number of saves or wins. Fun fact: Joba’s 2007 ERA+ was 1192. A repeat of those cartoon numbers is too optimistic, but he should be an outstanding fireman nonetheless.

Other Favorites

1B Daric Barton – OAK

As if their coup of now-traded ace Dan Haren and setup man Kiko Calero wasn’t enough, the final piece the A’s received from St. Louis for Mark Mulder in December 2004 will become Oakland’s full-time first baseman in 2008. The 22-year-old is a pure hitter, but his skills aren’t well-suited to make an impression with voters and/or the average fan. Barton is the rare first baseman without true home run power; he is a contact hitter with exceptional plate discipline (career 313/266 BB/K ratio in 1988 minor league PA). Barton has displayed doubles power in the past – often a strong indicator of future home run power – and has been consistently young for his leagues. Additionally, Baseball America reports that he has added some loft to his swing in recent years. All of this evidence indicates that Barton may yet develop 20-25 HR power, which would still leave him as somewhat of an anomaly at 1B. Nonetheless, he profiles as a very valuable player, and that he is guaranteed a starting job all year alone makes him a legitimate ROY contender.

RHP Clay Buchholz – BOS

I’ve been a huge Buchholz fan for quite some time and expect good things from him in 2008. My main reservations with him are that after a no-hitter in just his 2nd MLB start, expectations are likely set at such a high level that he’s almost sure to disappoint many. Remember that starting in the AL East is no walk in the park, and an ERA below 4.00 is an achievement. Additionally, the Sox will undoubtedly limit his innings down the stretch in order to preserve him for the postseason and to attempt to manage the long-term health of his arm. Based on these observations, let’s imagine an entirely hypothetical yet fairly probable season from Clay: 12-9, 4.30 ERA, 155 IP, and a K/9 around 7-8. That’s a fantastic season for a 23-year-old pitcher, but it’s also probably not going to convince voters that he is a deserving ROY. Clay needs an exceptional year in at least somewhat limited time to turn heads. A second no-hitter would help, too.

3B Evan Longoria – TB

Longoria is a consensus top 3 prospect, and rightfully so. That tends to happen when you’re an excellent hitter with an above-average glove, and excellent production to match glowing scouting reports. Longoria lacks any major weaknesses, but is slated to return to AAA Durham for his age-22 season (which means I might be able to see him a couple of times – sweet). Some combination of Eric Hinske, Willy Aybar, and Joel Guzman isn’t an especially strong barrier to overcome, but Longoria is likely stuck in AAA until June in order to ensure that 2008 will not burn a year of the Rays control over Longoria before his arbitration years expire (which would then be following the 2014 season). Though this is a wise strategy given the unlikelihood of a playoff berth for Tampa Bay this year, it was probably foolish to announce he had any shot at the 3B job out of Spring Training, given that he did everything and then some to prove he was by far the best third baseman in camp this March. Longoria could burst onto the scene on June 1st with a huge four months, but it’s rather unlikely. That’s ok, because Evan has lots and lots of All-Star appearances ahead of him.

Remote Possibilities

OF Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS

Ellsbury is one of the most overhyped players of recent memory after bursting onto the scene with a fantastic performance in the playoffs and a stolen base that won a free Taco Bell taco for millions. Don’t get me wrong, I think a speedy contact hitter with doubles power and great defense from a middle diamond position is a fantastic asset. But if everything goes right for Jacoby, he’s Johnny Damon in his prime. That’s a great player to have at your disposal, but he’s no superstar, which is the impression I am usually getting from the rabid Red Sox fan base. A crucial factor here is that Ellsbury’s skill set mirrors that of incumbent Coco Crisp, who is just four years older than Jacoby. The Sox aren’t going to bench Coco after a stellar defensive season that made him one of the more valuable centerfielders in baseball, and they certainly aren’t going to run the risk of a job split damaging Ellsbury’s development or Coco’s ego (or trade value). Until further notice, Jacoby is headed for AAA Pawtucket, and he doesn’t have the bat to catch up to the field midseason. I suppose he could swipe 60 bases and make a few Willie Mays-esque catches, but it probably isn’t happening. On a more scientific note, Ellsbury’s stellar stretch run last year was greatly aided by a .388 BABIP that far eclipsed anything he had ever done in the minors. While speedy slap hitters are generally going to have a better average on contact due to their skill set (see Suzuki, Ichiro), this is almost certainly unsustainable, which should help his bat come back to Earth again when he does get a shot this season.

RHP Ian Kennedy – NYY

Kennedy soared through the minors last season, ending the year with three September starts for the big club. Beginning the year as the Yankees’ 5th starter, Kennedy should be a serviceable starter lacking major upside. However, keep in mind that Kennedy has already pushed aside and exceeded expectations (e.g. viewed as a fringe 4th starter pre-2007, mentioned as #3/#4 now), and sports fairly strong command. He is pretty unlikely to put together a great season, but at the same time he should continue to turn some heads and possibly lead the baseball community to once again re-evaluate the long-term potential of this 23-year-old.

2B/OF Alexei Ramirez – CHW

Ramirez really belongs in the deep sleeper category, but his situation will be fascinating to watch in early 2007. After defecting from Cuba, Alexei signed a four-year $4.75 million contract with the White Sox in January. Viewed as a huge long shot to make the roster, Ramirez now appears certain to break camp with the Sox, getting plenty of time at second base and in the outfield as a spot starter. Though his defense is questionable, he’s showed off an advanced bat in camp and has put up some monster numbers. Time at AAA Charlotte wouldn’t hurt, but the 26-year-old should be able to find plenty of playing time with only Juan Uribe ahead of him at 2B, and a player who really belongs in a corner in Nick Swisher manning CF while Jerry Owens is on the DL. If everything breaks right and Ramirez can hit enough for Ozzie Guillen to overlook his defense and keep him in the lineup, he may yet garner some support for the award.

Deep Sleepers
(IE top prospects to watch who don’t have much of a prayer)

OF Wladimir Balentin – SEA
RHP Nick Blackburn – MIN
C Jeff Clement – SEA
* LHP Dana Eveland – OAK
* OF Carlos Gomez - MIN
OF Carlos Gonzalez – OAK
LHP Gio Gonzalez – OAK
RHP Luke Hochevar – KC
* RHP Philip Hughes - NYY
* OF Adam Jones - BAL
SS Jed Lowrie – BOS
RHP Adam Miller - CLE
* C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia - TEX
SS/3B Brandon Wood – LAA

* Rookie eligibility expired, but monitor closely anyways

Opening Day 2008

2008-03-25T13:10:00.004-04:00

The day is finally upon us, and the best seven months of the year are here. Enjoy them, because they pass quickly. Best of luck to all of your favorite teams in their quests for a playoff berth and a trophy, and stay tuned.

The Stud Who Hits Bombs

2008-03-25T06:43:00.002-04:00

Yes, Doug Mirabelli is a stud who hits bombs.

However, it's times like these when Red Sox Nation - or, shall I say, the portion of Red Sox Nation that has been faithful since sometime between Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS and the 2004 World Series parade - really gets on my nerves. Dougie is a backup catcher and on any other team would have likely had a career of little significance, and would certainly not be remembered a couple decades after his playing days had ended. And it's definitely cool that due to the fortune of playing for a large-market franchise during one of the defining moments of its history, he'll be forever enshrined in the memories of the faithful as an essential piece of the puzzle.

But can we please stop all this nonsense about calling Mirabelli's recent release a major mistake? I know it's hard to believe, but my guess is that the Red Sox front office - along with the other 29 teams that thus far have shown little interest in signing Doug - might know better than a niche of rabid fans. It may be blasphemy that a 37 year-old catcher's skills have eroded considerably, but the professional talent evaluators might have a little bit of insight here. And above all, a backup catcher is obviously the key cornerstone to any baseball team.

A familiar tone was used last year when fan favorite Trot Nixon signed with Cleveland. And don't get me wrong, replacement J.D. Drew isn't the most likable player around and didn't exactly light the world on fire. But one year later, Trot is struggling to hang around after batting a paltry .251/.342/.336 in 307 AB, only winning a bench job with Arizona due to Chad Tracy's DL stint. Drew was healthy all season and despite all the criticism levied against him was still fairly productive, batting .270/.373/.423 with considerably better defense. In light of Trot being a generally poor long-term investment and abysmal at the plate last season, his fanfare has surely died down among the pink hat/bandwagon crowd.

I loved watching Trot play as much as anyone (on those rare occasions when his back wasn't acting up and a righty was on the mound), but it's important to recognize that one of the easiest ways to get burned - with a salary cap small or large - is by becoming attached to players to the point that you pay for the steep part of their decline phase. In other words, while everyone loves the increasingly rare occurrence of a player spending all or most of his career with one team, it's rarely prudent to do so, based on financial cost, expected production and health, or both. Doug Mirabelli will be the answer to a lot of great trivia questions in twenty years. But please, let's not recast a serviceable but unspectacular backup catcher as anything more than he was, or more importantly than he will be going forward.

A Rhetorical Question

2008-03-20T19:13:00.002-04:00

So my last post was absurdly long, I get it. Here's an absurdly short one to make up for it in the form of a rhetorical question.

A high batting average is dependent on a batter collecting a large number of hits in his total at bats.
A large hits total is dependent on a batter posting a high batting average in a large number of total at bats.

Why are these two of the primary five offensive categories in standard fantasy baseball leagues when they measure exactly the same thing? The respondent with the best answer gets to pick the next subject I write about.

2008 AL East: The Longest Divisional Preview You've Ever Seen

2008-03-13T15:48:00.008-04:00

It’s finally here. But first, let me tell you some things I learned about writing a divisional preview:

(1) If you try to do any sort of sophisticated analysis with individual players (which I quickly realized was not feasible), you will write way more than you should.
(2) There’s a reason most media excludes middle relievers and the bench from its analysis and dedicates maybe a paragraph or two to each team.
(3) It’s difficult to summarize briefly your thoughts on a team with so many moving parts and so much potential variance.
(4) While I truly believe you can’t have a fair idea of a team’s 2008 chances without analyzing its 40-man roster (and not just its 25-man), taking the time to briefly research each of these players is foolish (I gave this up quickly, as you’ll notice).
(5) Save your work, save your work, SAVE YOUR WORK. Losing major progress - TWICE - was very frustrating and caused me to take more time off than I should have. Also, this all serves me write for waiting too long to start these because I wanted to see where Erik Bedard ended up.
(6) I feel like I could have made much better use of 8300 words than this. But it would have been far less entertaining to write.
(7) If any other previews are forthcoming (which I have not yet decided), they will be MUCH more bare bones. I just don’t have the free time to do this again before April 1^st, as much as I would like to.

One last note: I didn’t bother writing about Baltimore because they are without a doubt the worst team in this division, and probably the league. I will be dedicating a post to them shortly after the June draft to analyze how their rebuilding is going so far and what is left to do. For now, their season preview is: Nick Markakis, 100 losses, and a hell of a stadium. Without further ado…

1) Boston Red Sox

Projected 25-man Roster

C Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
2B Dustin Pedroia
SS Julio Lugo
3B Mike Lowell
LF Manny Ramirez
CF Coco Crisp
RF J.D. Drew
DH David Ortiz

C Doug Mirabelli
1B Sean Casey
INF Alex Cora
OF Bobby Kielty/OF Brandon Moss

RHP Josh Beckett
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka
RHP Tim Wakefield
LHP Jon Lester
RHP Clay Buchholz

RHP Kyle Snyder/RHP David Aardsma/RHP Bryan Corey
RHP Julian Tavarez
LHP Javier Lopez/LHP Craig Breslow
RHP Mike Timlin
RHP Manny Delcarmen
LHP Hideki Okajima
RHP Jonathan Papelbon

What Do We Have Here?
The Red Sox once again enter 2008 as a top 5 team in baseball, pairing an above-average offense with what projects to be an above-average pitching staff. Though the core of the offense continues to age, both David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are in fantastic shape following injury and performance-related concerns towards the end of 2007, respectively. Shortstop Julio Lugo can’t possibly be worse, and Jason Varitek and J.D. Drew were both still assets despite production that fell significantly short of expectations. Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia all performed well above expectations in 2007, and mild regression – especially in Lowell’s case – should be accepted. Overall, due to expected mild rebounds from Ramirez, Drew, and possibly Lugo, as well as regression from Lowell and Pedroia and/or Youkilis, the offensive production should be similar to the 867 runs scored the Red Sox put up in 2007, which was good for 2^nd in the AL and 4^th in MLB.

Indications from General Manager Theo Epstein and Manager Terry Francona are that Coco Crisp is still the starter in centerfield until further notice. Budding centerfielder and savior of Taco Bell lovers everywhere, prospect Jacoby Ellsbury has his work cut out for him to show the Sox that his bat is good enough to overlook the fantastic defense of Crisp, which by some metrics pegged him as twice as valuable to the Red Sox as Ramirez last season (6.0 Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), 10 Batting Runs Above Replacement (BRAR), 43 Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR) vs. 3.3 WARP, 34 BRAR, -4 FRAR, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus).

The pitching staff is led by Josh Beckett, who morphed into the true ace the Sox expected to receive when sending Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Harvey Garcia, and Jesus Delgado to the Marlins in January 2006, which of course “forced” the Sox to swallow the salary of Lowell, a middle of the order hitter with his productive days behind him. It’s funny how portions of trades often look in retrospect. The rest of the rotation, as many tend to be, is a host of question marks, led by Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K certainly fell short of the incredibly unrealistic expectations the baseball world had for him after the saga of his posting and signing last offseason, but was still a productive mid-rotation pitcher by any means. He should see some improvement his second time through the league and perhaps more of the flashes of dominance we saw throughout last year, even if he is unable to lower his 2.9 BB/9, which is the major factor holding him back from true stardom.

Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz round out the rotation, though all three are much less likely to throw 200 IP in 2008 than Beckett and Dice-K. Wakefield’s shoulder troubles last October have to be considered a concern, and hopefully can help to quiet the nonsense that a 41 year old’s arm can take any kind of abuse if he throws mostly pitches in the high 60s. Lester and Buchholz should be solid enough, if inconsistent. The main problem here is that precedent and common sense dictates that neither of these guys is going to throw 200 IP. This would have been much easier to manage when Curt Schilling was penciled into the rotation, and Buchholz especially could be closely monitored. Now the Sox will have to either bank on Schilling or reclamation project Bartolo Colon returning to adequacy, already count on their plan Bs and Cs in the upper minors for a considerable amount of innings, or make a move. Or they will have to push these guys a little harder than they would like to. Another worry here is that Lester has still failed to show he can walk fewer than four per game in the high minors, much less at the MLB level.

The pen returns twin relief aces Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima, joined by Manny Delcarmen, who emerged as a strong secondary setup man last summer. As long as the Sox can avoid overtaxing the big two - which Delcarmen and a number of options as multiple inning middle relievers such as Julian Tavarez, Kyle Snyder, and David Aardsma should help with - the pen should once again be a strength of the team. A repeat of their MLB-leading 657 runs allowed in 2007 is probably pushing it, but it’s easy to see this staff hovering around the 700 mark again. It’s also easy to see Buchholz break out and Matsuzaka take a big step forward, and it’s additionally easy to see a couple of injuries trainwreck this rotation to near-2006 proportions. There is a lot of variation here in my opinion, and more than the major media may be giving it credit for.

What Would I Do?
* I would go back in time and take better advantage of a CF market that dried up surprisingly quickly. Ellsbury is going to have to rot in AAA for a little bit, or Crisp is going to become an unhappy camper. Jay Payton part deux?

* I would lean heavily towards Bobby Kielty for the 4^th OF role. While I am anxious to see what Brandon Moss does with a roster spot and think he pretty much is what he is (little projection left), a lefty who struggles with lefties really doesn’t match up well as a platoon partner for Drew. Additionally, though he is stretched there, Kielty is more of an option in CF than Moss for when Crisp needs a day off, although occasionally pushing Drew to center may still be their best option here.

* I would lean heavily towards carrying David Aardsma out of ST. We know what Kyle Snyder can do. He does a great job of throwing a garbage inning every ten days and putting together one of the most deceivingly good ERAs in recent memory. Given that pitchers with similarly deceptive ERAs are making millions on the open market, it’s a little disappointing the Sox couldn’t have spun him for a C+ prospect somewhere. Aardsma has his own control problems, but has a long history of striking out nearly a batter an inning. At age 26, it’s worth seeing if he can finally put it together with the help of a fantastic pitching coach, John Farrell.

* If Francona insists on continuing this irrational LOOGY fetish, let’s at least finally give Craig Breslow a roster spot. Like Aardsma, this guy is rotting in the minors for no good reason. He’s done a fair job in his brief trials, strikes out batters like crazy, and is strong against righties. He’s Javier Lopez with a little bit of potential left.

Reinforcements
RHP Curt Schilling - Out until at least the All-Star Break. A disintegrating biceps tendon and possible rotator cuff tear might mean the end of an effective Schilling. Little should be counted of from him as any productive innings will be gravy.

RHP Bartolo Colon - Signed to a minor league deal, very unlikely to break camp. A pitcher successful due to his high-90s fastball overshadowing mediocre secondary pitches, he’s not a great bet to be more than a below-average pitcher now that he’s in the 88-91 range. Still, you can’t complain about a flier on him as a big market team, but it would also be unwise to count on him for much of anything.

RHP Justin Masterson - A sinker-slider artist who some see as a mid-rotation starter and others as a setup reliever, he will start the year in AAA Pawtucket and should be ready when the need for fresh arms arises.

RHP Michael Bowden - 21 years old for all of 2008, Bowden is probably going to start at AA Portland, but one would have to imagine he is second in line for a promotion to fill a rotation spot unless (a) Colon shows flashes of brilliance or (b) the team feels like rekindling the David Pauley era.

INF Jed Lowrie - Lowrie is ready to start somewhere in the infield for someone. Aside from an injury-plagued 2006 during which his plate discipline remained strong, he has mashed at every level and should be a fit anywhere in the infield. He is great Julio Lugo insurance.

OF Jacoby Ellsbury - Ellsbury should be starting somewhere, but he offers the same skill set as Coco Crisp, and needs to be playing regularly. He’ll wait for an injury or a trade involving either him or Coco.

Given that this write up doesn’t touch lesser prospects or minor league free agents, the Sox look like they’re in great shape in terms of depth. Once again, they only look to be in deep trouble in the event of a catcher injury, but even then Dusty Brown would be an adequate short term stop gap due to his defensive prowess and the bat that is slowly coming around in Pawtucket. The key to this team is the health of the pitching staff, as whether Masterson, Bowden and Colon are first up in May/June or late August will say a lot about what kind of shape this team is going to be in come the end of the season.

The Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of
For a big market team like the Red Sox, it’s difficult to find a deep sleeper. I’ll go with David Aardsma here. This is a veteran team with a bunch of household names, but if Aardsma is able to beat out Snyder for the long man job, I think he could seriously surprise if he is able to take a step forward with his command. Made the 22^nd overall selection of the 2003 draft, the former Rice closer broke camp with the Giants in 2004 after just 18 innings in the California League (Hi-A). Though he experienced some early success, he began to struggle and was sent back to AAA Fresno where he struck out nearly a batter an inning, but walked 4.91 per 9. Aardsma, who hits 99 MPH on the gun, has consistently struck out over or close to a batter per inning, but his command has evaded him throughout his career (10.02 K/9, 4.73 BB/9 for the White Sox in 2007).

Odds are that his command is what he is, but at age 26, even a minor step forward with his command could turn him into the effective setup man the Giants thought they drafted nearly five years ago. Given that the cost to acquire him was virtually nothing, there’s little harm in giving him a shot out of ST as he is out of options. It probably won’t work out, but the upside is worth cutting ties with Snyder to find out.

Overall Outlook
The Red Sox again look to be the presumptive division favorite, but I think this race will be quite a bit closer than Sox fans would like to admit. I see few scenarios where the Sox do not win 90-something games. To be more specific, I’d narrow it down to 92-95. However, the development of both the Yankees and the Sox young arms as well as health and luck is going to determine how the 1-2 AL East punch finishes this season.

2) New York Yankees

Projected 25-man Roster
C Jorge Posada
1B Jason Giambi
2B Robinson Cano
SS Derek Jeter
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Johnny Damon
CF Melky Cabrera
RF Bobby Abreu
DH Hideki Matsui

C Jose Molina
1B Shelly Duncan
INF Wilson Betemit
3B Morgan Ensberg/OF Jason Lane/INF Alberto Gonzalez

RHP Chien-Ming Wang
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Mike Mussina
RHP Phil Hughes
RHP Joba Chamberlain

RHP Jonathan Albaladejo/RHP Chris Britton/RHP Edwar Ramirez
RHP Brian Bruney/RHP Ross Ohlendorf
LHP Heath Phillips/LHP Billy Traber/LHP Kei Igawa
RHP Ian Kennedy
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
RHP LaTroy Hawkins
RHP Mariano Rivera

What Do We Have Here?
The Yankees also boast a top 5 team, returning a frighteningly powerful offense that scored an MLB high 968 runs in 2007. For some perspective, this team collectively – including its subpar bench and pitchers – hit .290/.366/.463. Jose Guillen was slightly worse than this at .290/.353/.460, and was given a lucrative 3 year $36 million contract by the Royals for it. This offense is unreal good, and there’s little reason to believe its performance floor is less than a top 5 offense overall.

Jorge Posada had a particularly nasty year last year, and I think how far his performance regresses – because it’s hard to expect a 36 year old backstop to mash to the tone of .338/.426/.543 again – is going to be a key for this team. The Yankees brought in former Angel Jose Molina as Posada’s backup, important because the team needs to give Posada more rest in 2008 to give him the best chance to put up another monster year (he played in 144 games in 2007). Offensively, this projects to be the best infield in the majors, but the defense is another story. Say what you will about Derek Jeter’s intangibles and offensive prowess, his range is inferior at shortstop and he continues to give back a decent amount of his value in playing the position. Jason Giambi is another story all together, and should be a true adventure as an everyday first baseman. Additionally, though he’s better hidden in left field, Johnny Damon’s arm and range both continue to get worse with age. This isn’t to say that the Sox defense is elite, but there is a discernible difference between the two defenses, and it helps to close the offensive gap at least a little bit.

The bench will boast one and possibly two power bats in Shelley Duncan and either Morgan Ensberg or Jason Lane. If Giambi continues what looks like a potentially steep decline phase (as is often the case with one-dimensional sluggers), Duncan and one of the two or Wilson Betemit could become a formidable first base platoon at the position and make Giambi an afterthought.

The pitching rotation is frighteningly similar to the Red Sox in that it features one genuine frontline starter (Chien-Ming Wang and Beckett), one mediocre veteran who has both performance and health question marks (Mike Mussina and Wakefield), and one young pitcher regarded recently as the legitimate top pitching prospect in the game (Phillip Hughes and Buchholz). Both rotations also feature a #2 starter likely to throw 200 innings and who performed similarly in 2007 (Andy Pettitte and Matsuzaka), but because at 35 Pettitte is very unlikely to improve upon his performance, Matsuzaka has to get the nod here due to his chance at developing into an ace. Similarly, while Lester is a nice pitcher for the Sox and could become a nice mid-rotation starter with some command improvement, Joba Chamberlain absolutely blows him out of the water in terms of both potential and present ability.

The comparison isn’t perfect, but looking more closely at the two rotations illustrate just how closely matched these staffs are. Those calling the Red Sox definite AL East favorites aren’t looking closely enough at the ~900 innings these 10 pitchers will be throwing in 2008.

The Yankees pen is a potential weakness, though one easy fix would be to keep Joba in the pen and give Ian Kennedy the 5^th starter job. Instead, the Yanks will have to count on one of two questionable veterans to carry the eighth to closer Mariano Rivera this season. Kyle Farnsworth, after a breakout 2005 season for the Tigers and Braves, has seen his GB and K rates drop significantly in consecutive years as his BB and HR rates have risen accordingly. These trends, as you may realize, don’t bode particularly well for Farnsworth’s future, as at this point he should be looked at as a middle reliever. In light of this, the team brought in LaTroy Hawkins over the winter, giving him nearly $4 million after his best season in years for the Rockies.

Hawkins was very successful last year despite a middling K rate – out of character if you remember the Hawkins who was a dominant Twins and Cubs setup man for a few years. He was able to do this because he generated 50% more groundballs in 2007 than he has ever managed to (previous range: 38.5% - 46.5%; 2007: 63.3%). He additionally generated a 15.8% line drive percentage; most analysts will tell you a number this low is unsustainable. Given his lengthy career history and trends, I tend to believe Hawkins is due to come back to Earth this season. Both of these relievers putting up mediocre years would mean trouble for the Yankee pen.

Though they have a number of solid righties who are options as middle relievers, it's hard to see this team going against the conventional wisdom of carrying at least one (if not two) southpaws in the pen (Note: The Padres have largely ignored this dogma and put together some of the best no-name pens in the game over the past several years behind closer Trevor Hoffman). The best lefty candidates I could find are Heath Phillips and Billy Traber, equally uninteresting options. Kei Igawa could also be an option here, but given that he is at this point struggling to retire college hitters in spring training, it's hard to count on him for much of anything.

Righties Chris Britton and Brian Bruney have already experienced some success at the MLB level and have setup potential. Edwar Ramirez, Jeff Karstens, and Ross Ohlendorf all are solid if unspectacular prospects. Jonathan Albaladejo put together a fine season with a strong K rate for Pittsburgh's AA and AAA teams during his age 24 season before being traded for low upside pitching prospect Tyler Clippard. I have very little confidence in the two currently due to receive the bulk of the 7th and 8th innings for the Yankees as of now, but they have a very interesting corps of middle relief guys who may step in to pick up the slack as the year goes on.

What Would I Do?
* Chamberlain in the 8th, Kennedy as the 5th starter - I feel most strongly about this. The Yankees have stated they'd like to keep Joba throwing 140-160 IP (as would any responsible front office), and this is the easiest way to do it. Not to mention that this immediately gives the Yanks the obvious relief ace that they lack for the time being. Chamberlain can always reenter the rotation when an injury strikes in May or June, which will result in him hitting his innings target while being late enough in the year for the team to have a better idea about who can pick up the slack in the pen.

* Carry Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, and Jonathan Albaladejo as middle relievers - don't take a lefty if you don't have the personnel to make it worthwhile. At least Traber posted a .567 OPS vs LHP, but a mediocre LOOGY is of questionable utility to a roster. All three of these righties have setup potential if/when Farnsworth and Hawkins falter, but they're perfectly adequate middle relievers if they don't make any progress. None of the three becoming more useful seems unlikely.

* Swap Matsui and Damon - Damon's range is deteriorating, his arm was already very weak, and his hard-nosed style of play means he is vulnerable to injury as long as he is in the field. Though he'd make for a pretty unimpressive DH, at least swapping roles here would keep him healthy and in the lineup.

* Don't be too patient with Jason Giambi - He has negative value defensively, and exhibits the old player skills (one-dimensional slow injury-prone slugger) that indicate he may very well be in a steep decline phase. An S. Duncan and Miranda/Betemit/Ensberg platoon would be a big defensive upgrade, and potentially be more potent offensively as well.

* Give the bench job to Morgan Ensberg. Jason Lane is basically rendered unnecessary by fellow righty Shelley Duncan, and while Alberto Gonzalez wouldn't be a terrible utility man, Betemit is a fine backup and should receive virtually all of the at bats that Cano, Jeter, and Rodriguez don't receive.

Reinforcements
LHP Carl Pavano – Given precedent, you can count on Carl for 6 1/3 IP, 11 ER in 2008. This may be optimistic.

RHP Alan Horne
RHP Jeff Marquez

RHP Humberto Sanchez – The prize of the deal that sent Gary Sheffield to the Tigers, Sanchez is still on his way back from TJ surgery. He still isn’t going to be pitching for a while, but barring setbacks, should be an option down the stretch out of the pen. Very well regarded before his injury.

RHP Daniel McCutchen
RHP Kevin Whelan
RHP David Robertson
RHP Jeff Karstens

1B Juan Miranda / 1B/3B Eric Duncan – Both candidates to form a 1B platoon with Shelley Duncan should Giambi falter. Miranda mashes righties, and though he was mediocre in AAA last season, people forget that it was Eric’s age 22 season since he has been around for so long.

OF Brett Gardner – Centerfielder with solid assets in speed and defense. Probably not a regular because he hasn’t ever done a whole lot at the plate, but an adequate stopgap in the case of injury at the MLB level.

The Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of
Chris Britton is MLB setup material – in fact, he’s already been one. Britton built on an excellent minor league career by posting a nice 3.35 ERA and 1.17 WHIP backed by strong peripherals (17 BB/41 K in 53.2 IP) for the Orioles in 2006. Despite serving as their most dependable reliever besides closer Chris Ray, Britton was inexplicably dealt to the Yankees prior to the 2007 season for Jaret Wright, an interesting move for a perpetually rebuilding team (Editor’s Note: Wright surrendered 8 earned runs and 11 total in 10.1 IP in 2007). Meanwhile, Britton spent virtually the entire year in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, compiling his standard excellent numbers.

Britton was drafted in the 8^th round in 2001. Following a couple of unremarkable years in Rookie ball, Chris went under the knife in 2003 to remove bone chips from his elbow. Chris broke out in 2005, posting an amazing line of 23 BB to 110 Ks in just 78.2 IP in the Carolina League. He vaulted to MLB after just 16 innings of building on this success at AA Bowie, and didn’t skip a beat. Britton has proven himself in both MLB and MiLB as a strikeout pitcher with strong command, a lethal combination. Though he has tended to struggle a bit against lefties throughout his career, his dominance against right-handers means he belongs in a big league pen.

Overall Outlook
This is going to be a close race either way, and I have a hard time seeing the Yankees below 90 wins as well. The three major factors in determining this race will be the young arms, health, and luck, and while I think it’s fairly unimportant to guess who might finish first here, the point is that it’s going to be a tight race come September. I think anyone expecting more than 5 games between these teams is foolish.

3) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

25-man Roster
C Dioneer Navarro
1B Carlos Pena
2B Akinori Iwamura
SS Jason Bartlett
3B Willy Aybar
LF Carl Crawford
CF B.J. Upton
RF Jonny Gomes
DH Cliff Floyd

C Mike DiFelice/C Shawn Riggans/C Josh Paul
1B/3B Joel Guzman/1B-3B Eric Hinske
OF Justin Ruggiano/OF John Rodriguez
INF Ben Zobrist

LHP Scott Kazmir
RHP James Shields
RHP Matt Garza
LHP Andy Sonnanstine
RHP Edwin Jackson

RHP Scott Dohmann/RHP Gary Glover/RHP Grant Balfour
RHP Juan Salas/RHP Chad Orvella/RHP Jason Hammel/LHP J.P. Howell
LHP Trever Miller
RHP Al Reyes
RHP Dan Wheeler
RHP Troy Percival

What Do We Have Here?
What we have is the most exciting team in the Majors as of March 2008. This team has the best pool of prospects in the game, and it isn’t even close. Not to mention that the pipeline shows no signs of drying up anytime soon. Odds are that they’re going to need a year or two to be favorites for a playoff spot, but this team has the potential to be scary good for a number of years as they graduate more top prospects.

The Rays will start at least eight position players under age 30 in 2008, but that isn’t by any means an indictment of their offense. B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena both developed into legitimate middle-of-the-order threats in 2007, and look to be fixtures for years to come. They should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs this season as second baseman Akinori Iwamura and left fielder Carl Crawford offer speed, gap power, and on-base skills. Catcher Dioneer Navarro disappointed many last season, but lost in poor final numbers was his impressive .285/.340/.475 2^nd half line to follow a horrendous start. Former Twin Jason Bartlett offers a badly-needed upgrade to the club’s defense, vital as the team grooms its young pitchers, and Rocco Baldelli still has some nice skills if he can stay healthy for any length of time [EDIT: It doesn’t look like he’s going to be. I’ve revised the depth chart to show both Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes as everyday players. Justin Ruggiano and Fernando Perez better stay sharp in AAA – they’ll be needed].

The most interesting position might be third base, where the Rays front office is debating between a platoon of Willy Aybar and Eric Hinske and premium prospect Evan Longoria. Longoria is a superstar waiting in the wings, but after watching Alex Gordon struggle to meet lofty expectations in Kansas City after skipping over AAA entirely in 2007, they may elect to be a little conservative here. I have listed some combination of Willy Aybar, Joel Guzman, and Eric Hinske as a 3B platoon stopgap, but even if Tampa Bay elects to start Longoria at AAA Durham, he should be able to push these guys out of a job with ease. Overall, this lineup should be fairly good with a bunch of upside. With Baldelli and Floyd obviously injury prone, another OF/DH option such as signing Barry Bonds or picking up optionless slugger Justin Huber from the Royals might be a wise idea.

Don't look now, but the Rays finally have a strong rotation. Scott Kazmir and James Shields are both legitimate front rotation starters and are just 24 and 26, respectively. Picking up Matt Garza for outfielder Delmon Young was a nice strength-for-weakness deal that gives the team a third starter with great stuff and upside. While front-runners Andy Sonnanstine and Edwin Jackson have their flaws, they still have chances to develop into pieces that fit with the Rays' long term plan, and are more than adequate as place-holders until top pitching prospects Wade Davis, Jacob McGee, and David Price are knocking on the door. The pitching depth this team has assembled is an embarrassment of wealth.

The pen also should be much improved over previous years. Gone are the days when the team has had to trot out sub-replacement level pitcher after sub-replacement level pitcher to eat innings, such as in 2005 when the team suffered through 73.1 innings of Travis Harper (6.75 ERA), 109.1 innings of Seth McClung (6.59), and 71 innings of Dewon Brazelton (7.61). Troy Percival is no sure thing going forward, but was dominant for St. Louis in his return last season, and is on a low-risk two year deal. Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes, and Trever Miller are all locks for the pen. While all three have question marks as setup men, this is by far the closest the Rays have had to a competent pen during their existence.

Then, a whole host of interesting arms who aren’t going to crack the rotation – J.P. Howell, Juan Salas, Chad Orvella, Jason Hammel, et all – should lock down one or two of the final two or three spots. Since I’m trying to be more brief than I have been so far, I’ll just say that all of these guys have the stuff to succeed in non-impact roles at the MLB level, though the results have been very mixed so far. At the very least, they will make good depth options in-season at Durham to prevent the team from rushing its gems to accommodate for injury. One would also expect to see one of Scott Dohmann and Gary Glover in the pen as your typical mediocre innings-eater. It’s not there yet, but as the pitching continues to develop, things are only going to trend up.

What Would I Do?
* Go back in time and KEEP RUGGIANO IN BIG LEAGUE CAMP. This seemed like a really good idea when the Rays were counting on Baldelli, Floyd, and Gomes to cover three positions. Now that they’re counting on two of them to stay healthy after Baldelli’s announcement that his career may be in jeopardy, it’s a no-brainer. Ruggiano has done nothing but mash in the minors for years. He lacks upside, but the Rays need to take a look and see if he can fit as a regular. Otherwise, they’re one Cliff Floyd injury away from scrambling.

* Resist the temptation to hand third base over to Longoria. Longoria is a hell of a prospect, and I can’t wait to see him in the bigs. But a little bit of AAA time won’t kill him (Alex Gordon’s first few weeks still haunt me), and more importantly, Tampa Bay is still probably a year or two away from having more than an outside shot at the playoffs. Preserving his arbitration clock for a couple of months and letting him unseat the mediocre 3B platoon in June or July will keep him under their control for an extra season.

* Seriously consider bringing in Kenny Lofton. This team is hurting on OF depth, and while I want Ruggiano to be carried, I also don’t think making Ben Zobrist your primary backup CF is all that sound of a plan. I have no idea how this bench is going to shake out. Either they go with Longoria at 3^rd and round out a bench with C/Aybar/Hinske/Zobrist/corner OF[Ruggiano], or they stick with 7 pitchers, go with the 3B platoon of Aybar and Hinske, either sign Lofton or live with Zobrist, and send Ruggiano back to AAA. It’ll be interesting to see. I’d bring in Lofton cheap, stick to the plan of Longoria in AAA, and go with a bench of Riggans/Aybar-Hinske/Zobrist/Lofton/Ruggiano, with Ruggiano taking Zobrist’s roster spot (Aybar as backup SS) if 7 pitchers are deemed necessary.

* Don’t hesitate to cut bait with the veteran relievers. I don’t know enough about the individual pitchers to have a major preference for bullpen spots 5-7 (I would probably go with one of Salas/Orvella, Hammel, and either Howell or Glover here), but the Rays have had this group of pitchers for quite some time and still can’t be sure if any of them should be fixtures in their long-term plans. This is exactly the year to sort these types of things out. The younger pitchers are all a couple years removed from their first opportunities, and they now have a much better defense behind them to rely on rather than fear. Since the team will be much better than usual but likely not a 90-win team either way, it’s time to figure out just how much to rely on some of the non-Kazmirs and Garzas to give the team a better idea of where it is next offseason, when even more young talent starts to push and claw at the 25-man.

Reinforcements
LHP David Price
RHP Wade Davis
LHP Jacob McGee
RHP Jeff Niemann
RHP Chris Mason
RHP Eduardo Morlan
RHP Mitch Talbot
C John Jaso
SS Reid Brignac
3B Evan Longoria
OF Rocco Baldelli
OF Fernando Perez

The scary thing about this depth chart is it doesn’t include a number of the players like Riggans, Zobrist, Howell, Hammel, et all who are decent fallbacks even if they don’t crack the 25-man. The Rays have a couple of quality players who should be near-ready or ready to cover an injury at any position. Oh, by the way, this depth chart includes five no-brainer top-100 prospets in Price, Davis, McGee, Longoria, in addition to the handful of prospects who at least belong in the discussion for the end / honorable mentions section. I doubt there is another team quite this well off in the event of an injury disaster. This is a significant reason why I think an 85+ win season is completely reasonable.

The Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of
About a third of the Opening Day roster. No, in all seriousness, let’s take a closer look at Justin Ruggiano since I seem to be higher on him than most. Ruggiano was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 24^th round in 2004 following his senior year at Texas A&M. Ruggiano was later traded to Tampa Bay in 2006 as a throw-in in the deal that sent along Navarro and the infamous Jae Weong Seo in exchange for Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson (who knew you could actually get something for nothing?). He has never been especially young for his league at any level, but he has also never failed to produce.

Ruggiano put together a monster campaign in his full-season debut in 2005 (age 23), splitting the year between hi-A Vero Beach and AA Jacksonville. Though admittedly Vero Beach is a hitter-friendly park in an otherwise pitcher-friendly league, Ruggiano actually improved his production following both the level jump and a move to a park producing runs at a 10% rate below average. All told, his full season debut was good for a .323/.409/.521 line, and he even swiped 24 bases in 32 tries. The major negative here were Ruggiano’s 121 strikeouts in 465 PA, though it’s not as if he wasn’t walking enough. After a slow start in AA in 2006, Justin apparently took offense to being traded from the Dodgers as he exploded for a .333/.442/.630 line in his final 31 games with AA Montgomery. Better yet, his BB/K improved from 45/121 to 65/103, and was especially strong towards the end of season. Ruggiano spent all of 2007 in Durham outside of a brief September trial during his age-25 season, and while it was his first taste of AAA pitching and he finished with a line of .309/.386/.502, his BB/K ratio regressed to 53/151.

Here are my reasons for optimism with Ruggiano: he has never failed to draw walks or hit for average in lieu of his large strikeout totals. I would be much more concerned with his plate discipline were on of those two statements not true. Instead, you’re looking at an average defender with some speed and solid plate discipline and contact ability. It seems to me that he is one of those players lacking one major plus tool and any major weakness. If he can get an extended shot – which is going to need to come very soon – he can settle in as a regular for a few years with the potential to put up a really nice season seemingly out of nowhere. Keep an eye on him, I have a lot of faith in his bat translating to MLB success.

Overall Outlook
I am so excited about watching this team continue to develop, because this is the best small market core we’ve seen in years. If they can hold onto their core players through arbitration and continue to do such a phenomenal job with scouting and player development, there is every reason for the Red Sox and Yankees to fear what the future has in store for them. This will certainly be an interesting development to watch in the arguments for and against revenue sharing with respect to competitive balance.

I feel really good about this team, but while I wouldn’t be shocked to see them get some career years and put together a low-90s season to sneak into the Wild Card berth, I think they should be looking at 2009 as the beginning of their run. I’m expecting 84 to 87 wins as Tampa Bay puts together their first winning season ever, and if they can get a proper feel for their glut of non-star talent at the AAA/MLB level, they’ll have a better idea of what they should be buying this offseason. Also, this seems like as good a place as any to note that emphasizing team defense while breaking in a bunch of young pitchers seems like a fabulous idea. Not that it will be great, but it’s hard to be worse than some of what last year had to offer.

4) Toronto Blue Jays

25-man Roster
C Gregg Zaun
1B Lyle Overbay
2B Aaron Hill
SS David Eckstein
3B Scott Rolen
LF Matt Stairs
CF Vernon Wells
RF Alex Rios
DH Frank Thomas

C Rod Barajas
INF John McDonald
INF Marco Scutaro
OF Reed Johnson/OF Shannon Stewart

RHP Roy Halladay
RHP A.J. Burnett
RHP Dustin McGowan
RHP Shaun Marcum
RHP Jesse Litsch

RHP Randy Wells/RHP Brian Wolfe/RHP Armando Benitez
RHP Brandon League
LHP Brian Tallet
LHP Scott Downs
RHP Jason Frasor
RHP Jeremy Accardo
LHP B.J. Ryan

What Do We Have Here?
What the people banking on a 3^rd place finish are ignoring – that the Jays once again are likely sporting a very mediocre offense. Seriously, where is the upside here? Alex Rios broke out last season, though a closer look shows his numbers are substantially inflated by murdering left-handed pitching. Vernon Wells, entering his age 29 season, is coming off a very disappointing season, and let’s face it: the man has had two great seasons, one alright one, and three mediocre to poor seasons. At what point are expectations lowered? It’s hard to picture Matt Stairs being better than he was last year (admittedly a pretty useful player) and very easy to see him disappoint as a 40-year old who is useless both as a fielder and against lefties.

Injury-prone and aging Troy Glaus was replaced by injury-prone and aging Scott Rolen in a challenge trade; at least Rolen can be counted on for plus defense when he can take the field. And I’ll bet my hat that none of the remaining five regulars are well above-average relative to position in 2008; Thomas has the same injury and age questions, though he’ll likely hit fairly well when he can play. The problem is that the bar is raised that much higher for expected performance for a full-time DH.

Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, and Dustin McGowan form as formidable a top-3 as any, though health questions with Burnett and McGowan linger. Dustin, if he can throw close to 200 innings in 2008, is an exceptional breakout candidate and a great late pick in fantasy leagues. The problem is that Casey Janssen tore his labrum and is going to miss the season. Instead of potentially knocking likely 5^th starter Jesse Litsch (he of the 3.81 ERA covering his 4.05 K/9 last season) back to AAA Syracuse, the Jays now have to count on 200 IP from both Litsch and Shaun Marcum, a solid back rotation starter with little in the way of additional upside. Janssen gave the bullpen 72.2 innings of baseball at a 2.35 ERA, innings that now look like they’re going to end up in the mediocre right arms of Brian Wolfe, Armando Benitez, and/or Brian Wolfe. At least the Jays have B.J. Ryan back in the closer’s spot, though since he is well ahead of schedule on recovering from his TJ surgery, it would be fairly optimistic to assume he suffers no setbacks before or during the season.

Overall, the lineup has a couple of plus hitters with a lot of average players. The rotation features at least two and likely three very good starting pitchers, one solid one, and one likely mediocre to poor one. In other words, it’s probably well above average. The bullpen looks to be decent enough, though an off year from one of the primary setup men and/or an injury to Ryan will pose significant problems. It’s a decent enough team on paper; the real problem is what happens if and when injuries strike. Fast forward to the Reinforcements section if you’d like to see the true reason for my pessimism.

What Would I Do?
* Full rebuild – It’s going to take a lot more than this to compete in the AL East. The state of the farm and a number of aging and injury-prone players indicate that a playoff berth is almost certainly not in the cards in 2008, and the battle is only uphill from this year.
* I would strongly try to sell the Mets (or any other contender seriously hurting on outfielders) on a Stairs or Reed Johnson acquisition; though their interest in these playrs is likely lukewarm at best, I think that given the first statement, giving the 25 year-old Adam Lind a full-time gig in 2008 is imperative. The Jays should be willing to give up either of these players or Thomas for very little in order to clear the way.
* Lock up McGowan and Rios through their arbitration years – they are the only players worth building around here. Try to establish some cost certainty.

Reinforcements
LHP Ricky Romero
LHP David Purcey
RHP Josh Banks
RHP Gustavo Chacin
C Curtis Thigpen
C Robinzon Diaz
OF Ryan Patterson
OF Buck Coats
OF/DH Adam Lind

In looking at the projected 25-man roster, I identified a number of major injury risks (Thomas, Glaus, Ryan, Burnett) and pointed out a number of other players who were at risk of failing to meet expectations. So what’s plan B? Well, it’s a really good thing the Jays picked up Marco Scutaro from the A’s in a salary dump, as they’d otherwise be a Troy Glaus hangnail away from John McDonald playing regularly. There’s really no one on this list of players who might make more than a replacement-level contribution this year besides slugger Adam Lind, who is preferably only a DH. Non-coincidentally, no one besides Lind figures to factor into the Jays long-term core. So if and when Burnett’s elbow flares up again, which pitcher with warts would you like to see make a dozen starts? Let’s say with Troy Glaus on the DL, David Eckstein needs to miss a couple weeks with a hamstring strain. Scutaro and McDonald are now playing regularly. You’re looking at AAAA fodder filling in as a backup, and in all likelihood starting twice a week until Eck can return.

In any given season a team will need to cycle through several relievers as injuries and ineffectiveness strike, and it’s tough to see a number of remotely reliable options here waiting in the wings. This reminds me of the Sox teams of recent years (yes, including 2004). Despite a great team on paper, any year when injuries struck – think 2001 and 2006 – the team suffered an all-out collapse due in large part to an unproductive farm system. Upper minors depth is invaluable in keeping a team competitive through the grind of a season; remember that in 2004, the Red Sox front 5 started 157 of their 162 games. Imagine what might have been had 100, 200, or even more of those innings been covered by the mediocre backup options available to them. A series of poor drafts is catching up to the Jays, and it looks like J.P. Riccardi’s infamous five-year plan may need further revision. On the plus side, Travis Snider and a number of players from the 2007 draft look to be a nice start.

The Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of
I’d pick a more obscure player if one justified it, but instead I’ll expand upon why #3 starter Dustin McGowan is still potentially underrated and has room for growth. McGowan was drafted 33^rd overall by the Blue Jays in 2000 out of high school and signed just fifteen days later. After a brief and rocky audition in the Pioneer League, McGowan moved to Auburn of the New York-Penn League for 2001, where he struck out batters at close to 11 K/9, but walked an incredible 6.58 per 9 IP. McGowan shaved a full three points off his BB/9 during his full-season debut at Charleston in 2002 and continued to baffle hitters at the plate with 163 strikeouts in 148 innings. McGowan broke out in 2003, splitting the year between hi-A and AA. Despite his strikeout rate falling below 9 per 9 IP, further refining his command by shaving yet another full point off his walk rate (now 2.58 BB/9) led to big success as McGowan made 14 very effective starts at AA New Haven at just 21 years old. McGowan was rated the 36^th prospect overall by Baseball America and tops among the Jays.

Of course, all that changed when McGowan tore an elbow ligament restarting 2004 in AA and missed most of the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Returning from Tommy John surgery, McGowan was fairly effective in hi-A and AA after a 13-month layoff. As most 23 year-old pitchers do, McGowan had some rough patches during his first taste of the show. He was yo-yoed between the pen and the rotation in 2006, which may have played a role in his command regressing (4.18 in AAA, 8.23 (!) in MLB). Seemingly out of options entering camp in 2007, McGowan was seen as potential waiver wire material coming out of Spring Training. However, once Toronto was awarded an additional option year, McGowan began the season in AAA before coming up in May to finally secure his rotation spot.

McGowan throws a mid-90s fastball with sinking action, a slider, a curve, and a change. After another rocky spring, McGowan settled down and thrived through the summer months with a 7.99 K/9 in the 2^nd half, and was able to shave over a full run off his ERA. McGowan generates an above-average number of groundballs (53% in 2007) and based on his recent track record appears to be settling in between 7 and 8 K/9. As long as his command stays strong, these are all the ingredients for a very nice starting pitcher. Dropping his walk rate below 3 and/or upping his GB% further would give him ace potential. Either way, he is absolutely someone to target in fantasy leagues and a great breakout candidate for 2008.

Overall Outlook
Check out Will Carroll’s Team Health Report for Toronto over at Baseball Prospectus today. This team is a sea of red injury risks with little in the way of upper minors depth to compensate for it. While the potential is here for this team to finish third ahead of Tampa Bay, it would require a lot of good luck and some fluke performances/career years that would be foolish to count on. Most likely, this will be a very good pitching staff when healthy coupled with an aging and often disappointing offense. I see 78-82 wins as a reasonable guess for this team, give or take a couple based on extremely good or bad luck with health.
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If you made it this far, I'm very proud of you, and I'm honored. Boy was this a stupid idea.